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Week 11 Picks

I have one of two options at this point when it comes to making my weekly NFL picks. I can either do what I’ve been doing; scour the headlines, keep tabs on key injuries, check all the local weather reports, brush up on stats like “Yards Allowed on Third and 6 or Greater”, and actually put some effort into the picks. Or, I can flip a coin.

My way has generated a 63-75-6 record thus far into the NFL season.

I’m not totally resigned to a losing record yet, but this week, I’ve got a quarter sitting next to me, just in case I need it for the tough games.

(All lines from Sportsbook.com and current as of 7PM on 11/16/06. Home team in CAPS)

Raiders (+9.5) over CHIEFS: When in doubt this week, I’m taking the underdog. Especially in this game – the Raiders’ defense has been surprisingly competent all year long, and Trent Green is making his first start while trying to shake off the long term effect of that revolting hit he took against Cincinnati early in the season. I think this one stays close.

Colts (-1) over COWBOYS: Before last week’s games, road favorites were 14-27-3 on the season. Warrants mentioning. But this should be one of those road favorites that actually covers. If there’s one thing the Colts know how to do, its jump out to an early lead on the road to take the crowd out of it.

SAINTS (-3) over Bengals: I’ve just lost all faith in the Bengals at this point. They managed to hand 41 points on the vaunted Chargers’ defense last week, and it still wasn’t enough. The Saints controlled much of the game at Pittsburgh (except stopping the run), and lost on a late turnover. This should be another high-scoring, fantasy-lineup inflating game, but the Saints should hold on.

Steelers (-3) over BROWNS: I know I should listen to my own advice, I know I should stay away from the road favorite, I know I should back the team that got embarrassed the first time around. But the quarter told me that the Steelers would win and cover. Never go against the quarter.

Titans (+13) over EAGLES: Holy crap. A 5-4 team giving up 13 points to a team that just played one of the best games of their season, against one of the top three teams in the game? I know I should flip the quarter, just to be safe, but I’m going with my gut and saying Tennessee keeps this one within six.

RAVENS (-4) over Falcons: Let’s test out my Michael Vick Theory this week. Even with Ray Lewis questionable after undergoing minor surgery, the Baltimore defense is one of the three best in the NFL. Should be a good game.

PANTHERS (-6.5) over Rams: The Rams’ bandwagon has officially blown a flat. A couple more losses and it’ll be in a violent death-roll before bursting into flames.

(OH MY GOD! Celebrity Jeopardy is on again – and there is now a category called “Answers that start with Feb”. I’m completely flabbergasted by this. Seriously – I never thought I’d see the day when Jeopardy would parody Saturday Night Live parodying Jeopardy.)

TEXANS (-2.5) over Bills: In prior weeks, it’s been Packers/Bills and Lions/49ers. This week, there are three “Who the hell thought this was a good idea?” games. This is just the beginning. I mean, do the schedule makers actually think this is going to be some sort of ratings bonanza? Buffalo and Houston – yeah, those are the target markets for Nielsen households nationwide… Sorry, that’s the Communications Major in me shining through.

PACKERS (+6) over Patriots: Road Favorite. Plus, this should be an absolute shootout – I wouldn’t be surprised to see both QBs put up 350+ with two or three touchdowns.

Redskins (+3) over BUCS: Bucs win, 2-0, on a late safety when Jason Campbell forgets where the end line is. By the way – this is crap-tastic game #2 this week.

Bears (-7) over JETS: The exception to the Road Favorite rule. The Bears dominated the home team in The Meadowlands last week, and they should be able to do it again.

DOLPHINS (-3) over Vikings: Six weeks ago, did this line seem like it would be even remotely possible? More importantly, who thought I would ever, ever back the Dolphins again? Damnit – where’s my quarter, just to be safe…?

Lions (+2) over CARDINALS: Yeah, like I’m ever going to pick the Cardinals to cover a line as a favorite again… And yes, this is “WTHTTWAGI” #3.

Chargers (+2.5) over BRONCOS: Game of the Week, hands down. I cannot wait to watch this game Sunday Night. After what San Diego did to the Bengals last week, on the road, I am unbelievably excited to see how they handle a halfway competent defense in Denver.

Giants (+3.5) over JAGUARS: It seems like a long, long time ago that the Jaguars were shutting down the Steelers in Jacksonville. Now they’re turning the ball over four times and getting swept out of a season series by the likes of Houston. The Giants might be banged up, but they should be able to keep up with the Jags.

The Seahawks/49ers game has no line, as all the sports books are reserving judgement until the final word is handed down on the status of Hasslebeck & Alexander. The game’s in San Francisco, and the Niners have generated a little bit of momentum with defensive wins the last two weeks over Detroit & Minnesota. I think Seattle could win this game without either Alexander or Hasslebeck, but it’ll be much easier with them.

If the line is smaller than Seahawks (-4), take the Seahawks. Otherwise, stick with the underdog.

RECAP: Raiders / Colts / SAINTS / Steelers / Titans / RAVENS / PANTHERS / TEXANS / PACKERS / Redskins / Bears / DOLPHINS / Lions / Chargers / Giants / (PROVISIONALLY) Seahawks

OK, I’ve written way too much this week. I need a vacation. Luckily, it’s almost the weekend. I’ve just got one more thing to cover.

Just for the hell of it, since it’s the only thing we’ve heard about all week, and will continue to be the only thing we hear about until mid-day Sunday…

Wolverines (+7) over BUCKEYES: Sure, the Buckeyes are the #1 team, with a great offense and a dominant, ball-hawking defense. And yes, the game is in The Horseshoe, possibly the most hostile possible environment (outside of the Philadelphia City Limits) in college football for a game of this magnitude. And yes, if Michigan wins, the kid in the cafeteria at my office who proudly wears his Buckeyes hat will probably spit in my coffee Monday afternoon. But Michigan’s defense has crushed every single team they’ve faced. The Wolverines have a quarterback who’s “been there”, and a running back that just does not turn the ball over – something the Ohio State defense relies on to hold opponents down. Plus, I’m a Michigan fan. But you know what really sealed it for me?

I flipped a coin.

Lata.

posted by Big D @ 8:12 PM