The best seat in the house is the view from the couch

2005 NFL Preview - Introduction

Remember that old Staples commercial for their big “Back to School” yearly sale, where there’s a father skipping down an aisle with pens and notebooks while his children drag along behind him, and the Christmas Carol “It’s the Most Wonderful Time of the Year” plays along in the background?

Yeah, me neither.

But I do feel that way about this time of year, for one reason, and one reason only. Gentlemen and Ladies, (pfff, who am I kidding… Ladies? If I’m lucky, there’s one female not related to me who ever reads this thing…) I present to you, the 2005 NFL Season!

Damn, I’ve been waiting to type those words since the day after the Super Bowl. Wow; that feels great. Like a 50-pound weight lifted off of my shoulders…

Oh, wait, you actually want to read more about my 2005 NFL predictions? I can’t just refer you back to last season’s predictions and just leave it here to go get some lunch? Damn. Alright, fine, let’s get it on!

AFC East

AFC North

AFC South

AFC West

NFC East

NFC North

NFC South

NFC West

Playoffs

posted by Big D @ 10:20 PM 0 comments

2005 NFL Preview - AFC East

AFC East

New England (13-3): Do I really need to sit here and explain this one to you? In 2001, they lost their franchise quarterback, had rookies playing major time at big positions on defense, and had ZERO running game. They won the Super Bowl... In 2003, they lost the captain of their defense, got tagged as one-hit wonders after missing the playoffs the year before, and had ZERO running game. They won the Super Bowl... In 2004, they got a running game, but had ZERO defensive secondary. They won the Super Bowl... This season, they’ve lost their best cornerback and linebacker, plus the Offensive and Defensive Coordinators before a single down is played. Anybody care to guess where I think the season will end…?

NY Jets (9-7): I gave the Jets no respect last season, picking them to finish 7-9 because of injury questions. This year, I’ve learned my lesson. Kinda. After watching Chad Pennington gut it out for the end of last year with what was clearly a damaged shoulder, I’ve got a newfound respect for him. Of course, I’m not sure if you want your star QB playing games when he can’t lift his arm over his head – makes throwing passes just a wee bit difficult... Curtis Martin is still a stud running-back – probably top 5 in the league, and definitely top 5-7 All-Time. Amazing isn’t it? The guy has never been considered the best RB in the league for any given year, but will probably finish his career with better numbers than all but 3 or 4 people… The trouble for me with this Jets team is their defense. Getting Ty Law was a major move. Losing Jason Ferguson is going to hurt their front four a lot more than people think. And if John Abraham keeps playing with his future value on his mind rather than this season, under this contract, for this game, he’s going to be pretty diminished…

Buffalo (6-10): No, Drew Bledsoe was not that important to this team. Neither was Travis Henry. But I’m not ready to anoint the Bills as the next big thing, the way many around the league have done… Let me make this analogy – in 2004, the Lions were everyone’s trendy pick to “shock the league”. They ended the year 6-10, good enough for 3^rd in the NFC North. They had a (relatively) young QB, a very young, promising RB, and a couple of top-tier receivers. Sound like the Bills? A 2^nd year QB with about three minutes of NFL experience, a stud RB, and two top level receivers. The difference is, Detroit had no offense and a pretty tough schedule. Buffalo’s defense is easily top five in the league, and their schedule isn’t all that terrible (although the second half, after the Week 9 bye, is brutal – including five games against KC, @SD, Car, NE, NYJ)… If they start the season off with a quick run over some pretty lousy teams, they might get the momentum to carry them through the year. But if they go 4-4 in the second half, I’ll be surprised…

Miami (3-13): Um… Uh… Um… Hmm… Uh… Let’s see… They have Gus Frerotte seriously competing for (and by all accounts, winning) the starting QB job. Uh-oh... Their #1 draft pick RB held out for the first few weeks of training camp, and their “back-up” RB is a recovering pothead who won’t even play for the first four weeks of the season. Double uh-oh... Their best DB forced his way out of town with a trade to Kansas City, and the rest of the defense is aging, quickly… I wouldn’t have thought it was possible to get worse after last season’s debacle (10^th in the AFC in points allowed, 15^th in points scored, 2-10 in the AFC), but yet I also can’t see how they got better, in any way, at any position… Hmm - can you say “Top 5 Draft Pick”?

