The best seat in the house is the view from the couch

Week 7 Picks

I learned my lesson last week. No more picking games while watching any HDTV program that might show boobs, gambling, alcohol, or fast cars. I just can’t seem to concentrate when exposed to any of those things on the television. So no more Survivor or CSI while writing.

Luckily, I’m watching “Jeopardy!” right now. I’m not exactly expecting to see Alex Trebek flash the camera, while swilling a fifth of JD and rolling the dice in a makeshift backstage craps game. Or at least, I am praying that doesn’t happen…

So what to make of the lines this week? I mean, there are more road favorites (7) than home favorites (6). This might be the week my head finally implodes while trying to pick NFL games against the spread. The road favorites all seem like they should be sure things, but then again, there’s a reason the lines move.

41-41-5 on the season after a 4-9 Week 6. You know what that means – it’s a clean slate from here on out. That’s what I like – usually by now, we know a lot about these teams.

All Lines from Sportsbook.com and accurate as of 7:45PM on 10/19/06. Home teams in CAPS.

Chargers (-5.5) over CHIEFS: Until Trent Green comes back, I will never lay one dollar with Kansas City. I don’t care how badly they got shellacked by the Steelers last week – Damon Huard is still the Chiefs’ starting quarterback. That’s enough to steer me to whatever team is opposing them.

Jaguars (-9.5) over TEXANS: I actually don’t feel great about this pick. I’m sure that Jacksonville is going to dominate this game in every way possible. But after yet another embarrassing performance last week in Dallas, Houston just might have something to prove. Whether or not they can prove it against the Jags’ defense remains to be seen. But if they can manage to limit the turnovers, they might be able to keep it close.

Patriots (-5.5) over BILLS: With six catches, Troy Brown becomes the Patriots’ all-time leading receiver. I say he gets the record by the third quarter, and he gets it with a touchdown catch. Too bad his interceptions while playing cornerback don’t count…

FALCONS (+2.5) over STEELERS: I want to see Big Ben do it against a good defense. The Chiefs are not a good defense. Atlanta has only allowed two passing touchdowns this season, and both were last week to Eli Manning. That’s better than the Bears, Cowboys and Patriots, and only behind the Broncos for tops in the league. If the Steelers can pull this one off, I’ll have a little more faith in the coming weeks. I promise.

DOLPHINS (-5) over Packers: This one is going to have to be won by the Miami defense. The offense should be able to put up decent numbers against the second worst pass defense in the league (I’m expecting a huge day out of Chris Chambers), but I’m not expecting more than 17 points out of Miami on the offensive side of the ball. If their defense can pressure Brett Favre, they should come up with a few key turnovers and hold Green Bay down.

Eagles (-5) over BUCS: Actually a little bit of a scary game for me to pick. The Eagles let one get away last week, losing to a ball control offense that did everything possible to just not make mistakes. That’s exactly what the Bucs have in place with Bruce Gradkowski – if they can control the clock and not let Donovan McNabb on the field, they can keep this game close.

JETS (-3.5) over Lions: If Eric Mangini can somehow manage to guide the Jets to a 7-9 or better record this year, he should win the Coach of the Year award, no questions asked. This game can get them over .500 at 4-3, and that could be a huge confidence boost to guide them through the rest of the year. With a few breaks, they could be in the Wild Card hunt right up to the end of the year.

Panthers (+3) over BENGALS: I think this is the week that we all realize just how much we all overrated the Bengals in the preseason… Steve Smith goes huge (again) to prove that he, and not Chad Johnson, is the most electrifying receiver in the game. And the Panthers take this one outright.

Broncos (-4.5) over BROWNS: So, for all the talk about the Bears this year, the Broncos just might have the most dominant defense in the NFL. They’ve allowed 37 points through five games (7.4 pts/gm). They’ve allowed one touchdown – a dink and dump pass from Tom Brady to Doug Gabriel in Foxboro last month – and eight field goals all season long. That, my friends, is dominance. And although they don’t force a ton of turnovers (4 INTs and 6 Fumbles), they control the game. Now if only their offense could get it in gear… (Random side note – Kellen Winslow Jr. will either be a monster or a non-factor this weekend. He had to bury his younger brother this week. It will either motivate him or be a huge weight on his mind.)

COLTS (-9) over Redskins: This pick is contingent on one factor. If the Redskins coaching staff is too stupid or too stubborn to give the ball to Clinton Portis at least 30 times, then they have no shot at winning this game, and Indy should win by 20. If Washington decides to run the hell out of the ball and control the clock (hey, the Titans and Jets provided the blueprint on how to slow down Indy’s offense), then they might have a chance to pull off the upset.

(Random programming note – Survivor just started. There is a lot of chick-fighting in this episode, as the teams are essentially wrestling to drag opposing members fifty feet. I take no responsibility for my final few picks here…)

SEAHAWKS (-6.5) over Vikings: What a hell of a game Seattle & St. Louis played last week. Just a back and forth slugfest. Reminiscent of the Rams/Lions game from a few weeks back, it seemed like neither team wanted to hang on to a lead. This one should be easier for the ‘Hawks, but watch out if they get a big lead early – their pass defense is already sketchy (see: Week 6 – Bulger, Marc). If they have to defend against a team passing on almost every down to climb back into the game, it could get close in a hurry.

Cardinals (-3) over RAIDERS: If the Raiders don’t win this one, they won’t win one this season. And I’m still picking against them. By the way, just as an illustration of why stats don’t always tell the whole story – take a guess which NFL team leads the league in fewest passing yards allowed with only 669 in five games (133.8 per game)? That’s right – it’s the defensive juggernaut that calls the Coliseum home, your 2006 Oakland Raiders! Of course, that’s because they’re usually so far behind that every team just runs out the clock on them…

COWBOYS (-3) over Giants: The Giants have a couple wins this year against a couple real good teams – Philly & Atlanta. The Philly win was more a loss by the Eagles than a win by the Giants, but the Atlanta game last week was impressive. A win this week would give them the best divisional record in the NFC East. But here’s the catch – the Cowboys are actually looking like they’re starting to come together as a team (i.e. they’ve learned to appease T.O. long enough to shut him up). Julius Jones has three straight 100-yard rushing games (and had 94 in the game before the run started) and the Giants’ run defense is in the bottom half of the league. If Drew Bledsoe can get the ball to T.O. early and often, the Cowboys should pull away shortly after the half.

RECAP: Chargers / Jaguars / Patriots / FALCONS / DOLPHINS / Eagles / JETS / Panthers / Broncos / COLTS / SEAHAWKS / Cardinals / COWBOYS

And before I sign off, I need to pass along a link for you all.

Those of you who know me know that I’m not exactly a big fan of politics. As a matter of fact, I try to stay away from it at every turn. Until it affects me or my family/friends directly, I simply couldn’t care less.

Then my mother (who else?) told me about a political campaign ad in the race for governor of Massachusetts. And after watching it, I need to pass it along.

I endorse this candidate in no way whatsoever (in fact, I can’t say I support any of the four candidates for Governor of Massachusetts this year, and that’s pretty sad). The ad, however, might be the greatest political ad ever. It puts politics into perspective, and it is funny as hell. You’d never hear a politician say the things that are implied in this ad.

So, without building it up too much more, here you go.

Lata.

posted by Big D @ 8:42 PM