48 Games over .500 (and counting)
You know, you would think that after 24 weeks (regular and postseason) of picking NFL games, and compiling a 174-126-8 record over that span (that’s 48 games over .500 – 34 this year and 14 last year, for those of you counting), that I might get a little more credit. Or at least make a little more money. But nope.
My mother does not understand sports gambling. Never has. Has no idea why in the hell someone would ever wager on something that involved the words “half a point”. She nearly had a heart attack yesterday when I told her I had planned to “invest” about a grand on the games this week, but that I changed my mind at the last second (wish I had invested – I’m 12-3 going into MNF, and if not for the Falcons – who I wouldn’t have bet on – and the Raiders, I’d be 14-1).
“Wait a minute. You’re poor. Where would you even get a thousand dollars to invest on gambling?” You might ask (and rightly so).
Well, you all know about my poker exploits last Tuesday (more on that post later). On Friday, my friend Jay and I got bored after a long day of post-Thanksgiving football and decided to make the trek to Foxwoods, knowing full well that we already have an excursion to the Connecticut casinos planned for next Saturday. We both decided that we had some extra cash to play with and that we both wanted to play some poker.
Long story short, neither of us ever made it to the poker tables. There was a three-hour wait (actually short for a Friday or Saturday night) for the tables we wanted, so he spent his time at a craps table while I migrated between BlackJack pits. I finished the night up $850, making me plus-$1180 for the week. I was pleased. Now I can pay off my car insurance for the remainder of the year and buy my mother a nice birthday present.
Back to football. Watching the end of the Patriots game yesterday, I tried to explain to mom my philosophy for choosing which games I put money on, all the while trying to alleviate her fears that I’m quickly becoming a degenerate gambler. Her only response was "But you never know...", to which I replied "But that's just it - I think I've proven that I do know..."
I have a few simple rules. Some you know about (my 6-pt spread rule), and some you don’t. For the sake of making this post worthwhile, I’m going to break down most of them for you.
§ The 6-point rule: Even though I might make a pick on a game with a spread of more than 6 points, very rarely will I actually put real money on these games. For example, this week there were six games that fell into this category. Three of them would have scared me away (Pittsburgh –11, Atlanta –9.5 and Denver –10.5), and thus I would not have put money on them at all. The Colts as favorites are almost no-brainers at this point of the year, especially against a team like Detroit. The Eagles may require some thought, but usually I’ll give the points. Same with the Pats, although they usually fall under a different rule…
§ The Home-Team Rule: I usually abstain from betting on my home team, the Patriots. Unless it’s a slam-dunk cover (like against the Ravens this week or Cleveland next week… Oops, too much info too early), then I probably won’t put money on them. I have enough to cheer for without having money on the game. Good story though: last year I had one particularly bad week in which I lost 5 of my 6 actual wagers heading into MNF and was down a couple of hundred dollars, leaving me only about $100 with which to work. That was the week of the Pats/Broncos game. I decided to let the rest of my money ride on the Pats about an hour before game time. I got in at a –4 for New England and almost broke my TV when Bill Belichick gave up an intentional safety – until the Pats came back to win the game, give me my cover and break me even for the week. But there was way too much emotion involved.
§ The Great Players do Great Things rule: Listen, I’m a big fan of parity in the NFL. But some players just rise above everyone else, like Manning (the good one), Vick, Favre, Brady, Owens, Holmes, etc. With all else equal, I’m usually going to take the team that has the better standout player. Take into account the current atmosphere surrounding these star players as well – don’t bet on the 2004 Kurt Warner or Drew Bledsoe hoping to get the 1999 Kurt Warner or Drew Bledsoe.
§ Don’t bet what you can’t lose: Seems like a no-brainer, but you’d be surprised how many people will gamble with money that they think they can afford to lose, only to actually lose it and then say “I can’t believe I lost that much”. Listen – just because you’ve got an extra grand or two in the bank doesn’t mean you’ve gotta put it all on wagers in one week. Last season I originally deposited $150 into my BetOnSports.com Online Sports Book account. No more. I refused to let myself lose anymore than I could afford, even though at the time I had about $400 to work with. If you lose, don’t redeposit trying to win back what you’ve lost – it will lead to foolish bets and probably more debt.