posted by Big D @ 10:15 PM 0 comments

2005 NFL Preview - AFC North

AFC North

Baltimore (12-4): I’m very high on Baltimore this year. You know about the defense. You know about the amazing offensive line, which clears the road for Jamal Lewis and the running game. You also know that Kyle Boller has been, thus far, a disappointment. Well, I think this is the year that changes… 2005 1^st-round pick WR Mark Clayton and free agent signing WR Derrick Mason give Boller two new, big targets to go with TE Todd Heap, something that Boller’s never really had… The threat of Lewis in the backfield, along with the downfield big-play threats of Mason & Clayton should open up the middle of the field for Heap. Look for him to have a monster season, if he stays healthy.

Pittsburgh (11-5): Last year was no fluke. Well, maybe a little fluke. 15-1 is awful hard to duplicate, let alone improve on. Big Ben showed signs of an impending sophomore slump during the last four games of his season – let’s see how he starts this year... Duce Staley is going to start the year injured, leaving the full-time RB duties to Jerome Bettis – that could be a problem… The defense lost a bunch of starters, including Joey Porter in the LB slot – that’s a big hole to fill… The schedule makers didn’t do this team any favors either, with a Week 4 bye and games at San Diego, Green Bay, Indy and Minnesota (although they do get to play New England in the cozy confines of Heinz field)… Look for a wild card slot from the Steelers, making their road to the Super Bowl just a little bit tougher…

Cincinnati (7-9): I had to fly through Cincinnati last week, and while sitting in a sports bar at the airport, one thing struck me – the lack of Bengals interest. There were a couple of photos and a helmet, and that was it. There was more NASCAR memorabilia than Bengals’. That’s kinda sad. This team has looked better and better every year since Marvin Lewis took over. Unfortunately, the schedule this year has dealt them a brutal hand. Looking over their games, the only time that they look to get any kind of momentum, it will probably be backwards momentum right after their Week 10 bye when they play three of the toughest teams in the league (Indy, Balt, @Pitt). Rudi Johnson is still a stud RB, and Carson Palmer is progressing very nicely. But there are still holes on defense that need to be addressed, and if memory serves me (which is never a guarantee), their special teams last season was not exactly special… Give them two more years, then Bengals fans can complain…

Cleveland (6-10): Well, 6-10 is an improvement… It’s funny; when Bill Belichick left Cleveland, he was vilified and burned in effigy for his lack of success with the team. Now, his defensive disciple, Romeo Crennel, has been brought in to be the next savior of Cleveland. Just seems a little strange to me… They finally have some stability at the QB position, even if that “stability” is in the form of Trent Dilfer – hey, the guy did win a Super Bowl… The defense is in bad shape, but after completely overhauling the D-Line (mostly by sending them all to the Broncos), Crennel is looking to focus on run-stopping first... They get stuck with a rough closing half of the season, with games @Pittsburgh, home for Miami, @Minnesota, home for Jacksonville, @Cincy, @Oakland, home for Pittsburgh and then Baltimore. A 1-7 finish to the year is not out of the question - thank God for Miami…

posted by Big D @ 10:14 PM 0 comments

2005 NFL Preview - AFC South

AFC South

Indianapolis (12-4): All the regular season wins and touchdowns in the world don’t mean anything unless they get home-field advantage in the playoffs… After the first two weeks (@ Bal, JAX), look for Peyton Manning to go absolutely off the charts, as the next five games leading up to the Week 8 bye put the Colts up against some of the worst defenses in the league (CLE, @Ten, @SF, STL, @Hou). Of course, after the bye they have to deal with New England, Pittsburgh and San Diego… The Colts’ defense and special teams were surprisingly good last season, but if Dwight Freeney can’t recover from his off-season surgery, this team is in trouble… Look for Edgerrin James to have a monster season in his contract year…

