The best seat in the house is the view from the couch

Week 9 Picks

Before getting into the Week 9 picks, I have two small notes to report.

First, my good deed for the day. A friend of a friend contacted me this past week with some information that I think all of you (or the two people who still read this site regularly) might find of great interest. She passed along an e-mail and a flyer from a member of her family who is holding a charity poker tournament on November 18^th to help defray the costs of brain surgery for his nephew. It’s in Connecticut, and costs $50. But it’s for a good cause, and there are plenty of prizes to be had. If you are interested, use the link to e-mail me and I will be more than happy to forward you all the information. Unfortunately, I will be unable to play (I’m sure you were all looking forward to taking my $50), but that shouldn’t stop you from supporting a worthy endeavor.

Second – if you’ve read this blog since its inception waaaaay back in the good ‘ol days of October 2003 (just passed three years – they grow up so fast, don’t they?) you may remember that I am an avid fan of the show “Jeopardy!” So much so, that I have tried to be a contestant since I was six years old. I haven’t been very successful to date.

So the news that the producers have decided to resurrect the wildly popular “Celebrity Jeopardy!” has left me absolutely speechless. Not to mention, I get the pleasure of feeling much, much better about myself when they break out categories like “Numbers Between One and Three”. And of course, I can now look forward to Saturday Night Live skewering the show the next time Will Ferrell hosts.

But by far the best thing to come out of this announcement was the news that Red Sox star pitcher Curt Schilling will be participating. Which leaves me with three questions:

A) Who plays him on the SNL skit (since there’s no way a New York based show would pass on him)? If I actually paid attention to the show, I might be able to answer this on my own.

B) Is there any way to calculate just how bad he will be? I’m as big a fan of Schilling as there is, and he has a lifetime pass from me for what he accomplished in 2004. But I just have a feeling he’s going to end up well in the red by the time Final Jeopardy rolls around.

C) How long do you think it takes before he snaps and attacks Alex after Trebek delivers one of his patented “Ohhhh, sorry. We were looking for ‘The Count of Monte Cristo’, not ‘Monte Carlo’” routines… My guess is about halfway through Double Jeopardy, Schilling just loses it and starts whipping fastballs across the stage.

Needless to say, I’m eagerly awaiting this episode next week.

So that’s my rant before trying desperately to save my ’06 football season. See, I spent the whole offseason looking forward to this year, to trying to continue my improbably run of picking over 60% winners for the past two seasons. I told people that I was good at this shit; even going so far as to recommend people simply follow my picks for their own bets (they didn’t, thank God).

After another awful, awful week of picks (5-9… ugh) I’m floundering at 51-57-6. All it takes is one huge week to get me back on track. Maybe this is the one.

Just for the record – I stopped putting any money on these games in Week Five. You know, the week where I tore shit up…

All lines from Sportsbook.com and accurate as of 7:30PM 11/2/06. Home teams in CAPS

Chiefs (+3) over RAMS: This might end up being the second best game of the day (take a guess what #1 is…). The Rams’ defense just isn’t good enough to slow down the Chiefs’ offense right now. Larry Johnson should build off of his big breakout game last week, and Damon Huard might solidify his starting role and establish himself as a very, very competent quarterback. He’s earned himself a lot of money in his next contract with his performance this season.

RAVENS (-3) over Bengals: Cincinnati has not looked good the past two weeks. They squeaked out a win over the Panthers, and then fell at home to a good but not great Falcons team. The Ravens seem to have a competent offense, and they still have a top three defense. If Steve McNair can limit mistakes and the offensive line can open holes for Jamal Lewis, the Ravens should win easily.

GIANTS (-13) over Texans: Actually one of the hardest games to pick… just kidding. The Texans are seriously considering starting Sage Rosenfels. On the road. In The Meadowlands. Against the second best team in the NFC, and one of the top five in the NFL. Not that David Carr is going to fare much better, but I don’t like Houston’s chances either way.

Titans (+10) over JAGUARS: I hate this pick, and I’m not comfortable with either side of it. I actually think the final spread will be ten points exactly, so the line shouldn’t worry me as much. I’d recommend a tease on either end. Jacksonville is too inconsistent, and Tennessee is just feisty enough to harass them and maybe keep it close.

Cowboys (-3) over REDSKINS: I know Washington can be a tough place for opposing teams to play, but I’ll give Tony Romo the benefit of the doubt – he led a major comeback against a very, very good defense, on national TV, in his first career start – I think he’ll be able to handle a sub-par defense in a game that won’t exactly garner much national attention.

BILLS (-3) over Packers: This week’s winner of the “Who the hell thought this was a good idea?” award…

Saints (-1) over BUCS: Listen. The Ravens are probably one of the three best teams in the AFC right now (the Chargers are missing too many pieces). The Saints are supposed to lose to teams like that. They are still a playoff team; they still should run away with a Wild Card spot. But they’re going to lose a few games to superior teams along the way. The Bucs are not a superior team; not by a long shot. And before you go touting the “Reggie Bush Injury Factor”, take a look at what the guy has done so far this year – he hasn’t exactly been a game-breaking difference maker. At least not yet.

Falcons (-5.5) over LIONS: You… You’re not serious with this line, are you? Ha…have you actually watched the Lions yet this year? Is this just a reactionary point spread, because people don’t trust Mike Vick to be dominant for more than two weeks? Wow.

BEARS (-13.5) over Dolphins: In the worst kept secret of the year so far, Daunte Culpepper probably won’t play again this season – in fact, Miami is considering a move to the IR just to make it official. Not exactly a ringing endorsement for the moves made by GM Randy Mueller this past offseason. Too bad they didn’t hang on to Damon Huard back in the day…

Vikings (-5) over 49ERS: One of two things happens here. Either both teams are ridiculously fired up after embarrassing losses in Week 8, or both teams are completely deflated. Or maybe the 49ers just continue to suck, while the Vikings rebound.

CHARGERS (-12.5) over Browns: This is the game that I am least sure about. Yes, losing Shawne Merriman is going to hut a defense that was already depleted. But the Browns’ defensive unit is barely, barely better than the Rams’. San Diego hung up 38 points on St. Louis last week. 38 more this week would be more than enough to cover this line against Cleveland.

Broncos (+2.5) over STEELERS: I cannot imagine any reason, whatsoever, for the Steelers to be favored in this game other than home field advantage. Pittsburgh is 2-5, and has a few really bad losses on their resume. Denver is 5-2 with losses against the best team in the game (Indy) and an opening day loss in a field goal battle with the Rams.

PATRIOTS (-3) over Colts: Like there was any doubt… I’ll have more to say about this game Sunday morning/afternoon (do I hear a live-blogging debut? It just may happen.)

SEAHAWKS (-8) over Raiders: Seneca Wallace was surprisingly competent last week against the Chiefs, nearly leading the Seahawks all the way back in that game. Oakland has spent the last two weeks beating the Cardinals after Arizona had just coughed up one of the worst losses in NFL history, and beating the Steelers while posting less than 100 yards of total offense. Now they’re going on the road to one of the most hostile stadiums in the league…? Nope.

RECAP: Chiefs / RAVENS / GIANTS / Titans / Cowboys / BILLS / Saints / Falcons / BEARS / Vikings / CHARGERS / PATRIOTS / SEAHAWKS

I feel ridiculously confident this week. That cannot be a good sign…

Lata.

posted by Big D @ 8:18 PM