§ Don’t bet scared: Yes, I realize this more or less flies in the face of what I just wrote, but hear me out. If you’ve got a gut feeling that the Giants have NO CHANCE to cover against Philly, then don’t be hesitant to put more money on that game than you normally would. But in turn, make sure you leave yourself outs. If you’ve got $500 in your account to work with, go ahead and drop $200 on the Iggles. Just make sure your other $300 is either saved or well dispersed among other games.
§ Don’t worry: Frantically watching games and looking for updates on scores isn’t going to do much for your bets once they’re placed, and will probably just end up giving you a coronary. Do your research before you bet. Once the money is laid, just sit back and hope for the best.
§ When all else fails, don’t bet: There’s no rule saying that you have to place a wager on every game. To be successful in the long run, you should probably play the “sure-thing” games and play them heavy. Would you rather be 8-6-2 in one week and only up about $50, or be 7-1 and be up $300? Records be damned, give me the cash. If you want the best of both worlds, vary your bets. Don’t be afraid to lay $100 on the Pats –7 to Baltimore, but hedge your bets by playing a couple of closer games for $20 or so.
There are other methods I use to decide where my money will go – like “Don’t bet against Brett Favre at home after Thanksgiving”, and other such nonsense. Sometimes I’ll reveal it in my posts. Sometimes I’ll keep the secrets all to myself. One thing’s for sure though…
…I gotta get some cash in on this.
Now, back to my earlier reference about my poker tournament entry. For some reason, very few people have actually believed that this was a real story. I have talked to about 15 or 20 people about this since it happened, either through phone, e-mail, IM or face-to-face conversations, and the response I keep getting is “No, really, what actually happened?” Or something along those lines.
People, if I was going to lie, don’t you think I would have come up with a better story, (like trapping Raymer to take all of his chips and win the entire tourney) not just talking to him over a few hands and then busting out 23rd? Conspiracy theorists of the world unite!
One last thing. Actually, two. First, I have a new e-mail address for use specifically with these posts. Whether you’re currently reading on my Xanga site or my BlogSpot site, there is an e-mail link that will direct you to my new address: BigD29x@gmail.com. My old Hotmail address was starting to get a little bogged down with mail, so I moved to Gmail for their extra storage capacity. Feel free to send any questions, comments, ideas, money, etc. I’m more than used to the one-line e-mails of “Nice Post” and “you suck” alike – it’s just nice to get mail and feel loved.
Finally… my boy Tex has taken up blogging as an addictive life’s passion as well. I would be remiss if I did not link this article to his “In The News” blog. It’s quite funny, and has provided me with a few good laughs recently. I especially liked his take on the whole Pistons/Pacers brawl, which I completely neglected to write about. In an effort to remain “current’ and “hip” (do the kids still say “hip”?), I will simply forget that the event ever happened, or at least I will forget about it until the next time I am hard up for material.
See you later in the week…
"Luck"
“Oh dear God. Is it really 6:45 already?”
That was about the only thought I could muster this morning as my alarm blared the new Green Day single off the radio to alert me to the fact that I was running late. Very late. Usually my alarm goes off twice – once at 5:30, once at 6:30. If I’m really tired, I’ll hit snooze for five minutes, but then I have to hurry or I’ll be late for work. Today, I hit snooze, multiple times, which is always a bad idea, but especially when you consider that I didn’t go to bed until almost 3:00AM.
“But D, it was a work night! Why would you stay up so late?”
Oh, dear friends. I assure you I had a good reason…
Today’s word of the day is “Luck”. Luck can do a lot for you in life. Personally, I know it’s cliché, but I’d much rather be lucky than good. Luck can also be a bitch, like when you play in three straight coin-flip poker hands and lose all three. Sorry, I’m rambling…
Back on July 14th, I wrote to tell you about the first live poker tournament I ever entered – a $150 NL Hold-‘Em Re-buy / Add-on tournament at Foxwoods (It was also my mid-season MLB post). This is a weekly event that is held every Tuesday night at 8PM. Last night, I entered another one. And I was still playing five hours later.
