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Week 3 Picks

It’s Week Three of the 2006 NFL season. Usually by now we can tell a few things about a few teams. For example:

n The Packers are bad. Really bad. But not nearly as bad as the Raiders. In fact, if these two teams were to meet on the field (which, sadly, will not happen this year short of a cataclysmic Super Bowl run by both teams), I would expect no less than a 21 point Packers win. And this is the team that just lost back to back games at home to New Orleans (by 7, though it wasn’t that close) and Chicago (by 26, but it wasn’t that close). That’s how bad the Raiders are.

n On the flip side, the Bears, Ravens, Chargers and Bengals are all very good. Of all those teams, I’d take the Bears and the Bengals to go the furthest in the playoffs, and a Chicago/Cincinnati Super Bowl isn’t out of the question.

n Steve Smith might be the most important player in the NFL. The Panthers were the hot pick to win the NFC (myself included). Smith has missed both of the Panthers’ first two games. They lost both, to Atlanta and Minnesota. Now, admittedly, the Falcons look awful good so far. But Minnesota stole a game that neither team seemed interested in putting in their win column. Carolina needs Smith back, and at 100%, or they’re looking at a very, very long year.

n I would not be surprised to see Jay Cutler starting next week. The Patriots have had one thing on their mind since the schedule was released – September 24^th, 2006, they can get their REVENGE. Trust me on this one. New England has been looking forward to this game all offseason long. I’ll elaborate more below, but the Pats want this one bad, and if it means making Jake Plummer have a nervous breakdown on the field, then so much the better.

n The Dolphins, Panthers and Broncos might be the most over hyped, overrated teams in years. We’ll obviously know more in two to four more weeks, but for now, they all look bad. Really bad. Not quite in Raiders territory, but still…

n I couldn’t hate the Eagles more after last week’s implosion. They handed that game to the Giants. In fact, just the Rams and Eagles alone cost me over $600 in easy parlays that I should have hit. Four different bets that only missed because those two teams just decided to roll over. And for the record, the Plaxico Burress OT touchdown was Offensive Pass Interference, but the refs were so Gawd-awful in that game that they just swallowed their whistles on the most important play. Naturally.

n I was reminded today by my friend Andy about how badly the Texans botched the draft last year. He mentioned that he thought the Jets should have taken DeAngelo Williams in the draft, but that he couldn’t argue with two stud lineman instead. To which I went into my tirade about how the Jets easily could have moved John Abraham to Houston along with the #4 pick to get the #1 and Reggie Bush. Then Houston could have signed Abraham (for less than they paid Mario Williams) and still drafted either The Brick at #4 or someone else (maybe still Williams) and the Jets could have gotten the best marketing magnet the NFL has seen in twenty years. Plus, I wouldn’t be subjected to roughly 26,174 different commercials this season featuring Peyton Manning. Unfortunately, in the process of writing the e-mail to Andy (mentioning how I made this same argument Back in March/April) I developed this little nervous twitch and couldn’t type anymore… it’s faded away by now, but I’m getting angrier and angrier rehashing this. And I hate the Jets! I need a glass of water…

Now, as for my picks… something might be wrong.

I’ve opened the season with back to back 7-9 starts. 14-18 to open the year. This is not good. I feel all out of whack. I’ve lost my balance, the air smells funny, even food doesn’t taste good.

OK, that last one is a lie. But seriously, I haven’t had back-to-back losing weeks in a very, very long time. For any of you that might read this blog hoping to get some insight on lines that even the pros might miss, I apologize.

In fact, I’m so remorseful that I’m going to offer a full money back guarantee on this week’s picks. If I go sub-.500 again this week, I will refund every cent that you gave me to read my picks.

I’m pretty confident we’ll all make out OK with that deal.

Lines from Sportsbook.com and accurate as of 7:00PM 9/21/06:

BILLS (-5.5) over Jets: Look, I’m quickly learning to respect both of these teams a lot more than I did just two weeks ago. The Bills gave the Patriots all they could handle, on opening weekend, at Gillette Stadium. New England was lucky to walk out with a win. The Jets made a ridiculous comeback last week, although to be honest, the Pats shot themselves in the foot more than the Jets actually doing much. If not for Jerricho Cotchery’s unbelievable balancing act, that game never gets that close. In this one, it’s simple – for as decent as the Jets have looked in their first two games, the Bills have looked dominant on defense, and competent enough to survive on offense. I’m taking Buffalo on the defense and home field advantage alone.

Bengals (+2) over STEELERS: Wait a second. I’m sorry; did the odds makers not watch the game Monday Night? I certainly did (and sadly, I made an emergency push on the Steelers (-2.5). Oops.) I understand that the game is in Pittsburgh. I understand that Carson Palmer might have a mental block about playing the Steelers (and to be honest, that scares me more than anything). I even understand the whole “bounce-back” factor for the Steelers. But the Bengals have looked damned good this year, admittedly, against Kansas City and Cleveland. The Steelers played very well against an overrated Dolphins team, and then got their lunch handed to them against a very underrated Jaguars team. The Bengals should be able to prove their superiority, and take a stringer hold on the AFC North lead…for now.