Jacksonville (9-7): Last Year, I picked Jacksonville as my sleeper team to win the AFC Wild Card. This year, there’s nothing sleeper about them. True, they need a healthy Fred Taylor to remain competitive, but he’s stayed on the field for two seasons now without the wheels flying off… Their defense is still solid, and the receiving corps looks good. Throw in Byron Leftwich coming into his own, and they’ve got a chance to do some serious damage… Of course, a friendly schedule doesn’t hurt, either, and in their 10 games after the Week 7 bye, they play only two games in which they will be a legitimate underdog – Week 10 vs. Baltimore and Week 14 vs. Indianapolis. Both home games, both games that they can win…

Tennessee (7-9): Admittedly, they have a brutal opening month of the season (@Pit, BAL, @STL, Ind), but once you get past those games, they have a very winnable ¾ of the season… Steve McNair probably doesn’t have much left in the tank, and his receiving corps got a little thinner with the loss of Derrick Mason. But Chris Brown is a legitimate running threat, and the defense is still good... Getting Pac-Man Jones signed and into camp was a major accomplishment. He’s the shutdown corner that they’ll need with two games a year against the Colts… 4-3 to end their year is not entirely out of the question, and every small victory helps…

Houston (6-10): Somehow, they’re getting worse. I gave Houston a lot of respect last year, putting them at 8-8 and maybe even expecting them to compete for a Wild Card slot. This year, I have no such delusions... David Carr is a good QB, when he can stay on his feet. Dominick Davis is a very good young RB with a lot of potential, but again, his success depends on the strength of the offensive line. Andre Johnson is a great young WR with the potential to be a 100-catch, 1200-yard kind of guy every season… On defense, they have an aging backfield and a mediocre D-Line… After starting the year against two of the best defenses in the NFL (@Buf, PIT), they get stuck with the worst possible bye week and then a 14-game stretch that includes two each against Indy & Jacksonville, one at Baltimore, and two West-Coast trips to Seattle and San Francisco, though the Niners shouldn’t pose too much of a challenge…

posted by Big D @ 10:06 PM 0 comments

2005 NFL Preview - AFC West

AFC West

San Diego (12-4): In one of my articles for DocSports.com, I wrote how stunned I was to learn that the Over/Under for regular season wins for the Chargers was only set at 8 wins... This is a very talented team with a ridiculously friendly schedule. They do have to make 4 East Coast trips this year (NE, Philadelphia, NYJ and Washington), but only two of those look like they’ll be tough games and probably losses. They did get stuck traveling to Indianapolis, but that’s not a guaranteed loss. Remember – outdoor teams don’t generally get worse when they go indoors, especially teams like San Diego that have speed… They got a lot better on defense through the draft, and with Tomlinson, Gates and Brees, the offense looks as strong as ever.

Kansas City (8-8): Before their Week 5 bye, they have to travel to Oakland & Denver – two division road games in two hostile environments. The Chiefs actually got lucky by traveling to Denver in September rather than December. For them to finish the season at 8-8 will be quite a feat… They’re still an offense-first team, but the defense is coming along nicely with the acquisition of Patrick Surtain from Miami and the drafting of Derrick Johnson in the first round this year. One or two more pieces, and the Chiefs will be right back to fighting for the top of this division… Priest Holmes’ return from injury will be a major factor this year. If he’s healthy, they have one of the best ground games in the NFL. If not, Derrick Blaylock and Larry Johnson will have to grind it out to keep up the ridiculous pace that Holmes has set in his first four seasons as a Chief.