A little background on this event before we go any further. There are usually around 200 entrants into the weekly NL game. Some are pros looking to get some cheap practice or dispense free poker advice (as was the case last night – more on that later). But most are just like me – working-day stiffs who play in their spare time. Given the choice, I’d play poker for a living. Well, given the choice, I’d play baseball or golf for a living. But none of these are options, yet.
So anyway, there are about 200 or so entrants each week. There’s a $150 buy-in ($20 of which Foxwoods takes as the rake – nice gig), but because it’s a Re-buy / Add-on, if you get busted out in the first hour you can reenter the tournament for only $60. And, during the first hour, if you’re ever at or below the 500-chip level starting point, you can also re-buy for $60. So most people pay the $150 to start, then immediately shell out another $60 for another 500 in tournament chips. All money from Re-buys and Add-ons goes directly to the prize pool – no rake. Essentially, you should plan to spend about $350 for your $150 entry.
Back to last night. Remember the word of the day? Right: “luck”. My lucky number, if there is such a thing, has always been 29. It was my old baseball uniform number back when I pitched, and I’ve always considered it my lucky number. Anyway, Foxwoods allows you to “pre-register” before the actual registration so that you can guarantee yourself a seat (they’ve been limiting the number of entries to 250 max to make sure the tournament ends at a reasonable hour – like 2AM). So I pre-register at about 5PM when actual registration starts at 6, and I am given a card with a number to hold a place in line for me. My number? Yep – 29. No lie. I had a good feeling almost immediately.
After dinner and a short (long) bathroom break (my stomach still isn’t speaking to me directly, but rather going through an arbitrator – my small intestine), I made my way to table 2, seat 1. Nice spot. Right next to our dealer, a cute chick that looked disturbingly like my cousin of the same name. It wasn’t her, but it did creep me out for a couple of minutes. There were 213 entrants last night, meaning that they were paying the top 25 finishers. 25th place got $650, first place got a little over 20 grand. Quite the spectrum.
Within the first five minutes, we already had an 11th person stuffed into our table, leading to a rather loud and absurd argument being lobbied by only one member of the table to move our chairs in order to accommodate the new guy, and he wasn’t even complaining. Damned poker players – if they can’t win, they’re going to make sure you don’t have fun either.
About five hands in (and after I was already down 200 of my 1000 chips), I got moved to Table 1, seat 10 – directly behind where I had just been seated. I said goodbye to the cute dealer and a guy I knew at the table and moved. This is where the fun started.
In these tourneys, blinds start at 25-25, then go to 25-50, then a break, then much faster blind levels with antes. I had yet to play a hand past the flop, but I was able to avoid the blinds at this new table for awhile. After the second level of blinds (25-50), I finally got a playable hand. I moved all in after the flop gave me Aces up with a Q-10 kicker (A-10 unsuited in my hand) and got no callers. 48 minutes to win a hand. 48 minutes to even see one hole card over a 10. I am so glad I played smart poker and didn’t just get frustrated and start playing 7-8 suited or some shit like that early on.
At the first break five minutes later I was riding a mini-rush, winning three straight hands and nursing my anemic chip stack back to about 3000, which was close to the average. It was during the break that I noticed there was at least one big professional poker player at this tournament – Greg Raymer. Yes, that Greg Raymer – 2004 WSOP Champion. The $5 Million Man himself. Pretty nice guy from what I could overhear at his table. More than willing to dispense poker advice to anyone that asked for it. He had quite a mob around him at all times, so it wasn’t worth it to be one of the crowd and gawk at his every move. Besides, I’d get my chance soon enough…
Back to the tournament. I kept my rush going for a couple more hands, getting 88, AK and AJ suited to add to my stack and push it up over the 6000 chip mark. The 88 was another example of a lucky hand – I went all-in against JJ (I had him covered), and I made a straight on the river. Better lucky than good. He was visibly pissed, and walked away muttering to himself. I felt bad.
