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Week 13 Picks

Holy crap – there’s another Thursday game this week? Damnit… now I have to rush my picks.

I’m building off back-to-back winning weeks (9-7-1, 10-6). I know – shocked the hell out of me too. Let’s see if I can keep getting better – an 11-5 would put be back over .500 for the season…

All lines from Sportsbook.com and accurate as of 6:45PM on 11/29/06. Home Teams in Caps

Ravens (+3) over BENGALS: The Ravens are the second best team in football right now, and might even be #1. The Bengals are playing in the closest thing to a must win that there could be in Week 13 of the NFL season. One thing to keep an eye on – TJ Houshmanzadeh, who will either be a complete non-factor or have a monster game in retaliation for the blown pass interference call at the end of their first meeting a few weeks back.

Vikings (+9) over BEARS: The Vikes played the Bears as well as any team other than Miami or New England has this year, and came away with a nothing but a tough loss. That ought to be enough to leave a sour taste in their mouths.

STEELERS (-7.5) over Buccaneers: Damnit. If the Steelers keep winning, I have to keep listening to people tell me they’re not eliminated from the playoffs. There is nothing more annoying than announcers refusing to let a bad team die with what little dignity they have left.

RAMS (-6.5) over Cardinals: Well, that will certainly be the last time I voluntarily back the Cardinals for awhile…

Colts (-7.5) over TITANS: If the Colts played in the NFC East, I’d take the Titans in a heartbeat. But just look at this – the first time these teams played, the Colts were 19-point favorites (they didn’t cover). Now the Titans have run off two straight wins against the Eagles and Giants, and suddenly they’re picking up 12 points from the handicappers.

DOLPHINS (-1) over Jaguars: Another week, another Dolphins line that seemed utterly impossible just five weeks ago. And another week where I bite my nails incessantly while thinking about the fact that I’m willingly backing Joey Harrington. At least he’s not on the road this week.

SAINTS (-7) over 49ers: Only because the game is in New Orleans. Honestly, right now, the 49ers are playing some real good football. And the Saints, even though they’re winning games, aren’t really holding opponents down with their defense. The home-field advantage is enough here for me to believe they’ll cover.

Falcons (+1) over REDSKINS: Mike Vick has something to prove this week. If this game were in Atlanta, the Falcons would be three or four point favorites. Of course, if this game were in Atlanta, the Falcons would all be wearing flak-jackets as well…

Chiefs (-5) over BROWNS: Cleveland usually hangs tough in games with the middle-of-the-road teams like Kansas City. Trouble is, the Browns haven’t been able to stop the run for much of this season. I see Larry Johnson going for about 180 and three TDs, and numbers like that should spell a big win for the Chiefs.

Lions (+13.5) over PATRIOTS: This game is going to be closer than people think, but not as close as the final score would suggest. I’m saying Pats by nine, but it will be over twenty until midway through the fourth quarter, right about the time Matt Cassel comes into the game and Vinny Testaverde begins warming on the sidelines…

Chargers (-6) over BILLS: You… you’re kidding with this line, right? 6-points? One of the best teams in the NFL is only giving six freakin’ points to one of the bottom five teams in the conference? This is all because the Raiders played the Chargers tough last week, isn’t it?

Jets (-1) over PACKERS: Well, we’ve now established that Brett Favre is no longer superhuman in snowy games. Now if we could only establish that the Packers are, in fact, not contenders for the final NFC Wild Card spot…

Cowboys (-3.5) over GIANTS: Right now, Dallas is the best team in the NFC. And as if that wasn’t enough, Jeremy Shockey decided to give them a little bulletin board material by saying there was “no way in hell” the Cowboys (or any other NFL team for that matter) could beat the Giants in the Meadowlands if New York played “the way we know we can.” Smart move there Jeremy – nothing like giving a team full of prima donnas even more reason to try and show off… At least there’s no chance of Vanderjagt blowing another game-winner (sorry, had to mention him at least once this week.)

RAIDERS (-3) over Texans: The Raiders are a favorite?!? And I’m actually taking them?!? That’s it – I’ve officially gone insane. Next thing you know, I’ll be doing things like taking the Lions to cover a spread in Foxboro, or the Seahawks over the Broncos in Denver… Oh, wait…

Seahawks (+3) over BRONCOS: Seattle’s defense is much, much worse than most people would have you believe. That should ease Jay Cutler’s entrance into the starting role. What won’t help him is that the Broncos’ once stout defense has suddenly become a virtual sieve, and this week they have to face a resurgent Shaun Alexander and Matt Hasselbeck. This game should end up pretty close.

Panthers (-3) over EAGLES: The Eagles might, might win one more game this season. This ain’t gonna be the one. By the way – as I was typing these picks, this line got pulled off the board. I have no idea why, at least not yet.

RECAP: Ravens / Vikings / STEELERS / RAMS / Colts / DOLPHINS / SAINTS / Falcons / Chiefs / Lions / Chargers / Jets / Cowboys / RAIDERS / Seahawks / Panthers

I’m vaulting back over .500 again this week, I can feel it coming.

And if not, I’ll blame it on the short week.

Lata.

posted by Big D @ 7:31 PM