Tuesday, December 26, 2006

Week 17 Rants & Ranks

First things first – I’m still not fully recovered from the end of the Bengals/Broncos game. There’s at least a 50/50 shot that if I had to discuss it face to face with another human being, I could easily snap and rip off their nose or something like that. Let’s just say, that’s probably a topic to avoid bringing up in conversation with me right now.

Second, I’m giving myself credit for the Ravens/Steelers game from last week. Even though I picked the Steelers to cover the (-3.5) line, I changed my mind before game time and put money on the Ravens. For the record, I had originally picked Baltimore before talking myself out of it (as I detailed in the pick). Here’s the original paragraph I was prepared to post:

Ravens (+3.5) over STEELERS: Very simple here people – The Ravens are the best team nobody’s talking about. They’re still playing for home-field advantage. They’ve got the best defense in the league (shocking, I know). And although the Steelers are fighting for their playoff lives and have the revenge factor to work in their favor, they just don’t have the horses to hang with Baltimore.

So, with that pick, I was 9-7 in Week 16, putting me at 116-118-7. I can’t believe I’m saying this, considering where I was just a few weeks ago, but all I need is another 9-7 week to finish the season at .500. Sometimes the world is funny like that.

Onto the Week 17 Rants & Ranks (abridged version – I feel lousy and would like to sleep for more than two hours tonight):

1. San Diego (1): The most complete team heading into the playoffs since the 2003 Patriots. The only way they don’t win it all is if they stop themselves – i.e. if someone wakes up Marty Schottenheimer.

2. Baltimore (2): They’ve allowed the fewest number of points in the league, they’ve got a competent, if not very very good quarterback, and with one more win, they’ll have Home-Field Advantage for at least one game in the playoffs.

3. New England (6): I know – there are four teams below them that they’ve lost to this season. Miami & the Jets were fluke losses (I hope). Denver & Indy were early in the year when New England was a completely different team. But if I ha to pick today, I don’t think there’s a team in the league besides #’s 1 & 2 that could beat the Patriots.

4. New Orleans (5): Dominant win in the Meadowlands this week. The Giants never snapped the ball on offense in Saints’ territory. If the defense keeps playing like that, and with their running attack, they are a dangerous team.

5. Chicago (8): They get a bump mostly because everyone else looked awful this week. I can’t put the Eagles above the Bears yet, even though Philly is the hottest team in the NFL not led by Vince Young.

6. Tennessee (13): We keep doubting them, and they keep winning games. The Patriots can only move from #4 to #3 in the standings this week, so I wouldn’t be sad to see them roll over get an early rest and let Tennessee have a shot at the playoffs.

7. Philadelphia (9): That’s how you prove you’re for real – go on the road to the division leader and obliterate them. Jeff Garcia back in the playoffs… never thought I’d see that again.

8. Dallas (3): Somebody get this team a glass of water, because they’ve had a couple of serious hiccups over the past few weeks. Who had Week 16 in the “When will T.O. sabotage his team” pool? Even better, who else can’t wait for the Eagles to win the NFC East, then host the Cowboys in the playoffs? Philly fans get those batteries ready and start warming up in the bullpen…

9. Indianapolis (4): One and done. The only way they advance to the second round of the playoffs is if they draw Denver. They just don’t lose to Denver.

10. New York Jets (11): They present interesting match up problems for whichever team they face if they make the playoffs. They nearly beat the Colts, and they split the season series with the Patriots. Of course, they have to actually make the playoffs first…

11. Jacksonville (7): The Patriots owned the better part of that game. The Jags made it close at the end, but the outcome was never really in doubt. They’re not a playoff team yet, but MJD is my Rookie of the Year, narrowly edging out Vince Young & Marques Colston.

12. Denver (17): The only way they have a shot to advance in the playoffs is if they draw the Patriots. And even then, I don’t see it happening. By the way – HOW THE HELL DO YOU GIVE UP THAT GARBAGE TOUCHDOWN?!? Sorry. Still bitter.

