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Trade Manny? Why?

As I’ve written before on this page, I am a fan of Manny Ramirez. I like his undeniable ability at the plate. I like how hard he hits a baseball. I like his antics in the dugout, his laissez-faire attitude towards life, and most of his “Manny being Manny” moments. If it were up to me, the guy would retire wearing a Boston uniform.

Of course, it’s not up to me. I don’t sign his sizeable paychecks.

There has been a lot of talk over the past few days that the Red Sox are actively shopping Manny to as many as six different teams, with the Giants, Padres, Rangers and Dodgers being the most likely suitors. With the arrival of Daisuke Matsuzaka, and Theo Epstein’s blind obsession with the likes of J.D. Drew & Julio Lugo, Manny’s “albatross” contract needs to be moved, or the 2007 payroll will balloon to well over $150 Million.

The question is, why?

I understand he has an erratic personality. He often decides whether or not he wants to play on the day of a game, using anything from a sore hamstring to an illness befalling one of his twenty-seven aunts, uncles, grandmothers, etc. as an excuse for sitting when he simply doesn’t want to play.

I understand that, like it or not, he is an extremely streaky hitter. When he’s on, there is no one better in the Major Leagues. Not Pujols, not Papi, not A-Rod, not Bonds, nobody. But when he’s off, he’s a 6-4-3 waiting to happen.

I understand that he’s, at best, a defensive liability for 81 road games a year. And he’s not exactly a Gold Glove candidate for the 81 games in Fenway, either.

I also understand that there are, at best, a handful of deals out there that would make trading Manny the right thing to do. And as a Red Sox fan, very few make sense to me. Why trade away a great player just for the sake of trading him? Especially when it is a widely held belief that there is not worldly way to get even value in return for Manny – he’s certainly one of a kind.

Would I trade Manny straight up for Albert Pujols? Absolutely. Without even blinking. Pujols is just as good, if not better. He’s younger, cheaper, and less streaky. Even plays some defense occasionally. But the Cardinals aren’t making that trade, unless they are trying to cause a full-scale riot.

What about A-Rod? He’s younger, though more expensive. His production is on par with Manny’s, and he’s still in his prime, whereas Manny seems to be starting a decline. Of course, if Ramirez leaves Boston this off-season, watch out. He’d be worthy of a #1 overall fantasy pick in his first year out of the Big City. But I digress…

What doesn’t make sense is what the Sox are apparently trying to do – replace Manny with the ever-potent combination of J.D. Drew and Wily Mo Pena. Let me ask you – does that sound like the 4-5 combo in your 2007 Red Sox starting lineup that is going to win a division title, A.L. pennant, and World Series? Didn’t think so.

So, with an eye toward the possible moves out there, what can the Sox do? Well, for starters, they can not trade Manny Ramirez. They’ve spent the past six seasons waiting for his contract to become more palatable to their “Moneyball” philosophy. Now that it finally is (2007 salary - $18M with $4M deferred. 2008 salary - $20M with $4M deferred. ‘09/’10 Team options at $20M per season), they are suddenly trying to shop him around.

So, for $14M in 2007 and $16M in 2008, the Red Sox could keep one of the three best hitters of the past fifteen years, the best possible protection in their lineup for David Ortiz. Or they can spend $15M per season over the next four years for a 32-year old J.D. Drew.

Just for the record, Manny is 34, turning 35 in May of next season. And his contract averages out to $15M a year for the next two seasons - $30M guaranteed instead of $60M, for two players that will both be 36 when their deals run out. Just thought you might be interested.

But the Sox seem hell-bent on getting him out of their clubhouse, meaning that he must really have worn out his welcome with the team. So of the four teams being mentioned the most (Giants, Padres, Rangers and Dodgers) and one team not getting mentioned a lot (Baltimore), the Red Sox have a few options.

Supposedly, they are looking for help in the bullpen, preferably at closer, and they are also looking for a shortstop, just in case Julio Lugo doesn’t turn out to be the savior that Epstein is convinced he will be.

