Wednesday, November 22, 2006

Week 12 Rants, Ranks, and Early Picks

There is nothing more terrifying for someone ranking the NFL teams than seeing things like Week 11’s final scoreboard.

Indianapolis – lost to a 6-4 team.

Bears – held to 10 points by a 5-5 team.

Philadelphia – lost to a 3-7 team, and lost their quarterback for the season.

Seattle – lost to a 5-5 team.

Arizona – Won? That can’t be right…

Weeks like this past one just drive me absolutely insane. It makes it exponentially harder to decide which teams are better than others. This is what the age of parity has led us to.

There’s a good chance that the 49ers, yes - those 49ers – are one of the top 15 teams in the NFL.

My head hurts.

This week’s ranks, followed by picks for the three Thanksgiving Day games:

1. Indianapolis (1): I don’t believe that loss was indicative of a late season collapse. And even though their rushing defense more closely resembles a soup strainer than it does an NFL defense, I don’t think that any other team in the league could stop them long enough to win. Even moreso – I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if the Colts “gave this one away”. It was a non-conference game, on the road, against a vastly underachieving team. No one would fault them for losing it, and now the 16-0 pressure is off them for the final six weeks of the year. Conspiracy theory? Absolutely. Plausible… well, you tell me.

2. San Diego (3): They’ve won back to back games, on the road, after trailing in each by at least 17 points. And once their defense is back to full strength, I’ll consider ranking them #1. Assuming they keep winning.

3. Baltimore (4): Cannot deny the fact that they are the #2 seed in the AFC if the playoffs started today. If they keep running the ball the way they did last week, pencil them into the AFC Championship Game.

4. Chicago (2): Hard to drop a team after a win, especially a team that is so firmly in control of their entire conference (do you realize that right now, five NFC teams are tied at 6-4, for the second through sixth playoff spots? And Chicago sits at 9-1, having almost clinched the #1 seed already…) But the win in the Meadowlands was not especially pretty, and this week they travel again to face…

5. New England (7): Well, that’s one way to shut up all the critics – blow out the Packers, in Green Bay, by 35. By the way – this year, the Pats are 2-3 at home (?!?!) and 5-0 on the road, and the last four wins have been by an average of 26.5 points. Does that make sense to anyone? No, don’t blame the Gillette Stadium turf…

6. Dallas (8): I know it’s looking ahead a little too much, but can you imagine the hype-machine at ESPN if the Patriots and Cowboys meet in Super Bowl XLI?

7. Carolina (12): They’re quietly climbing up the NFC ladder, and if the Saints continue their downward spiral, the NFC South will be completely up for grabs.

8. Jacksonville (15): This will be short lived, but of the remaining teams in the Top-15 from last week’s ranks, none won their games in Week 11. That’s enough for me to push the Jags up seven spots…

9. Denver (6): Let’s see… they coughed up a 17-point lead at home, their quarterback is collapsing like his last name is Manning, and they have to play on an extremely short week. This has all the makings of the Broncos landing at about #17 next week.

10. New York Giants (8): Oh crap – their quarterback’s last name actually is Manning…

11. Philadelphia (5): They’ve gone from 11 to 5 to 11 in the span of two weeks. Guess that’s what happens when your star quarterback blows out an ACL, and you lose to a 2-win team… By the way – look at their remaining schedule (@Indy, Carolina, @Washington, @Giants, @Dallas, Atlanta). Good luck finishing any better than 1-5…

12. Seattle (10): I just don’t have a good feeling about this team right now. They need to get back in gear fast, or else they could be looking at a January spent on the golf course rather than the football field.

13. Kansas City (16): I know it was Trent Green’s first game back, but if you want to be considered among the playoff contenders in the NFL, you need to destroy teams like Oakland.

14. New Orleans (9): Sadly, this is what we all expected out of the Saints in the preseason – plenty of offense (510 yards passing? Glad to see Drew Brees’ shoulder is fully healed) but absolutely no defense. That unit needs help, fast.

15. San Francisco (20): Just cannot deny the fact that the 49ers are a .500 team 10-weeks into the season, and have one of the most dynamic young offenses in the league. I don’t think anybody saw that coming.

16. Atlanta (14): OK, Mike Vick disproved my “Only plays well against good teams” theory. 127 yards passing against the Ravens kinda blew that idea out of the water.

17. Cincinnati (17): Yes, they won. No, I’m not rewarding them for it yet. They’re still a 5-5 team when a lot of people thought they’d be about 8-2 or 7-3 by now.

