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Week 14 Picks

6-10 last week. Six and Freakin’ Ten. What a craptastic week. I’m blaming it on the short week. And a head cold. And a couple broken ribs. And… and…

Aw, screw it. I just sucked at the picks last week.

As I write this post, four of my buddies are finishing up a poker game from which I was unceremoniously booted. Just not my night tonight; everything I tried to do got thrown back in my face. Luck is a bitch, which gives me absolutely no faith at all in my picks.

I’ll probably go 15-1.

All lines from sportsbook.com and accurate as of 7PM 12/07/06. Home teams in CAPS

STEELERS (-7.5) over Browns: Yes, this game is being played as I type this. No, I don’t have the NFL Network, and I haven’t checked the score yet. You’ll just have to take my word on it.

LIONS (-1.5) over Vikings: When in doubt, just take the home favorite. Even if it is the Lions. At least Roy Williams should have a nice day.

Ravens (+3) over CHIEFS: One of two things happens in this game. Either the Ravens are completely exposed, proving last week was no fluke, or the Arrowhead myth is debunked, and the Chiefs can’t cover the 3-points without a better defense.

Patriots (-3.5) over DOLPHINS: Nice rumor started today saying Nick Saban had a “secret” interview with the University of Alabama last night. Gee – anybody else think maybe it was started by someone in the Patriots’ organization?

Falcons (-3) over BUCS: There is nothing I hate more than having to rely on Michael Vick to cover as a road favorite. Maybe having to rely on Joey Harrington or J.P. Losman to do the same. No, no – I hate Mike Vick more…

Eagles (+1) over REDSKINS: Did anybody think Jeff Garcia had a 300+ yard game left in his arm? Talk about a stat line from out of the blue… By the way – the Eagles defense is still surprisingly competent, which is much more than I can say for the Redskins offense…

Giants (+3) over PANTHERS: I’m kind of cheating with this pick, since just as I was looking at this, wondering how the Panthers could be a favorite without Jake Delhomme, the line got pulled from every sportsbook imaginable. My guess is it will come back at about Giants (-4.5). I’d be happy with either line, personally.

Colts (-2) over JAGUARS: Considering how inconsistent the Jags have been this season, I’m stunned this line is so low. The Titans’ loss should serve as a wake up call for the Colts, kind of like the Monday Night loss at Miami for the Patriots back in ’04. Indy’s going to be dangerous for the next few weeks…

Titans (+1.5) over TEXANS: Wait a minute… I know the Titans have won the last two games on last-second field goals, but the Texans can’t even say that much. I mean, they registered negative-five passing yards last week. How are they favored, home team or not?

Raiders (+11) over BENGALS: I’m intrigued to see if the Raiders’ passing D really is as good as the numbers say. This should be one hell of a test. On the flip side, look for Randy Moss to have a big game – he’s really overdue for one, and needs to boost his trade value if he ever wants out of Oakland. Cincy’s soft defensive backs should provide him plenty of open looks.

Seahawks (-3.5) over CARDINALS: No way in hell I believe Arizona wins back to back games, and right now, the Seahawks are the second best team in the NFC.

49ERS (-4) over Packers: Brett Favre says he needs ankle surgery after the season ends. If that doesn’t sound like an early retirement announcement, I don’t know what does.

CHARGERS (-7) over Broncos: Ya know, I’ve been rethinking this whole “The Chargers are the best team in the NFL” theory of mine. They had to complete massive comeback wins over the Bengals and Broncos, then came from behind against the Raiders, and almost coughed one up to Buffalo. Maybe they’re not as good as I thought… Of course, right now the Broncos are gawd-awful, so who knows.

JETS (-3.5) over Bills: I can’t believe I’m saying this, but right now, the Jets are a playoff team. Damn, I suddenly feel the urge to puke.

COWBOYS (-6.5) over Saints: I have four players involved in this game with one on the bench – Deuce MacAllister, Joe Horn (benched) Julius Jones, Terry Glenn and Tony Romo. Do you see a pattern there? Yeah – I’m expecting a big day from the Dallas offense. Of course, if the past few games are any indication, Terrell Owens will catch six passes (and drop four) for about 180 yards, and Marion Barber will score all three TDs. Naturally.

Bears (-6) over RAMS: Well, that will certainly be the last time I voluntarily back the Rams for awhile…

RECAP: STEELERS / LIONS / Ravens / Patriots / Falcons / Eagles / Giants / Colts / Titans / Raiders / Seahawks / 49ERS / CHARGERS / JETS / COWBOYS / Bears

That’s all I got for now. Gonna go watch the rest of the poker game.

Lata.

posted by Big D @ 9:29 PM