The best seat in the house is the view from the couch

Week 16 Picks

I have been such a slacker. There’s just something about the holiday season – I slow down even more than usual, moving at about the pace of a fuzzy caterpillar. This was supposed to be written yesterday, just as yesterday’s post was supposed to be written Tuesday.

At least I didn’t completely space on it and throw something together at noon on Saturday morning. Honestly, I don’t think I’d ever slip that far…

One other thing I’ve been forgetting lately (yes, forgetting, that’s it. I’m not doing it intentionally, not at all…) I’ve neglected to include my record on picks for the previous week or overall in the season since about Week 12. Inexcusable. How else would you guys get any fodder to blast me with?

Not coincidentally, I “remembered” this after my best week of the year, going 11-5 last week and 0-1 so far this week to pull me almost back to .500 on the season at 107-111-7. I’ll settle for being perfectly average at the end of this year.

Onto the Week 16 picks:

All lines from Sportsbook.com and accurate as of 7:45PM on 12/22/06. Home team in CAPS.

Chiefs (-7) over RAIDERS: Not that it matters, but there are rumblings that Art Shell might *gasp!* be fired at year’s end! No! The humanity of it all! The guys’ done a decent enough job, hasn’t he? I mean, the Raiders have rolled over all season, screwed up the draft royally, have no legitimate QB, a weak running-back, and enough salary cap issues to keep them in this situation for the next five to eight years… I would have thought he’d be rewarded with an extension.

Titans (+4.5) over BILLS: This is probably the hardest game of the week for me to pick. Both teams are on hot streaks right now, both teams are a little overrated, and both teams are due for a collapse. I wouldn’t be surprised to see something along the lines of either a 10-9 nail-biter or a 38-35 shootout.

Saints (+3) over GIANTS: I must have hit the eggnog a little early, taking three straight road dogs to start things this week. But the Saints are the #2 team in the NFC for a reason, and I believe this line is a byproduct of their hiccup against the Skins last week. Of course, in a copycat league, the Giants could just follow Washington’s blueprint and shut the Saints down.

FALCONS (-6) over Panthers: I refer you back to my Falcons comment from two weeks ago. Not quite the same situation, but close enough.

RAMS (-2) over Redskins: Letdown game for the Skins. Not that they’re really all that good, but they just beat one of the top three teams in the conference. All St. Louis did was shutout a woeful Raiders squad – basically, they did what they were supposed to do.

Colts (-9.5) over TEXANS: Funny thing is, I originally typed this line and forgot the decimal point, making the Colts 95-point favorites, and I still had to pause for a second before deciding which side I’d take with that line.

STEELERS (-3.5) over Ravens: Let’s see… the Steelers still have an outside shot at the playoffs - the Ravens are basically playing for seeding. The Ravens’ starting QB is injured and may not be able to throw the ball effectively for this game - the Steelers’ starting QB, while still a complete idiot, can actually complete a pass now and then. The Ravens blew out the Steelers the last time they met about a month ago – the Steelers make a point of using revenge as a great motivator. I’ve flip-flopped on this pick three times, but after re-reading everything I just wrote, I feel confident about it.

BROWNS (-3) over Bucs: Not to do anything as crazy as rely on facts, but the Buccaneers don’t exactly have a stellar track record in Northern games in the winter. They don’t seem to be able to play effectively below 40 degrees. Cleveland gets awful cold in late December. Plus, the Bucs really suck, while the Browns only mildly suck.

Bears (-5.5) over LIONS: I’d feel more comfortable about this line if the Bears actually had something on the line here. Or if Rex Grossman hadn’t been playing out of his mind for the past two weeks – he’s due to implode.

Cardinals (+4) over 49ERS: Well, even if the Niners had any shot at the playoffs, it went out the window about three hours ago when #1 receiver Antonio Bryant got suspended for four games.

BRONCOS (-3) over Bengals: Can someone explain to me how they aren’t currently filming a movie about this Bengals’ season? Oh, wait. They already did. And there was a remake of it. Let’s just forget I ever opened my mouth, shall we?

Chargers (-4.5) over SEAHAWKS: I don’t care what the weather is like, or how jacked up the crowd is, or any of that crap. The Chargers are the best team in the league right now, and unless Mike Holmgren has found a serious kink in their armor, San Diego is not coughing this game up to a mediocre (at best) team.

Eagles (+7) over COWBOYS: The one weakness on this Dallas team is their pass defense. They can slow the run, and their offense seems to be clicking. But can’t you just see the Eagles throwing all day long, while T.O. sits on the sidelines and tries to figure out how he can take the spotlight in the playoffs?

Jets (+2) over DOLPHINS: This is amazing. New York is a borderline playoff team right now. Miami will be lucky to finish .500. Having a December game in Miami is not an advantage for the Dolphins the way it would be for the Jets in the Meadowlands. Sometimes these lines really confuse me.

The line on the Patriots/Jaguars game got pulled a couple ago – it had been hovering at JAGUARS (-3). I’ve got a bad feeling about this game for New England – when the season first started, I had them finishing at 12-4, with this game being the fourth loss. But I’m willing to take a chance, and take the Patriots (+3) and cross my fingers that the absence of Vince Wilfork up the middle doesn’t spell a 200+ yard rushing day for MJD.

RECAP: Chiefs / Titans / Saints / FALCONS / RAMS / Colts / STEELERS / BROWNS / Bears / Cardinals / BRONCOS / Chargers / Eagles / Jets / Patriots

Finally, since this will be the third year I’ve celebrated since I began this whole little expedition into the world of blogging, I would like to wish a Happy and a Healthy Holiday Season to everyone out there who has taken a few minutes out of their day to read my opinions on everything sports.

I started this page as nothing more than a way for me to vent my frustrations about anything that might have been happening at the time, and while it hasn’t exactly blossomed into much more than that (yet), it is exceedingly cathartic for me, and a great way for the rest of you to kill time. So it’s a win-win.

See you all next week.

Lata.

posted by Big D @ 8:15 PM