Week 5 Recap
Quick Thoughts while wondering why I'm such a complete idiot…
Alright, I should know better by now, but let's just get it out of the way in advance…In the first four weeks of the NFL season, I had a record of 28-30-2 against the spread. I had only won one bet all season – a 4-team parlay that actually paid enough for me to have a $45 profit on Week 3 (hardly covered the losses in Weeks 1, 2 and 4…)
This week, I looked at the lines on Thursday, made my picks Thursday night after waking up from a six hour nap (Wednesday night was great, but exhausting), then went to bed feeling pretty good.
My plan all week had been to watch the injury reports, keep up with the quarterback situations in Miami and Arizona, then get money in on Saturday night. Problem is, I have a couple of checks outstanding on my bank account that haven't been deposited yet, so I had no idea how much I had available to me for the week. I waited, and waited, and waited, but nothing cleared.
Saturday came around. I woke up early because I had a lot of crap to do. I scoured the NFL sites and got ready to deposit for the picks.
Then I went out for awhile to run errands.
Then I came home, ate dinner and watched a movie.
Then I went out to the movies to see the late showing of "The Departed" (best $10 I've spent in months, by the way - you need to go see this if you've ever had any association with Boston, any police unit, the mafia, or Irish people in general...)
Then I got home at 2AM and decided to go to bed, since I was golfing Sunday morning.
See anything missing in that itinerary?
Sunday, I went golfing in the morning and got home at 1:30PM, prepared to look at how well my bets were doing… except… um…
Yup. Forgot to put the money in. Never actually made the bets.
I went 9-2-3. The two losses (New Orleans & Pittsburgh) were the two games I was least confident about going into the week, and I probably wouldn't have touched them.
Meaning, with my normal betting pattern and the normal deposit into my account…
I would have paid off my car this morning. And my TV. And probably had 1/3 of a down payment for a new house.
Yeah, we're talking $15k or more. Especially because I always play a "fun" bet - usually a 10-team parlay for about $25 that pays anywhere from $16,000 - $25,000 by itself, and had I avoided the Saints & Steelers (which I would have), at worst I would have picked up about $8k on that one alone.
Sometimes, I hate myself. At least I look smart, what with my new 37-32-5 overall record...
Other thoughts from the weekend:
n This is why I don't bet on baseball – last week , I made my "Playoff Predictions" with the LDS' starting that afternoon. After one round of the playoffs, I'm 0-4. I had the Twins, Yankees, Dodgers & Padres advancing to the ALCS & NLCS, even predicting that A-Rod would go " huge in this series – think .450BA, 2HR, and 8RBI" Um, oops.
n At least my pre-season predictions are still intact, at least in the National League. Funny – I went 0-4 with the AL playoff teams, and 3-4 with the National League. I live in an American League city; shouldn't I know more about that league by default?
n Anyone that is ready to anoint the Chicago Bears as the best, most untouchable, and most likely team to go undefeated this year… just hold on one second. They haven't played anyone aside from Seattle yet. Yes, they rolled the Seahawks for 60 minutes of football. But they've also played Green Bay, Detroit, Buffalo, and were almost beaten by Minnesota. San Diego has only lost to the Baltimore Ravens (a pretty decent team themselves) and even that took a last minute drive to accomplish. And Baltimore has beaten up every team they've faced. I like Chicago – I'm pretty certain that barring injuries, they'll be in Miami in the Super Bowl. Just don't call them the team to beat in the NFL quite yet…
n Speaking of the Bears – watching the highlights of yesterday's game… if Rex Grossman continues to lock on to his intended receivers immediately after the snap, he's eventually going to pay for it. A good defense (i.e. not the Packers, Lions, et al) will pick up on that and shut him down. I'm actually surprised that the Bills were beaten so badly – I expected them to lose, and by 10 or more, but not by 33…
n Well, I guess Joey Harrington really isn't an upgrade over Daunte Culpepper. Of course, Harrington also didn't get sacked 17 times yesterday, so maybe he's not that bad of an option… Just imagine if the Dolphins had a competent quarterback. Someone who could throw a decent ball. Someone who could manage a game effectively, not take bad sacks or throw bad picks. Someone like Drew Brees…
n Random poker aside - I am playing some of the best poker I've played in the last five years, and I'm starting to get paid a little. I won my weekly home game for the first time in over two months last Sunday, and played pretty well this week until I made a bad read and donked off 80% of my chips. Oops. Time to save up, reload, and wait for another opportunity...
n This is how cynical New England fans are. At the end of the Philly/Dallas game (Such a disappointing game, by the way. Can't believe no fans fired a bullet at T.O.) I was sitting at the poker table looking over my friend's shoulder as the Cowboys drove to the game-tying TD. I actually looked at the guy next to me and said "No worries, it's Drew Bledsoe - he'll throw a pick here to ice it". Sure enough, on the next snap we got a vintage Drew Bledsoe play as he threw a wobbler to Lito Sheppard (who incidentally plays for the Eagles) that was returned 102 yards for a TD to ice the game. Honestly - who didn't see that coming?
n Impressive games this weekend from the Bears, Broncos, Eagles, Chargers & Jags. Three blowouts, four defensive masterpieces. Just dominant games all around.
n Sickly looking games from the Bills, Steelers, Jets & Redskins. Now I'm confused - the Jags' D got lit up by the Skins last week, and shut down the Jets this week. The Skins offense got completely exposed, again, by a mediocre Giants' D. What the hell is going on?
n Finally, back to baseball. If the Yankees manage to dump Joe Torre, he will immediately become the most sought-after (and therefore highest paid) manager in baseball. He would be a huge trophy for the new Nationals’ owners to stick in their dugout, but it would create an interesting choice for the Cubs between Torre & Joe Girardi. Either would be a good fit, either would be affordable for the team, and neither would revive the franchise for at least another two to four years.
That's all I got. I can already see the writing on the wall for next weekend - I'm either going to put my bets in and get shelled, again, or I'm going to hold off and have another 9 or more win week.
Lata.
posted by Big D @ 3:52 PM
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