The best seat in the house is the view from the couch

Week 4 Picks

Alright guys, I’m feeling rejuvenated. Not only did I have a winning week, not only did one of my parlays actually not lose (I was STUNNED when I logged in to look at the lines just now and saw that I had money in my account – and that I had actually made money last week, albeit only $45), not only all of that, but this week I have the opportunity to pick against the Raiders again!

Seriously, I am busting. BUSTING! (Hope someone got the Seinfeld reference…)

Also, before I jump into this week’s picks and try to build off of last weeks’ success (7-5-2; not great, not terrible. 21-23-2 so far this year), I wanted to pass along a link to a fellow blogger. His page is officially my new favorite blog that I don’t write, so I might as well let you all enjoy it with me.

Those of you like me that live religiously on ESPN.com have probably seen his “Daily Quickie” on Page 2. He has since left the ESPN family and is blogging daily on every sports topic (and really, every topic) all day long. So go ahead, click the link (you know you want to) and check out danshanoff.blogspot.com

Not like he really needs the boost in readership numbers, but it’s worth the time.

And one last thing on Shanoff’s blog; there’s a Writer’s Series book reading next week in NYC (here’s the link and guest lineup). If you’re a web freak or a sports freak (or both) like me, you’ll like the guest lineup. I’m probably taking some time off work to drive down and have a drink and a listen – might as well join me.

OK, onto this week’s picks:

All Lines from Sportsbook.com and current as of 8PM on 9-28-06

Colts (-9) over JETS: I can only remember one team in the last 15 years winning the Super Bowl with as good of a passing game and as lousy of a running game as the Colts seem to have this year – The Greatest Show on Turf in St. Louis in 1999. But I think the Colts should show some signs of a ground game this week in New York. Look for Joseph Addai to have 90+ and a score, but Peyton should still be Peyton – you know, 280 yards, 2 TDs, blah blah blah…

Chargers (-2.5) over RAVENS: Damn, two straight road favorites… Last week’s game really exposed Baltimore’s lack of an offense, and that was against Cleveland – not exactly a defensive powerhouse. The Chargers defense has looked like it is moving about twice as fast as anyone else on the field. As long as San Diego doesn’t rely on Philip Rivers to win them the game, they should have no problem controlling the tempo and dictating the pace of the game, on both sides of the ball. This will be a fierce, smash mouth game, but in the end, the Chargers’ offense should be able to overcome the Baltimore defense.

Vikings (+1) over BILLS: OK, now a road underdog… I think I may have overestimated the Bills last week. They looked good in Week one against a superior New England team, but lost. They looked outstanding in Week 2 against a comparable Miami team, and won. They looked horrendous in Week 3 against a good Jets team, and got their lunch handed to them. The Vikings have kept every game close, with a total point differential this year of +4 (win by 3, win by 3, lose by 2). This should be a close game, and in that situation, I like the underdog – even if it is only one point.

Cowboys (-9.5) over TITANS: Think about this: the Cowboys are dealing with the whole T.O. situation (and that should be another 3-5 paragraphs in itself, but I refuse), the lack of a reliable, uninjured kicker, Bill Parcells making rumblings about his “deteriorating health” which is usually a precursor to his early departure from a contract, and Drew Bledsoe is still starting under center. So that should tell you just how bad the Titans really are. 9.5 points for any other team (besides Oakland) would be ridiculous. For Tennessee, a 10 point loss sounds about right – though I plan on teasing them waaaaay up, or the Cowboys waaaaay down…

49ers (+7) over CHIEFS: The Niners have held their own against three solid conference teams. Sure, they only have one win to show for it, but they have proven a lot. More importantly, they still have their starting quarterback, and as of right now, their starting running back. Losing Vernon Davis will hurt, but Eric Johnson is a more than capable back-up. The Chiefs are still relying on Damon Huard, but coming off of a bye week, they will at least be rested. Still won’t be enough.