San Francisco is rumored to be the front runner, but they don’t have the pieces that Boston wants. In order to put Manny in The Bay Area, presumably as a replacement for Barry Bonds (because I cannot see Manny & Bonds co-existing in one locker room, not to mention there’s no way either of them could play right field in that ballpark) the Giants are going to have to involve a third team. Three team trades usually get tricky and ugly, so personally, I don’t see it happening.

San Diego has a couple interesting options. They’ve got a deep farm system (though not as good as the Dodgers’ – we’ll get to them in a second). Plus, they have a relief pitcher that just about every team in both leagues has inquired about over the past year in Scott Linebrink. They might match up with Boston, but I cannot imagine the backlash if the centerpiece of a trade for the best hitter of the last decade in Boston is a 30-year old relief pitcher and some prospects. The fans would ride Theo out of here on a rail. Unless there is some serious hitting prospect, as well as at least one “can’t miss” pitcher coming back to Boston, this would never happen.

The Rangers have two position players that Boston covets in shortstop Michael Young and first baseman Mark Teixeira. The Rangers are apparently listening to offers on Big Tex, but Young is completely untouchable. Not to mention, the Sox and Rangers had a pretty big trade worked out about two years ago, also involving Manny Ramirez. But those negotiations got blown out into the media, and the word being passed around afterwards was that Rangers owner Tom Hicks was so pissed at how Larry Lucchino gave the story to the media that he vowed never to do business with the Red Sox again. So unless the Rangers make Young available and don’t talk their owner, I don’t see Manny ending up in Texas. At least not directly from Boston.

That leaves the Dodgers. L.A. has enough prospects, both in pitchers and position players, to make Theo Epstein drool. Chad Billingsley, Matt Kemp, Takashi Saito, and a handful of others could all serve as parts to a gigantic jigsaw puzzle that Epstein is trying to solve.

Let’s not forget – Manny has 10/5 rights, so he can decide where he ends up.

To me, the most logical place for Manny to end up is in L.A. It’s a big market, where he can be a star. But it’s also a market that literally has 50,000 other “stars” making headlines everyday, where sports isn’t a dominant focus of all local media, and where Manny could be a headliner and blend into the background simultaneously.

The question is, would Epstein drag a third team into a trade? Like I said above, three-team deals usually get ugly, and often break down because they get too complex. But let’s look at one that I mulled over for about 30 seconds before deciding it made sense for all three teams involved:

The Dodgers ship Billingsley & Kemp to Baltimore.

The Orioles send Miguel Tejada to Boston

The Red Sox send Manny Ramirez to L.A. and Manny del Carmen to Baltimore.

Now, this trade does not fix Boston’s gaping hole at the back end of their bullpen. (Hey, I’m a realist – ideally, the Dodgers would send Saito to Boston as well to become the Red Sox’ new closer and serve as someone to ease Matsuzaka’s transition to the Major Leagues…)

What it does do is give the Dodgers the power threat they need, as well as put yet one more former Red Sox player in L.A. It gives Boston the best possible protection in the lineup for David Ortiz, as well as fill-in the shortstop position. And it allows Baltimore to restock the farm system and cut payroll, two things Orioles’ owner Peter Angelos loves to do.

The Orioles were hot on the heels of both Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Lee, and missed out on both. They might decide that with no marquis free agents left to realistically pursue, and not much of a bumper crop next year, they might need to fill-up on prospects for potential trades, or even more cost cutting in the future.

All three prospects that Baltimore gets spent most of last season in the majors. And while I’m sure the Orioles would rather take Jonathan Papelbon from Boston, he’s not going anywhere. As for Boston’s two other highly regarded pitching prospects, Jon Lester and Craig Hansen, they are both semi-untradable. Lester was unfortunately diagnosed with cancer last season, and Hansen, though young and talented, would come with a Major League contract, so he is hardly a bargain.

That’s the deal I make if I’m Boston, L.A., or Baltimore. I’m sure there are reasons this wouldn’t work, just like I’m sure there are reasons that it would be perfect.

Of course, I’m not a Major League GM. Maybe that’s a good thing, though I can’t see how…

I’ll be back in a few hours with the weekly ranks.

Lata.

posted by Big D @ 7:46 PM