Final Regular Season Rants & Ranks
I’m currently watching what might be the most boring first half of college football all season long in the Rose Bowl. And I’m saying this as a Michigan fan. The Wolverines look like they’re in trouble right now, but I guess that’s what happens when you get stuck in a bowl you don’t want to play in, against a team that probably didn’t deserve to be in a BCS bowl at all.
Sorry. I needed to vent.
Hope everyone had a happy & safe New Year’s Eve. Personally, I was figuratively sick all day at my own stupidity, and then literally sick all night due to what I can only assume was food poisoning, since I never started drinking.
I know you’re all thinking the same thing to yourselves right now… “But why were you sick all day long? Your Patriots dismantled the Titans and nearly moved up to the #3 seed in the AFC playoffs, your picks went 12-4 on the day to raise your overall record to 128-122-7 for the year. It seems like the day was perfect!”
Well, dear reader(s), it was nearly perfect. You see, I rarely trust myself, especially when it comes to money. Even though I know how well I tend to do over the final three weeks of the season (31-15-2 in 2005, 20-12 heading into this week in 2006), I still couldn’t bring myself to “invest” any more on games this year, choosing instead to save the money for my upcoming trip to Vegas.
Of course, the investment could have paid off. Big.
Remember last week when I detailed my betting philosophy of one “cover-my-ass” bet, one “big bet”, and a handful of “in between” bets? Well, this week I placed “theoretical” bets, where I just put the bet in but never actually finalized it, just to see the numbers and payouts. Here’s how things would have broken down:
“Cover-my-ass” bet:
3-team parlay:
Lions (+13)
Giants (-2)
Rams (-2.5)
That was a win.
“Big” bet:
7-team parlay:
Giants (-2)
Chiefs (-2)
Texans (-4)
Lions (+13)
Cardinals (+14)
49ers (+10.5)
Rams (-2.5)
That was also a win.
In fact, of all the games last week, the picks I felt least confident about were Colts (-9) since they had very little to play for, Eagles (-8) because they could already have the division and the #3 seed locked up before kickoff, Cards (+14) over Chargers because, let’s face it, they’re the Cardinals, and the Bills (+9) because I just hate relying on J.P. Losman to cover on the road, let alone against a defense like Baltimore.
I freely admit that I screwed up the Raiders pick, though I doubt I would have put any money on Oakland, seeing as how I hate the Raiders.
Those were the only four games I missed, and the Cardinals somehow managed a cover.
The “Big Bet” paid off at approximately 150-1. Generally, that’s a $50 bet.
The “Cover my ass bet” paid off at about 15-1. That’s usually a $20-$30 bet.
Everything else in between is put in at about $25-$50, and pays off between 15-1 and 150-1. You do the math.
But honestly, who wants to pay off all the bills and still go to Vegas with $10k in their bankroll?
Let’s just get into the final ranks of the 2006 season. I’ll come back later this week with playoff thoughts, pre-game rankings, and of course, more picks…
1. San Diego (1): Another week, another win, another week atop the rankings. The only thing that might hurt them is, surprisingly, the bye. For a team firing on all cylinders like the Chargers are, the last thing they need is to sit around and watch other teams play. Of course, the rest should help Philip Rivers’ ankle.
2. Baltimore (2): Did you see any reason not to think they’re the second best team in the league? I certainly didn’t.
3. New England (3): They got the best possible match-up for the first round, and assuming they take care of business on Sunday, they’ll have to hope the Chiefs upset the Colts so the Patriots don’t draw the Chargers in the second round. Otherwise, they’ll be packing it in early again this year.
4. New Orleans (4): Not dropping them for a loss in a meaningless game when they never played their starters. If Jamie Martin is the starting quarterback in two weeks, then they’ll have some bigger problems than a small drop in some random blogger’s NFL Rankings.
5. Philadelphia (7): Admittedly, the Falcons quit about three weeks ago. But that was one more win, over a supposedly good NFC team, for the Eagles to hang on their resume. The way things are looking, they won’t get a shot at Dallas and Terrell Owens back in Philly, which is a downright shame.
6. Indianapolis (9): The Dolphins certainly didn’t look like they were taking that game seriously, and the Colts still came out with a win. They still allowed 150 rushing yards on 26 carries (5.8 yards per), which could bite them in the ass against the Chiefs.
7. Chicago (5): I have absolutely no confidence in this team being able to beat the Saints or Eagles. And yes, I’m penalizing them for losing a meaningless game – Chicago played their starters and still looked awful.
8. New York Jets (10): Right now I can’t imagine how to choose between Sean Payton and Eric Mangini for Coach of the Year. They both went into bad situations, coaching the teams with the #2 and #4 worst records from last year, with absolutely zero expectations. I give the nod to Sean Payton, even though Mangini probably had more pressure in New York. Payton made the Saints relevant again, with a new starting QB, and got them the #2 seed in the conference.
9. Dallas (8): OK, it’s officially more than just a hiccup. This team has many, many problems, not the least of which is #81 and his mouth. If the season keeps going this way, I can’t imagine Bill Parcells will want to come back and deal with it for one more year.
10. Seattle (13): Guess I have to put them up here, considering they’re the #4 seed in the NFC and a division winner and all… Can’t say I’ve got much confidence about them after the first round though.
11. Pittsburgh (14): Highest rank for a non-playoff team. Of course, I still believe they’d have at least two more wins if they were an NFC team. Or if their quarterback weren’t a complete idiot.