The first break is the last opportunity to Re-buy or Add-on to your chips. The most you can add is 1000 chips for $120, and most everyone does. I don’t really believe that the 500-chip add-on really helps that much unless you’re severely short stacked, or unless everyone else at your table is doing it. In this case, everyone else added 1000 chips, so I did too. Hell, it wasn’t that much more. After this point, I was committed to $330 for my $150 entry. Well worth it.
I started catching a cold streak and didn’t want to jeopardize my stack on bluffs, not this early. After the first break people start dropping out very fast, as “All-In” takes on a little more meaning. In fact, there were probably only two or three interesting hands for the next two hours, so those are the ones I’ll pass along.
In the Big Blind, I got J-6 suited spades. I also got to see a free flop, since there were only three callers. At this point my chip stack was around 10k – high for the table, but still about 10th overall. Anyway, flop came Jc-Kd-6c, giving me 2 pair. I checked. Next seat bet 500. A short little Asian man (think Kurt’s father if he was about 5’2” and Vietnamese – that’s much funnier if you know Kurt or his dad) decided to raise to 1500. The third caller folded, and I went into acting mode. I thought about it, thought some more, gave him a short stare, and then called. If he had K-J or K-6, he’d played it well and deserved to beat me.
The first bettor called with his short stack of only about 800 more. The turn came up with a five of diamonds, making 2 clubs and 2 diamonds on the board. This time, I bet 500 to give Kurt’s dad the idea that I was chasing a flush and wanted him to go away. He looked puzzled for a minute, trying to figure out how he’d let me trap him so badly. Of course, he came over the top for about 4000 more all-in, and I beat him into the pot with my call. He had A-K unsuited. The river was a blank, I knocked out both players, and Kurt’s dad looked at me and just smiled, then muttered “Sonofabitch” through a very broken accent. Probably the funniest moment of the night.
At this table, before getting moved, I knocked out 21 players. I knocked out 10% of the field in my four hors at the table. And only one was on a bad beat (the straight on the river with my 8’s). There was a nice kid there who was very arrogant, and a hell of a player. He also dispensed free advice, although most of it was along the lines of “Here’s what you should’ve done so I wouldn’t have steamrolled you…” But he made two mistakes – telling anyone who would listen that he hated it when people came over the top of his bets, and telling us that the best advice he ever got was not to mess with the chip leader.
After the midnight break (with about 55 players left) I was overall chip leader with a little over 22,000 in chips. This kid was second – with 11,000. I had double the amount of chips of the next in line. And I got into a monster hand with him, violating his best advice.
We had been talking all night, stopping only to play a hand, and sometimes not even then. I was on the button with my very nice stack. Fifth position raised all-in with a short stack of about 4000 or so with the blinds at 600-1200. The talkative kid (Chris) called, as did I with my A-K unsuited. The flop was junk, something like 5-4-2 rainbow. He checked; so did I. The turn was a queen. Check-Check. The river was a King. Chris bet 4000 into me. I thought about it for a second, and then moved all-in over the top of him. Not only did I go over the top, but I had him more than covered, so he didn’t really want to mess with me. I drew quite a stare-down before he mucked his Q-10 suited, which he showed. I took the pot (the all-in had pocket 7’s), and went over the 30,000-chip mark. Then it got interesting.
Our table got broken up, which was about the worst thing that could have happened to me. I was doing so well at my last table – I had learned the tendencies of the only four players that had survived with me long enough to study them, and I was killing them. I got moved to Table 3, only to find myself sitting directly across from Greg Raymer. I was still chip leader, although another guy had just doubled up to get around 25,000, so the margin wasn’t quite what in once was. We were down to fewer than 40 players total, meaning that I was in good shape to cash, if not win outright.
I tried not to be intimidated by Greg, which is quite hard considering the publicity he’s gotten in recent months. And yes, his shades are even creepier in person. I only stayed at his table for six hands before getting broken up again. Tough six-hand stretch though.