Jaguars (+7) over COLTS: OK, Let’s get one thing straight. The Colts are still (sadly) the scariest team in the AFC right now. They have the NFL’s most dominant offense, with the best technical quarterback in the league. Their defense has been holding opponents down in both games this year – the second half of the Houston game was 30 minutes of garbage time for Indy. So why pick Jacksonville, when they are clearly staring a letdown game straight in the eyes? Because they are downright nasty. They are managing the game on offense (the only turnover against Pittsburgh was off of a hell of a defensive play) and they are dominating on defense. Indy might be short their prized offseason signing – kicker Adam Vinateri (gee, that’s a real shame) – plus, Dwight Freeney is a question mark this late in the week. Sure, Peyton will get his yards, but Jacksonville will shut down any semblance of a running game early and often, and show Manning so many different looks he’ll think he’s in Foxboro in a January blizzard instead of Indy in September.

Titans (+10.5) over DOLPHINS: I’ve got no idea here. Tennessee sucks. Miami is overrated, and last weeks fans were actually pleading for Joey Harrington to enter the game. JOEY HARRINGTON! I think Miami wins, but not by 11+.

TEXANS (+4) over Redskins: Finally! A home underdog! Something I can get behind. Here’s the thing – Houston is bad, but not that bad. Again, I use the Oakland Raiders comparison. Oakland could make the Redskins offense look competent. Houston will at least show Mark Brunell some different looks. Besides – the Redskins haven’t broken 16 points on offense yet, including the preseason. That won’t be enough – David Carr has looked pretty good this year, even if hasn’t yet translated into wins.

Bears (-3) over VIKINGS: C’mon, this is a gimme. A lay-up. A… whatever other sports-related analogy you want to use. Chicago is the best team in the NFC right now, even if they’ve had a creampuff schedule. This win puts them at 3-0, with all three wins over division opponents. Sure, Minnesota’s 2-0, but both wins were by a field goal late in the game. The Bears won’t let this game stay close – they’ll be up by double-digits at the half and just extend it as the game winds down.

Packers (+6.5) over LIONS: I know, I know. I keep backing the Lions, and they keep disappointing me. Now I’ll go against them, and they’ll blow out Green Bay. Detroit has the embarrassment factor to drive them; Green Bay is already in the “playing for pride” mode. Personally, I’m thinking Brett Favre can duplicate his huge day from last week against New Orleans – in fact, I’m banking on it. I picked him up for a one week start just to face Detroit’s Swiss Cheese secondary.

Ravens (-6) over BROWNS: Sure, Cleveland fans will be rabid over this game. They’ll be the only ones. For some reason, this is the national afternoon game. I can’t imagine why, if only to try and make the rest of the nation pity the greater Cleveland area. Baltimore – big.

Rams (+4.5) over CARDINALS: I’m completely confused by two games this week. This one and the Dolphins/Titans game. I can’t, in good faith, back a team as crappy as the Cardinals, even when they’re favored at home. Their offensive line couldn’t block pass rush from me and three guys I play football with in the annual Day After Thanksgiving Backyard Game. But the Rams just lost to the 49ers. So, is the NFC West that bad, or was last week just a hiccup for St. Louis? My head hurts.

SEAHAWKS (-3.5) over Giants: Simple – it’s a letdown game for New York, and they’re on the road, cross country, against one of the two best teams in the NFC. Plus, they really were handed that game last week – Seattle will provide a much, much tougher challenge.

Eagles (-6) over 49ERS: This game is going to tell us a lot about both of these teams. An Eagles win (and a dominant one at that) proves that they actually do have a heart, and that they’ve learned from their mistakes last week. If Philly squeaks out a win here or worse yet, allows the 49ers to get back into the game late, then there are going to be a lot of questions surrounding the Eagles. And if the Niners can manage to take this game, then they are officially the team no one wants to play – young, talented, and too damned stupid to know that they’re supposed to be two or three years away.

PATRIOTS (-6.5) over Broncos: Elaborating on what I said above, here are the facts. The Patriots embarrassed themselves in the Divisional Round of the playoffs last year at Denver. Since then, they have had nine months to reflect on what went wrong, and make it better. Moreover, they have had to listen to nine months of “Are the Patriots done?” and “What’s wrong in New England” stories from the national media. Factor in the absolutely insane fans in Foxboro, and the fact that the game is being played on Sunday Night Football in front of a national TV audience, and this might be the biggest statement game a team has ever had.

Falcons (-3) over SAINTS: I really want to pick New Orleans here. All the emotion, all the hype, all the memories that they will be bringing up again and again. But the Falcons just look too damned good, and the Saints are 2-0 against the Browns and Packers, two teams that have yet to win. I’m taking Atlanta, but I’m rooting for New Orleans.

RECAP: BILLS / Bengals / Jaguars / Titans / TEXANS / Bears / Packers / Ravens / Rams / SEAHAWKS / Eagles / PATRIOTS / Falcons

Lata.

posted by Big D @ 10:08 PM