Oakland (8-8): I’m not sold on this record yet. In fact, I might drop it back to 7-9 or 6-10 before the season starts... They didn’t get any younger, again, during the off-season… Randy Moss and Lamont Jordan were great pick-ups. Jordan instantly adds a running threat that Oakland hasn’t had in many years (think… Bo Jackson – and that’s pretty sad)… Unfortunately, they’re relying on Kerry Collins to run the offense for them. And while he’ll be able to throw the deep ball to Moss & Jerry Porter (who is primed for a MONSTER season, by the way), I’m worried about his decision-making and ability to protect the ball…On defense, they still have to rely on Warren Sapp & Ted Washington up front, two overweight and overrated lineman who are both well past their primes. The defensive secondary is abysmal – drafting Stanford Routt (?!?) in the second round as a “Project Pick” is inexcusable. Fabian Washington had better be able to cover the entire field, or else the Raiders are in deep trouble…

Denver (5-11): 6-10 might be a little more accurate, but either way, the Broncos are in trouble… Jake Plummer obviously just can’t get it done. Mike Anderson & Tatum Bell in the backfield is a scary thought. They have a total of one very good player on defense - Champ Bailey… ¾ of their defensive line was imported from Cleveland, either through trade or free agency. The same defensive line that ranked dead last against the run last season… Still, with all of that, they’re going to find a way to win some games. Just not enough to get them back to the playoffs for another first-round blowout by Indianapolis…

posted by Big D @ 10:02 PM 0 comments

2005 NFL Preview - NFC East

NFC East

Philadelphia (11-5): Nothing would shock me with the Eagles this year. Actually, let me take that back. Going 16-0 would shock me. But I think anything is possible between 3-13 and 13-3. They are absolutely the most overrated team I’ve seen in the last decade. The only constant with them is Donovan McNabb; Owens and Westbrook are disgruntled. Mitchell is gone, Pinkston is hurt, and some of the major cogs on defense walked for better money in the off-season. Can’t you just see it, Week 17 against Washington, needing a win to secure home-field (or maybe even !gasp! a playoff spot) and Owens and McNabb have to work out the play through a series of clicks, whistles and hand signals?

Dallas (9-7): No way does Bill Parcels allow his team to repeat that disaster from last season... He’s going to will them to a winning record if it kills him. He’s got his hand-picked QB, two former top-of-the-line Wide Receivers, and an absolute S-T-U-D at running back – they’re going to win this year... Throw in the upgraded defense that was built to execute the system that he wants to play, and I don’t see any reason for them not to win at least 9 games, and maybe even challenge the Eagles for the NFC East title… At the very least, look for them to wrap up a wild card berth and do some serious damage in the playoffs…

NY Giants (6-10): Well, I’m spending Labor Day weekend in New Jersey this year, and I expect to take a lot of heat for this pick… Here’s the thing – this team needs more than just Eli Manning to win. The defense is getting older in a hurry. The only upgrade was at wide receiver, from Ike Hilliard to Plaxico Burress. Wait until the first time Plax’ mind isn’t in the game and he forgets his route – you think NY fans are going to ease off of him like Steelers’ fans used to? Tiki Barber should still be good for about 1300 yards, 14 TD’s and 12 fumbles… Much like the Saints, they’ve got the schedule to make a decent run if they can just catch a couple of breaks – maybe even see .500 for the season. But again, you can’t rely on catching a break…

Washington (5-11): After careful consideration, and having learned from past mistakes, I’ve decided not to pick Washington to reach the Super Bowl this year. Maybe it’s the lack of a quality QB. Maybe it’s the terrible offensive line. Maybe it’s the fact that their defensive secondary would probably allow me to throw for 350 yards and 3 TD’s. Or maybe it’s just that they’re not very good. Joe Gibbs just doesn’t have the talent to execute the type of game plan that he wants to. If he can get some size on the O-Line, Clinton Portis can be an absolute force, taking the pressure off of Patrick Ramsey and allowing him to throw to one of his many downfield threats (Santana Moss, David Patten, Kevin Dyson). But until that happens, they’ll be cellar dwellers in the NFC East…

posted by Big D @ 9:57 PM 1 comments

2005 NFL Preview - NFC North

NFC North

Minnesota (11-5): By far the most improved team in the NFL this off-season, the Vikings took the two biggest weaknesses of their team (the defensive backfield and Randy Moss’ head) and fixed both… Bringing in Fred Smoot and Darren Sharper addressed the defensive backfield issues, and shipping Moss to Oakland eliminated him from the picture. Brad Johnson, Pat Williams and Travis Taylor, three other major free agent acquisitions, should solidify the backup QB, defensive line and Wide Receiver positions, respectively… Nate Burleson was already poised to break out, and with Troy Williamson and Erasmus James coming to the Vikings via the draft, Minnesota looks ready to jump to the head of the class in the NFC…