13. Seattle (15): And they’re a division winner? Sometimes I wonder if the NFL shouldn’t setup their divisions like the EPL and drop the worst team to the “B” conference. Half the NFC could drop easily.

14. Pittsburgh (10): Funny – everyone has come to expect the Super Bowl runner-up to miss the playoffs. Nobody expected the Steelers to be on the outside looking in. Well, almost nobody

15. Cincinnati (12): They don’t deserve to be this high. I came very close to putting them at #32, out of spite alone. But there’s no way they lose to just about any team below them.

16. Kansas City (19): Too little, too late. They need a win and a loss from Cincy, Denver, and Tennessee. Don’t see it happening (especially with Denver playing…)

17. San Francisco (18): There’s a good chance they sit down some key players that have been battling injuries this week, even though they still have a very, very, very outside shot at making the playoffs. Funny thing – as of right now, ESPN.com’s playoff scenarios page doesn’t list the Niners as eliminated, but also doesn’t list the necessary wins and losses for them to make the playoffs. Must be a VERY outside shot…

18. Atlanta (14): Hmmm… they’ve completely overhauled the receiving corps, changed coaches, and are about to move from Warrick Dunn to Jerious Norwood in the backfield… yet their offense still sputters. Gee, is there some constant in that offense that could be holding them back?

19. New York Giants (16): In a game they absolutely had to win to all but guarantee a playoff spot, they put up seven points and never snap the ball across the 50-yard line. Inexcusable. If they make the playoffs after quitting about six weeks ago, but the Titans miss the postseason after playing their hearts out for a month and a half, there is something seriously wrong with the system.

20. St. Louis (22): I refer back to what I wrote last week: Somehow, they are not yet eliminated from playoff contention…

21. Green Bay (23): …Neither are the Packers…

22. Carolina (24): …Or the Panthers. The NFC is just plain sad. And yet, can’t you just see some team getting hot and wiping out the rest of the conference, then shocking whoever comes out of the AFC and taking home the Lombardi trophy? It won’t be the Panthers, but still…

23. Arizona (26): Without Matt Leinart, they should get destroyed next week. But they’ve shown a lot in the final six weeks of the year, going 4-2 after starting out 1-8. Six wins is, sadly, an improvement for this club. They’ve got some hope for the future, but they’re still at least two years away.

24. Buffalo (20): Even though they got bounced from the playoff picture this week, an 8-8 season is far beyond anyone’s expectations for this year. They should be proud, and set their sights on 2007. They’ve got a legitimate shot.

25. Minnesota (25): No offense against the 26th ranked team in points allowed last week in Green Bay. So, maybe Brad Johnson wasn’t the only problem?

26. Houston (30): Welcome back to the NFL, Ron Dayne! Enjoy your stay, at least until next season when Domanick Davis returns and the team decides four running backs are too much.

27. Miami (21): And so begins the Cleo Lemon era… Wasn’t Joey Harrington supposed to be the Savior of South Beach just a month ago?

28. Washington (28): Look, among the five teams remaining, someone’s got to be on top. And while Oakland actually has the best defense among the flotsam and jetsam, they also have the single most dysfunctional team in the league.

29. Tampa Bay (29): Do your fan base a favor – get Chris Simms signed to a one or two year deal, then draft a QB and groom him well. Because neither Simms, nor Bruce Gradkowski, and certainly not Tim Rattay is the long-term answer for this team. And don’t even mention Luke McCown…

30. Cleveland (28): Boy, there are a lot of teams in the market for a quarterback in 2007. Add Cleveland to the heap, although they have other problems to work out first (offensive line, defensive line, defensive secondary, running back…)

31. Oakland (32): They can’t even screw-up effectively. Unless the Lions somehow manage a miracle win against the Cowboys to end the season, Oakland will get the #2 overall pick in 2007 and Detroit will own the rights to be mocked for the next five years no matter what they do with the first pick. Wait, maybe that’s not such a bad thing for the Raiders…

32. Detroit (31): Hmmm… no running game, no passing game. No defense. Very little special teams. You know, it’s almost as if their front office management personnel were completely unqualified for the job or something…

Lata.

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