18. Pittsburgh (22): They’re 4-6 right now. If they make the playoffs, there’s a decent chance that I’ll just snap and go on some type of spree.

19. Miami (23): Ditto for the Dolphins.

20. New York Jets (13): The onside kick was a stupid call, but it didn’t cost them the game. However, the fact that they were able to hold the Bears scoreless in the first half (and keep the game close for all four quarters) gives me a lot of hope for the Patriots this week.

21. Cleveland (21): They had that game sewn up against the Steelers last week. Then their defense decided to pack it in a little early, maybe try to beat the traffic out of the stadium. Not going to protect many leads playing defense the way they did on the Steelers’ final drive.

22. St Louis (18): Wow, was it really that long ago that people were picking the Rams as a serious threat in the NFC? This is a team on the decline – it might be a few years before they recover from this. They’re only two games ahead of the Cardinals right now. The Cardinals! Of course, they’re only two games out of first in the division too.

23. Buffalo (24): Nice win for the Bills over Houston last week. Not the type of game they would normally win – you know, one where the quarterback is actually competent.

24. Green Bay (19): The bright side of last week’s game? Now we won’t have to spend the final six weeks listening to “pundits” carping for Brett Favre to sit down so the team can get a look at Aaron Rogers…

25. Tennessee (27): Nice job holding the Eagles down after McNabb’s injury. And since I will never, ever write a kind word about a jackass like Pac-Man Jones, let’s just leave it at that.

26. Oakland (30): Holy crap – the Raiders are out of the Bottom Three. I’m not sure how to react – should we throw a parade? Should we force Al Davis to sell the team? I’m perplexed.

27. Houston (26): They’re a team on the rise, even if they fell one spot this week. I really do think they will improve dramatically over the next year or two, though they might have a hard time winning more than two games out of their final six.

28. Tampa Bay (31): Only because they won last week, and the final four teams all lost. The Bucs have lost Simeon Rice for the year, weakening an already shoddy defense.

29. Minnesota (25): Four weeks ago, they were being mentioned with Chicago, Dallas and The Giants as a legitimate NFC contender for the Super Bowl. Yikes.

30. Washington (29): Well, at least now we know what Jason Campbell can do. Apparently, it isn’t “win games”, though it would help if they had an actual running game. Didn’t they trade for TJ Duckett earlier this year? What happened to him?

31. Arizona (32): From last week’s ranks: “The Cardinals lease on the basement apartment runs through 2013.” Oops. Luckily, they beat the only team that could even be considered on the same level of sucktitude…

32. Detroit (28): You lost to the worst franchise in professional sports. Enjoy your stay at the bottom of the pile.

Now, for the “early” picks.

There are three NFL games tomorrow, along with countless High School, College, and backyard games around the country. While I’m not going to pick the lines for the Annual Touch-Football debacle at the Kennedy Compound in Hyannis, I will pick the lines for the Lions/Dolphins, Broncos/Chiefs and Cowboys/Bucs.

I was 9-6-1 last week (I know – I’m as shocked as you are at a winning week), and I was 10-6-1 if you count the Michigan (+7) pick over Ohio State. I’m not fully recovered from that game, at least not enough to discuss it. So for now, let’s just pick three pro games, and I’ll come back Friday with the rest…

All lines from Sportsbook.com and current as of 11/22/06 at 4:30PM. Home teams in CAPS

Dolphins (-2.5) over LIONS: I cannot imagine a sweeter Thanksgiving Day experience for Joey Harrington than to march into Ford Field and destroy his old team. Of course, he might just revert back to his Detroit days and throw 5 INTs.

Buccaneers (+11) over COWBOYS: I’m not giving up more than ten points again this season unless the Lions or Cardinals are involved. Even Tampa can keep this one moderately close.

CHIEFS (Even) over Broncos: Let’s see… toughest road stadium in the NFL, coming off the Sunday Night game just four days ago… and still starting Jake Plummer at QB? Oh – and they just lost their starting safety for the year? Yeah, don’t think I’ll be taking the Broncos in this one…

RECAP: Dolphins / Bucs / CHIEFS

That’s it. I’m off to prepare for a long day of eating, sleeping, and eating some more tomorrow. I fully expect to be comatose by 4PM.

Have a safe and Happy Thanksgiving. I’ll be back on Friday with 13 more picks for the weekend.

Aw crap – did I just say “Friday” and “13” in the same sentence? Damn – I’m screwed this week.

Lata.

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