12. Kansas City (16): Guess that “too little, too late” comment from last week was just a bit premature. They played a hell of a game against Jacksonville (almost coughing it up at the end), and got every break they needed. Now, they have the best possible situation, with the league’s second leading rusher against the league’s worst rush defense. Could get interesting…
13. Tennessee (6): OK, I’ll get off the Titans’ bandwagon. By the way, I don’t care how electrifying a player Pac-Man Jones is to watch. By all accounts, he’s a complete scumbag as a person. And I’m holding back from my real feelings.
14. Denver (12): I feel like a real ass today, after I spent the better part of yesterday afternoon (and the past three or four weeks, really), ripping on Darrent Williams for being possibly the worst defensive back in the NFL. I even invoked the names of Mike Rumph and Chris Canty. Then I wake up today to see he was killed in a drive-by shooting last night, and I suddenly feel the urge to remove my foot from my mouth.
15. New York Giants (19): Like I said in the picks – wouldn’t it be amazing if they were just screwing with our heads all this time?
16. Jacksonville (11): Like I’ve been saying all year – I have no idea what this team is. Byron Leftwich is gone next year. David Garrard is not a competent #1 QB in the NFL. But I can’t see them spending a high round pick on another quarterback. I just don’t know what to do with them.
17. San Francisco (17): Frank Gore has established himself as the heir apparent to Tiki Barber’s #4 spot in fantasy football drafts in 2007. Alex Smith might be moving up a few draft boards too. Now they just need some help on defense, and they could be a serious threat in the NFC.
18. Cincinnati (15): Thank God for the Steelers. If the Bengals had found a way to back into the playoffs, I probably would have gone off on some sort of spree…
19. St. Louis (20): Big, big win over the Vikings. Even if it didn’t mean anything but a little incentive for next season. They’ve got some competition in their own division, but they could be a decent sleeper pick for the NFC next year.
20. Green Bay (21): If that was Brett Favre’s final game in the NFL (and I believe it was), he picked a hell of a way to go out. Traveling into his teams’ arch rival (who just happened to be the #1 seed in the conference based largely on a dominant defense) and putting up decent, if not outstanding numbers while his team controlled every aspect of the game. His career might not end with a Super Bowl like John Elway, or even a playoff berth. But if it ends, it ended on a high note.
21. Atlanta (18): Jim Mora got canned today. Mike Vick is still the starting quarterback (even though Matt Schaub almost won the game for them yesterday). I know Arthur Blank is infatuated with his QB/RB hybrid under center, but at some point they’ve got to start looking at the only thing in on the offense that hasn’t really changed in the past five years… Vick is still cashing a paycheck based on his playoff win in Lambeau. Even the trip to the NFC title game two years ago was more a product of great defense and decent offense.
22. Arizona (23): I just think they’ve got the best chance to win in 2007 of any team left on the list. They’ve got the pieces in place for a great offense over the next few seasons if the upgrade their offensive line. And even better, they no longer have Dennis Green roaming the sidelines. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Green & Steve Marriucci switch places, with Green moving to the NFL Network in 2007.
23. Carolina (22): Congratulations – you beat a team with absolutely nothing to play for. After a couple of years, you can’t keep saying “just imagine how good they’d be without all the injuries”. Maybe the injuries aren’t such a freak thing after all.
24. Houston (26): Well, they did get a win, even if it was over the Browns. Can’t say I’m all that impressed with their team, or even really anticipating their chances in ’07. But they did get a win.
25. Buffalo (24): Their defense really impressed late in the season, even if they gave up 19 to Baltimore this week. The offense still needs to make the leap next year, or else whatever chance they have at a playoff berth might go out the window.
26. Miami (27): So maybe this Cleo Lemon kid can play after all. I mean, he still hasn’t won a game, but damn he’s got a rocket for an arm. Watched him throw a pass 65 yards in the air yesterday, completely overshooting a wide open Chris Chambers. Then, on the final play of the game, he scrambled left to avoid a rush and flicked a pass five yards over the end zone, throwing back across his body, airing the ball out more than 50 yards. If he’d had a little more accuracy during the game, Indy might be staring at the #4 seed in the AFC right now.
27. Washington (28): Don’t ask me why they get a jump after a loss to the Giants. I just can’t put anybody else up this high.
28. Minnesota (25): There are going to be a lot of holes for the Vikings to fill this off season. They need help at QB, even if Tavaris Jackson pans out. They desperately need some receivers (hey – isn’t Steve Smith a free agent? And Randy Moss looks to be available from Oakland…). They need help in their pass defense. Really, the only things they had working this year were both sides of the running game.
29. Detroit (32): Allow me to plagiarize myself from the #31 team last week: “They can’t even screw up effectively.” The Lions managed to beat the Cowboys, in Dallas, thereby finishing the year at 3-13 and moving down from the #1 overall pick to the #1 overall spot. Well, at least they’ll save salary cap space.
30. Cleveland (30): I wish I could think of something positive to say about this team right now. Um… Kellen Winslow looks fully recovered and might be one of the top three tight ends in football next year…
31. Tampa Bay (29): I guess they listened to me, locking up Chris Simms’ for the next two seasons, giving them enough time to look for the next franchise quarterback… Have the Bucs ever had a franchise quarterback? Vinny Testaverde? Does he count?
32. Oakland (31): The only thing they can do with the #1 overall pick next year is take a quarterback (JaMarcus Russell if he declares, otherwise Brady Quinn or Troy Smith), or else trade the pick for a boatload of other help and try to rebuild all the problems they have. A franchise quarterback is a nice luxury to get in a draft, but there doesn’t look to be that once-in-a-lifetime talent in this year’s crop. You know, like a Vince Young or Matt Leinart – the two guys Oakland passed on last year.
Well, USC is about to finish off the Wolverines - how the hell did the Trojans lose to UCLA? – so, I might as well end this here. Best wishes for the New Year, and I’ll see you all in a couple days.
Lata.
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