I am proud that I knocked him off a pot with a big bet, using his “be aggressive and take every advantage, no matter how small” strategy. When I first sat down, I head him say “Damn, that kid’s got almost four times what I’ve got”. It was actually closer to 6 times – 30,000 to around 5,000. Of course, by the time I got moved again, I was in bad shape.
I had three straight hands to play, and I doubled someone else up each time. AK suited - didn’t hit anything. AQ suited – didn’t hit anything. And then an open-ended straight flush draw off the flop for free – didn’t hit anything. I went from 30,000 to under 13,000 in three hands. It was rather funny watching Greg coach the players around him against me – I even had to tell him “Hey, no free poker lessons here Greg” from the other end of the table. He yelled back that he’d help me if I wanted, but that it didn’t look like I needed it much. Felt pretty good about that.
After a little while longer at the next table, I moved all-in with my pocket 4’s – only my 3rd pocket pair all night (3’s that I folded to two big bets pre-flop, the infamous 8’s, and now 4’s), only to see my triple-up washed away by a flush on the river. And that was that. I finished 23rd of 213, in the money (barely) and doubled my money. Greg, Chris, and a couple of other guys that I had been talking with finished just after me. Quite a fun night, overall.
I’ll be back to play another day. Hell, I’ll probably be back next Tuesday. But my alarm might get tossed out the window on Wednesday morning. I need a nap…
So I realize that there is quite a bit happening in the world of sports right now, from the Pacers/Pistons disgrace last weekend to the baseball free agency period (Kris Benson just got 3 years/$22.5 Million dollars. I should’ve stayed in shape and kept pitching…) to Ricky Williams’ pending NFL re-instatement. But I don’t feel like making this a 10,000-word column, basically because I’m exhausted and still kinda sick. Maybe I’ll talk about them later, maybe not. Let’s just say that the NBA thing was probably the worst thing I’ve ever seen in sports, and Ron Artest should be banned from the NBA for life – go play in Europe, then tell me that American fans are rowdy. Ricky Williams is more a punch line than an NFL running-back at this point, and if he gets back in the league this year it will be a disaster of Daryl Strawberry / Steve Howe proportions. And the free-agents? Well, not enough has happened yet to give me any reason to stay on the topic.
Personally, let’s just get this week’s pick out of the way so I can find a nice quiet place to sleep…
I had a GREAT week last week, going 11-4-1 to raise my overall record to 90-65-5. I was hoping to get to 30 games over .500 last week – I guess I can settle for only 25…
Colts (-9) over LIONS: Suddenly, the team that hadn’t won on the road in the past two years (Detroit) is a road machine, but now can’t win at home. Won’t matter – they could play this game underwater and Peyton Manning would still throw for 330 and 4TD’s
Bears (+3) over COWBOYS: Last week, the Giants started an unproven rookie QB against a very strong defense. At least they have a running game. The Cowboys really look like they’re in trouble – I don’t think having a healthy Julius Jones is going to make much of a difference against a very strong Chicago defense.
PATRIOTS (-7) over Ravens: And it won’t even be that close. Teams like St. Louis, Kansas City, etc. are the kinds of offenses that can take advantage of the Patriots’ injury-riddled defense. Baltimore is not. Think there’s any chance that Bill Belichick and Romeo Crenell show Kyle Boller something that he’s never seen before?
Eagles (-7) over GIANTS: Kinda like the home dog here, if only because Tiki should have a nice game and keep the possession times pretty even. But in the end, Donovan McNabb (who probably gets my imaginary vote for league MVP right now) is just too good this year. Plus, I am looking forward to seeing T.O. on the New York stage…
Redskins (+11) over STEELERS: This is the week that Ben Roethlisberger’s 150 yards with a TD and no picks looks good, just not good enough. Washington actually has a defense that can slow the Steelers’ running game, and if Big Ben has to win it on his own, I’m not convinced that he can.
BENGALS (-6) over Browns: In the least interesting intra-state game of the year, Rudi Johnson has a big game against a depleted Cleveland defense. Butch Davis had very little shot of returning even if he posted a winning record – the Browns are 3-7, almost guaranteed a losing record. How are his chances looking now?