Detroit (9-7): OK, after referencing the Lions throughout this preview as the prime example of a team with far too much expected of them last year, now I’m expecting them to do “great” things this year. Very simply, they have the luxury of playing the Bears and Packers twice, two teams that couldn’t cover a wide receiver on a go route if they had a bottle of super glue in each hand – have you heard that the Lions have a couple of pretty good receivers? The only thing that could hurt them is the extremely early (Week 3) bye. They’ll have to play 14 straight games after that with no break, not to mention the possibility of the playoffs. They open with three winnable games (GB, @Chi, @TB) before running squarely into Baltimore and Carolina, which should put them right back in their place. They’ve got a good shot at the playoffs this year, just as long as they stay healthy…

Green Bay (6-10): Oh my. This can’t be right. I feel like I should hide under my desk to avoid the lightning bolts. 6-10? Really? Well, Brett Favre actually is mortal. Ahman Green seems to have solved that nasty little fumbling habit, but you never know. The receivers are still good, but will only be as good as the man getting them the ball, so who knows how that will end up… The defense is the problem. For two years running, they haven’t been able to stop any above-average passing offense. Now it seems like they can’t stop the run either. That spells some serious trouble. But from a fantasy perspective, think about it like this – with such a bad defense, the Packers’ offense will spend a lot of time on the field. With the ball in their hands that often, they’ve gotta put up some decent points. It’s the ’99 Rams / ’04 Colts “Theory of Relatively Lousy Defense”…

Chicago (2-14): Da Bears. Da poor, poor Bears. They actually tried to get better this year, taking the best RB in the draft in 1^st-round pick Cedric Benson and signing Muhsin Muhammed as a big target for Rex Grossman. Then Grossman broke his ankle and Benson lost his mind (is he still holding out?), and suddenly the Bears look like this year’s version of the unscheduled bye week, a dubious honor held by the 49ers and Chargers in the past two years. Even worse, they didn’t have a bad defense before all of the offensive losses. Unfortunately, in the reverse of the “Theory of Relatively Lousy Defense”, the Bears’ defense will have to spend an inordinate amount of time on the field because the offense won’t be able to move the ball. In time, that, plus the Week 4 bye, will take their toll…

posted by Big D @ 9:49 PM 0 comments

2005 NFL Preview - NFC South

NFC South

Carolina (13-3): Ah, the schedule makers must be wearing Carolina Blue this year… In their first six games, they play only one quality opponent (New England). After the bye, they do have to face some playoff-possible teams in Atlanta, Minnesota, and the Jets. But the only thing that kept Carolina out of the playoffs last year was a horrific string of injuries to the majority of the offense and parts of the defense… They need to settle on a running back, and soon. They need to find a way to replace Muhsin Muhammed (think: Keary Colbert), and they need to hope Steve Smith comes back strong. On defense, well, I think their defense will be just fine…

Atlanta (11-5): I was all ready to put Atlanta atop this division in a cakewalk until I looked at the Panthers’ schedule. Then I remembered that Atlanta really has no one for Michael Vick to pass to outside of Alge Crumpler. Peerless Price has been a complete bust since they traded for him from Buffalo a couple of years back. Michael Jenkins, the new guy, might make for a nice downfield target. Unfortunately, Vick never spends enough time in the pocket to find those downfield targets, instead choosing to scramble and pick up 5-10 yards with his legs. Warrick Dunn and T.J. Duckett will continue to quietly rack up the big yards as long as Alex Gibbs is still working with the O-Line to open up the holes. The defense is still solid, and will probably end up being the biggest strength of this team.

