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Week 6 Picks

I’m still reeling from my lunacy last weekend. This is why I should never take a vacation that doesn’t involve a round trip flight to Las Vegas – I forget the important things in life. I don’t do laundry, I ignore the dogs, I forget to place my weekly football bets…

Geez, it’s a wonder I remember to post to this thing twice a week.

No more chit chat – CSI is on, in HD. I was never a real fan of the show. Then I got my new TV and realized that I get to watch High-Def shots of the strip every few minutes. I’m OK with that…

9-2-3 last week (ugh), 37-32-5 overall this season. At least I’m back up over .500…

All lines from Sportsbook.com and accurate as of 9:15PM on 10/12/06. Home teams in CAPS

Bengals (-5.5) over BUCS: The Bengals have had two weeks now to prepare for this game. Sure it’s a road game, but the Bucs aren’t exactly a dominant force these days. Cincinnati should be well rested for this week, as long as they don’t look ahead to next week’s tangle with the Panthers. Oh, and as long as they stay out of jail…

Titans (+10.5) over REDSKINS: I’ve got no idea for this one. Honestly, the Titans came up huge last week in shutting down a very high powered offense. The Redskins only managed three points against a mediocre Giants’ defense. So does that mean that the Titans will actually show up twice in a row? Or will the Skins’ offense turn back into the 36-point monster they were against the Jags? I don’t know, so I’m just taking the points and crossing my fingers…

Texans (+13) over COWBOYS: Shit, three straight road dogs… ugh. Well, at least I have a good reason for this one… hear me out. The Cowboys remind me a lot of the Dolphins, but a little bit better. They have a stout defense, a very good receiving corps, a very good running back, and a quarterback who is an absolute statue. The Texans bothered Daunte Culpepper all day long in beating the Dolphins, in Miami. Drew Bledsoe will have to be mobile if the Cowboys are going to have any shot at winning by 14-plus…

Bills (-1) over LIONS: Well, at least it’s a favorite this time… I might be putting too much faith in J.P. Losman, but he’s played three road games this season, and although Buffalo is only 1-2 in those games, they were in the New England game until the end, and the loss to Chicago… well, the Bears are just unstoppable right now. Detroit is an awful, awful team. They won’t be able to hold up to the Bills’ D.

RAMS (+3) over Seahawks: The Rams are not getting any respect so far this year. They are the quietest 4-1 team in recent mystery. That changes this weekend when they shut down the Seahawks’ depleted offense. Watch out for Bulger – the Seahawks’ passing defense ranks 23^rd in the league, allowing 222 yards a game.

FALCONS (-3) over Giants: Atlanta’s defense is really sick. The only team not to allow a passing touchdown yet this season. They are going to get even sicker this week when John Abraham returns. Atlanta is building off of a bye week, meaning they’ve had plenty of time to scheme against New York’s offense. All they really need to do is entice Jeremy Shockey and watch tapes of the Giants’ performance at Seattle a couple weeks ago…

Eagles (-3) over SAINTS: I still believe the Saints are a serious playoff threat in the NFC, probably as a Wild Card team. But the Eagles look like the only things that could slow them down would be their lack of a killer instinct, or The Bears. And the worst part? The guy I’m facing this week has McNabb, Westbrook and the Eagles’ D. This might hurt…

RAVENS (-3) over Panthers: If the Panthers’ defense could ever stay healthy for a full season, they would be scary good. But alas, they continue to lose players year after year to the injured reserve. And since I think the Ravens will roll easily in this one… let me just say this. I was already a huge fan of the show “LOST” before last night. But then they decided to show the final out of the 2004 World Series within the context of the show. Believe me, it’s far too hard to try and explain how the 2004 World Series could possibly come into play on a show based on a plane crash on a remote Pacific Island…

JETS (-2.5) over Dolphins: Never, in a million years, did I ever think that in the 2006 season the Jets would be a favorite over the Dolphins. I’m really stunned. I actually did a triple take on the Sportsbook line when I first opened it. Ridiculous.

Chargers (-10) over 49ERS: Four 10-point lines this week, and I only feel 100% comfortable with one of them. But this one is the one I like the most. The Chargers defense looks like it is hell bent on killing whoever is holding the ball on every play. That’s not good for a young offense on a team like the Niners. This might turn into a decent game, but the Chargers should hold on to cover the line.

Chiefs (+7) over STEELERS: This is contingent on Larry Johnson playing, and playing at about 80% or better. I really think the Steelers are in trouble this year… The Chiefs aren’t exactly a playoff contender, at least not yet. But their defense is on the rise, the offense is competent, but will be much better with a healthy Trent Green and LJ. Until the Steelers can revive the dominance they showed at the end of 2005, I don’t have much faith in them.

BRONCOS (-15) over Raiders: Yeah, like there was any doubt about this one… Denver still hasn’t allowed a Rushing TD, and has only allowed one touchdown through the air. Now that’s dominant.

Bears (-10.5) over CARDINALS: Until Chicago shows us a flaw, I’m not betting against them. I won’t necessarily always bet with them, but they just look way, way too good right now. They’re beating teams up, and they’re really gaining confidence. Even the running game is starting to come around. They should be able to hang another 30 on the board this week, and if the defense hold true to form, the Cardinals won’t find the end zone.

RECAP: Bengals / Titans / Texans / Bills / RAMS / FALCONS / Eagles / RAVENS / JETS / Chargers / Chiefs / BRONCOS / Bears

Before last week, home teams were only four games over .500, and favorites overall were eight games under. I’m just hoping the trends both continue. With three road underdogs in my picks this week, if everything holds, I might be a rich man next week.

But more than likely, I’ll still be schlepping along…

Lata.

posted by Big D @ 10:21 PM