VIKINGS (-6) over Jaguars: I really don’t want to pick this game, because it depends entirely on if Randy Moss plays or not. If he does, Vikings win and cover. If he doesn’t, it’s a close game, but the Jags cover, if not win outright.
PANTHERS (+3) over Bucs: There’s that home dog again. This time, I’m going with it, even if Carolina is starting about five guys on offense that were probably bagging groceries at this time last year… Tampa is that inconsistent. And about last week when I said that Carolina was a bad 2-point favorite to the Cards… umm… oops?
Chargers (+3) over Chiefs: Further proof that the odds makers still favor offense over defense. It’s supposed to be cold and wet this weekend in most of Missouri following a snowstorm today, which means that running will be awful difficult. The Chiefs couldn’t expose a secondary of Randall (I’m not really) Gay and Earthwind Moreland on Monday night, what makes anyone think they can beat a secondary made up of actual NFL players?
TEXANS (+2) over Titans: Never underestimate the revenge factor.
FALCONS (-9.5) over Saints: God I love picking against the Saints, week after week after week. It’s almost too easy sometimes. I’m torn about starting Peerless Price this week – on the one hand, he’s the #1 WR going against an abysmal passing defense. On the other hand, Mike Vick seems to have forgotten that Price is on his team, preferring to either run or toss it to Alge Crumpler. Tough decision…
Jets (+3) over CARDINALS: The Jets need Chad Pennington back in the worst way – Buffalo actually has a shot to pass them in the standings. As for the Cardinals – they keep finding new and inventive ways to screw me over. Who in the hell is Nick Goings anyway (aside from my new starting fantasy RB…)?
Bills (+4.5) over SEAHAWKS: The Seahawks looked like they could care less against Miami last week until about the last five minutes of the game, when they suddenly realized “Oh Crap – we’re about to lose to a one-win team!” I think Buffalo hangs tough in this one, and maybe even takes it outright.
Dolphins (Even) over 49ERS: Seriously, why even play this game? 1-9 versus 1-9… Oooh, there’s a TV ratings bonanza! The funniest part of this game, aside from seeing if AJ Feeley howls in pain after getting slapped on the ass again, is the fact that ESPN isn’t even giving an Over/Under line. Does that mean they expect a 0-0 tie? I think I’d take the over…
BRONCOS (-10.5) over Raiders: You all know how I feel about double-digit spreads. That’s how bad the Raiders are right now. And in Prime Time, a Mile High (no, not Ricky Williams – see, I told you he was a punch-line), there’s no way the Raiders keep this close. And if a damned garbage TD late makes it less than an 11-point win, I’m gonna be pissed.
PACKERS (-6) over Rams: Lack of defense versus lack of defense. Hmm… Well, when in doubt, which is the home team? Oh, it’s in Green Bay, after Thanksgiving, and Brett Favre’s making his 200th consecutive start, on Monday Night? Yeah. Check please…
Recap: Colts / Bears / PATRIOTS / Eagles / Redskins / BENGALS / VIKINGS / PANTHERS / Chargers / TEXANS / FALCONS / Jets / Bills / Dolphins / BRONCOS / PACKERS
Oh, one last thing. If you clicked the July 14th link at the beginning of this article, you may have noticed that it didn’t link to my personal archives site, but rather to a new site on BlogSpot.com. In the coming weeks and months I will be migrating all of my old article off of my web server and onto BlogSpot, because they provide a free autoarchive service. All of my current articles will still be on Xanga for the time being, but I will probably move to BlogSpot for good before the next baseball season. Nothing is for certain yet, but I like their site a little more. Although I may just choose to post on both sites, thereby increasing my readership numbers and chances of getting picked up for real…
QUOTE OF THE WEEK:
From Mr. Greg Raymer himself: “You look like you’re handling yourself pretty well on your own…” Yeah – I’m pretty proud of that.
Oooh, I managed to keep it under 3700 words today! Although I suppose I could keep typing for about eighty more words just to hit my mark…
Eh, never mind.
Lata.