New Orleans (6-10): It seems that the schedule makers are not without a sense of humor as well... The Saints are renowned in recent years for their ability to look terrible in the early season, make a very nice run to get back in the playoff hunt during mid-season, and then collapse late in the year to fall just short… This year it looks as though they’ll start out about 1-5 before making a little run through the weakest part of their schedule late in October and into November (@StL, home for MIA & CHI), before having to travel to New England and beginning their downward spiral... All this team needs is one or two breaks during the year to be a real force in the NFC. But if you’re relying on catching a break or two, then you’re probably not a very good team…

Tampa Bay (3-13): I don’t think that 3-13 record is really fair. The Bucs got better through the draft, most noticeably by drafting RB Cadillac Williams to complement fellow youngin’ Michael Clayton at WR. But relying on Brian Griese just isn’t a winning formula, and especially not for a team whose defense just keeps getting older, and older, and older… I wouldn’t be shocked if they got a couple of breaks, too, and were able to duplicate or maybe even improve on last season’s record. But they got a tough draw for games and don’t have a good team right now. Two more years with top 15 draft picks, and they’ll be right back in the hunt…

posted by Big D @ 9:47 PM 0 comments

2005 NFL Preview - NFC West

NFC West

St. Louis (10-6): Well, somebody’s gotta win the division… The offense is still the key to this team, with Marc Bulger, Torry Holt, and now Stephen Jackson stepping in to the starting RB role, and Marshall Faulk & Isaac Bruce with reduced roles on the team… The defense, as usual, could be the Achilles’ heel for this team… The schedule lends itself nicely to the Rams making a nice run to the playoffs, as they end with San Francisco & at Dallas… A member of the all under-rated team, K Jeff Wilkins solidifies the kicking game for the Rams. If there’s one thing we learned from last year’s playoffs, it’s that having a reliable kicker can be the difference between winning the game (Adam Vinateri) and losing (Nate Kaeding, Doug Brien)…

Arizona (8-8): I’ve been waiting to surprise everyone by picking Arizona to win the NFC West for almost four months. Then I started hearing all of the pundits saying “Boy, Arizona looks really good this year”, and “Watch out for the Cardinals – they’re a sleeper”. Then last week, watching an ESPN Game, I heard Joe Theisman tell me that the Arizona Cardinals were winning the NFC West, without a doubt. Uh oh. The 2004 Lions corollary is in full effect here – if EVERYONE thinks you’re a sleeper, then you’re probably not going to do very much. Last year, every single analyst said the Lions were a legitimate threat in the NFC North. They finished 6-10 and had a solid grip on third place. For as much as I like the Cardinals this year, I just can’t follow the crowd on this one. Give me one more year.

Seattle (7-9): I absolutely love Shaun Alexander’s potential this season. I’m making it my mission in the next month to figure out some way to get him on at least one fantasy team. He came into this off-season pissed about missing a contract incentive by falling one yard short of the rushing title. Then the Seahawks slapped him with the franchise tag, keeping him from going out and getting a fat new contract. Then they were unable to trade him to another team where he could sign that contract, forcing him to take the 1-year tender and play his ass off for 16 weeks this season. Trouble is, no one else on Seattle is going to be that motivated… The only people on the team that drop more easy passes than the Wide Receivers are the Cornerbacks. Matt Hasslebeck is getting up there in years. If anything goes wrong with Alexander, I’m not exactly sold on Mack Strong to fill in the gaps... They didn’t deserve to be a playoff team last year, and they’re certainly not making it this year…

San Francisco (5-11): This whole mess began for the 49ers back in about 1995, when the team decided to completely mortgage the future of the franchise and go for a Super Bowl right away. It was worth it – they crushed San Diego for the title. But they still haven’t recovered from the salary cap troubles of the late nineties… It’s not going to matter who starts at QB this season – he’s going to spend the majority of his time lying on the ground anyway. With no quality receivers and only one real offensive threat (Kevan Barlow), the Niners offense is in trouble. And the defense, well, lets just say that, much like last year, the offense is supposed to be the strength of the team…

posted by Big D @ 9:46 PM 0 comments