Saints (+7) over PANTHERS: Stupidest line on the board. Actually, second stupidest (we’ll get to that later). Yes, it’s the Saints. Yes, there’s no way they keep this up. And yes, this is probably going to be a huge emotional let down game after the game in the Superdome last week (boy did I screw that pick up - and thanks to my buddy Tim for reminding me of it today with a hearty laugh…) I’m sure the Panthers will look to try and build off of last week’s big win, but I don’t think they can do it by more than 7. Carolina wins, but doesn’t cover.

FALCONS (-7) over Cardinals: FINALLY – a home team! Atlanta got completely embarrassed last week, but you can’t really blame them. That game was so unbelievably hyped up that it would be easy for a team, especially the opposing team, to forget that they were even playing a game. But the Falcons should get John Abraham and Ed Hartwell back this week, and with Kurt Warner under center, get ready for about 8 sacks, 3 picks and maybe even a fumble or two.

Dolphins (-3.5) over TEXANS: This is, by far, the line I feel most uncomfortable with this week. And it involves the Texans. What’s that tell you about Miami? Daunte Culpepper has to break out of his funk this week – if he’s even remotely mediocre in this game, he’s done for good. But I think he’ll break out big time – maybe even up to 350 with 3 TDs. That’s good news for me – I can finally start Chris Chambers with confidence.

RAMS (-5.5) over Lions: This has to be Matt Millen’s final year in the GM’s box, unless of course, he’s the janitor next year…

BENGALS (-6) over Patriots: I really hope you guys are recording this… this is the first time I’ve picked against the Pats since Week 13 last season when they were (-10) over the Jets in Foxboro. It’s not that I think they’re bad (c’mon, I’m from New England – In Belichick I Trust). It’s not that I think this game will be a complete blowout (13 points, max). It’s that the Bengals have looked so damned good the first three weeks that I can’t imagine New England having the horses to stick with them. I feel like this is going to be a shootout type of game, but without any playmaker type of receiver, New England is starting the game behind the 8-ball. One thing to watch for this game – Corey Dillon is returning to Cincy. He is absolutely going to go off. You heard it hear first – if he’s healthy and doesn’t run for at least 125 and a touchdown, I’ll be amazed.

Jaguars (-3) over REDSKINS: The Redskins defense is really overrated this year. They haven’t really contained anyone yet, and their offense needed the Texans on the other side of the ball to finally break 16 points. The Jaguars’ defense is a wee little bit better than the Texans’. And their offense should do just enough to keep them up by more than a field goal.

Browns (-2.5) over RAIDERS: This is the most ridiculous line on the board. The Raiders should not be any less than a six point underdog to anyone besides the Titans or Texans until they actually show up for a game. The Browns have looked pretty feisty in all three of their games, and they haven’t rolled over to an opponent yet, unlike Oakland who has looked like a 1-AA college team in both their games so far.

BEARS (-3.5) over Seahawks: OK, so I wrote my entire pick out for the Seahawks to cover this line and win outright… and then I remembered that Shaun Alexander is out for this game. Whenever a defense can eliminate one entire aspect of the other team’s game, their job is easier. But when the league’s best defense doesn’t have to account for the reigning league MVP, I mean, that’s like a gift from the Gambling Gods. And when the line stays below four this late into the week… hold on, I need to go check my account balance one more time.

Packers (+11) over EAGLES: Green Bay isn’t winning this outright. But the Eagles have this nasty little habit of letting teams back into games late (see, Week 2: Giants…) The Packers will probably get down big early, then throw the ball and try to climb back into the game. This feels like an 8-10 point game to me. By the way – I can’t tell you how happy I am to have Chambers vs. the Texans, Kellen Winslow vs. the Browns, and my choice of Mike Vick against Arizona or Brett Favre when he inevitably has to throw the ball 50 times this week… as long as he keeps it out of Eagles’ hands.

Recap: Colts / Chargers / Vikings / Cowboys / 49ers / Saints / FALCONS / Dolphins / RAMS / BENGALS / Jaguars / Browns / BEARS / Packers

Four home teams. Four road underdogs. I feel like this could end up really, really good, or really, really bad.

We’ll see by Tuesday.

Lata.

posted by Big D @ 8:58 PM