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Week 17 Picks

It’s Week 17 of the NFL season. As much as I’d like to say that there is a lot of drama to the weekend, let’s look at it logically:

Three teams are in “win and you’re in” situations: The Jets, the Broncos, and the Giants (basically – they still need the Packers to lose or a bunch of other wins and losses to have the “strength of schedule” tiebreaker in their favor). The Giants play tonight, so the NFC could basically be determined before 15 of the 16 games on the even kickoff.

Of course, should the Giants remain true to form and cough up one more game, the whole conference is wide open.

That’s the way it’s been all year – why change anything now?

All lines from Sportsbook.com and accurate as of 1PM on 12/30/06. Home teams in CAPS.

Giants (-2) over REDSKINS: Wouldn’t it be great if the Giants were totally messing with us for the last eight weeks, and just plowed through the NFC playoffs to the Super Bowl? It wouldn’t? Oh, sorry.

Bills (+9) over RAVENS: The Ravens can theoretically move up to the #1 spot if the Chargers choke one away, at home, to the Cardinals. But does anybody realistically think that’s going to happen? Not to mention, the Bills are playing for a lot of pride right now; 8-8 sounds a hell of a lot better than 7-9 when they reflect on the season.

Packers (+3) over BEARS: Only because Chicago has nothing to gain or lose in this game, and the Packers could still be fighting for a playoff birth. Even if the Giants win, the Packers could sneak into the backdoor with a win in this game and a ridiculous series of events to give them the “strength of schedule” tiebreaker.

Steelers (+6) over BENGALS: The Steelers weren’t able to derail the Ravens’ drive to home-field advantage last week, but I think they’ll be extra motivated to end the Bengals’ season entirely with a win this week.

Lions (+13) over COWBOYS: You honestly think I’m giving up 13 points in any situation this season? Puhleeze…

TEXANS (-4) over Browns: Ugh. Talk about saving the worst for last…

COLTS (-9) over Dolphins: The Colts need a win real bad. Not for playoff seeding – think they’d rather be the #4 and play Denver (who they never lose to) rather than the #3 and play the Jets (who almost beat them). But more for their psyche – they need a statement win, and fast.

CHIEFS (-2) over Jaguars: I have no idea. I’m taking the home team that plays in the best home stadium in the NFL, and hoping that when the game is played, both teams still have a shot at the postseason.

Rams (-2.5) over VIKINGS: The Rams still have an outside playoff shot. And the Vikings look absolutely awful. Though I do see a nice game for Tavaris Jackson against that Rams secondary…

Panthers (-3) over SAINTS: So, explain this to me – the Packers have a legit playoff shot traveling to Chicago to play the team already locked in to the #1 seed in the NFC, but still Green Bay is a 3-point underdog. The Panthers have the third best chance in the conference to make the playoffs (needing losses from both the Giants & Packers), and they travel to New Orleans to face the team locked in to the #2 seed, yet somehow, they are 3-point favorites? Neither Chicago nor New Orleans has anything to play for, and the Packers have the better chance to make the playoffs with a win. See, this is why they keep building casinos in Vegas…

Raiders (+11.5) over JETS: Even though I know the Raiders have absolutely no incentive to win this game and screw up their shot at the #1 overall pick, I also know that Eric Mangini was brought up in the “Bill Belichick School of Winning With Class”. There’s no reason to blow the Raiders out of the water when a six-point win gets the Jets the sixth seed just as well as a twenty-point blowout.

EAGLES (-8) over Falcons: Hmmm… Mike Vick, in the cold, against a team with a very good defense and all the incentive in the world to sew up the #3 conference seed. I’m all about the Eagles this year. If I had to pick right now, I’d say that the Eagles or Saints are the favorites to make the Super Bowl.

Seahawks (+3) over BUCS: Talk about locked in – the Seahawks can’t move ahead of the Eagles for the #3 seed, and because of the NFC West title, they can’t fall behind their current ranking at #4. And even with all that, I just can’t shake the notion that the only reason the Bucs aren’t in the discussion with the Lions & Raiders for the worst teams in the league is because of a bogus Roughing the Passer call in the Cincy game and a near record-tying field goal to beat the Eagles.

Patriots (+3) over TITANS: Sure, Tom Brady will probably be pulled after the first quarter, if no the first series. But the Patriots need that #3 seed – I cannot imagine they want to have their Super Bowl road require a game against the Broncos, or a possible road trip to Indy (which isn’t nearly as scary). Besides, for as good a story as the Titans have been this season, they’re not quite a playoff team. Not yet.

49ers (+10.5) over BRONCOS: I’m just not giving up 10+ points. Period…

Cardinals (+14) over CHARGERS: ...But that doesn’t mean I have to feel good about it.

RECAP: Giants / Bills / Packers / Steelers / Lions / TEXANS / COLTS / CHIEFS / Rams / Panthers / Raiders / EAGLES / Seahawks / Patriots / 49ers / Cardinals

That’s it and that’s all for 2006 folks. See you next year!

Lata.

posted by Big D @ 1:47 PM