The best seat in the house is the view from the couch

Sox Clinch

Killer hurricanes that wipe out entire islands (or states). Earthquakes all over the Pacific Rim. The threat of massive volcanic explosions that threaten the populations of major US cities. All of this can mean only one thing.

The Red Sox have clinched a playoff berth.

I know; I’m scared too.

Now don’t misunderstand me here, I’m thrilled that this team pulled itself together in order to grab at least the AL Wild Card (actually, judging by the past couple of days, they’ve grabbed AT BEST the AL Wild Card). And I’m ecstatic that they didn’t pull a swan dive like the Cubs or A’s have been perfecting over the past couple of weeks. But, like any true Sox fan, I’m still just a tiny bit worried.

Worried, because Curt Schilling is calling into talk radio programs to defend himself, rather than leaving it all on the mound. Worried, because Pedro Martinez has apparently been adopted by New York (who knew?) and is referring to That Team as his Daddy. Worried, because Derek Lowe is absolutely imploding in every start, almost to the point that I wouldn’t be surprised if he weren’t on the postseason roster. Worried because, well, these are my Red Sox.

I have very little doubt that the Boston offense can carry them for a game, maybe two, in a short series. But it all depends on who they’re facing. If you start an Aaron Sele or John Lackey type against Boston, you’re going to get pounded. Brad Radke; maybe only four earned runs. Johan Santana – we’re talking maybe only four HITS allowed. And now we come to the heart of the problem.

Who is Boston playing, anyway? Minnesota, who absolutely NO ONE wants to face in a five game series, is looking likely to be the opponent to the Wild Card winner. But with their recent swoon (2-6 over their last eight since clinching the AL Central), maybe they don’t hold onto that seeding, and maybe the Wild Card gets Oakland or Anaheim – whichever team stops choking long enough to survive. But that kind of uncertainty can’t be good for a team’s psyche, or for a manager’s scorecard.

Imagine being Terry Francona for a second (wow, now that’s a scary thought. Hey, while you’re having this out-of-body experience, check and see if you’re able to remove a pitcher in the seventh inning for me, would ya? Do your legs work? You wouldn’t have trouble walking to the mound, right? You can raise your right arm and call to the ‘pen… good, just checking.) So imagine you’re Francona and you’re sitting in your hotel in Baltimore for the next few days, and you’re trying to figure out your lineups, your pitching matchups, and your roster, and you’ve got to create one of each for any of three different teams. Not only that, but your team still has an outside shot to win the division and home-field advantage throughout the entire playoffs (AL has the World Series this year) with a sweep of Baltimore and a Yankee sweep at the hands of Toronto – hey, I said an outside shot.

Now do you play hard to try and win the division? Do you rest your guys and just set up your team for the ALDS? If you face Minnesota in the ALDS, do you concede Game 1 to the Twins and start Wakefield vs. Santana, then come back with Schilling, and Pedro and Arroyo in Fenway? These are the decisions that can really affect a team’s performance in the postseason, and they’re the ones that kinda make me a bit nervous about having “Fran-coma” as my team’s manager. As has been said before, a manager can single-handedly lose your team about 5-8 games a year with poor decisions; let’s just hope Tito hasn’t been saving his quota for the postseason.

As for the rest of the MLB, well, I know I’ve taken a bit of time away from writing about the game, and I apologize. Football kinda snuck up on me this year, and I haven’t even had a chance to get my money in the game (which is a shame after last week, as you’ll see later). Anyway, throughout the majors, there are a number of fun storylines to watch heading into the final weekend. Will Ichiro get his hits? Will Bonds walk more than Ichiro hits (225 for Bonds, 255 for Ichiro right now… stunning)? Will the A’s finally realize that for all of the regular season glamour, the “Moneyball” philosophy seems to have major holes in the postseason – namely the fact that it is based on long-term averages, and in a short series, players that slump for a few days might not hurt their average stats, but they can doom a team’s playoff chances. Will the Cubs wake up and play ball? But, most impressively of all, will anyone stop……

THE ASTROS??!!? Wait, didn’t someone call a Sox/Astros World Series waaaaaaaaaaay back in February? (Patting myself on the back…. And we’re done.) Of course, that was the same column in which I predicted the Royals to win the AL Central and the Phillies to take the NL East, but let’s not bring all that back up. And yes, in July, I flip-flopped my decision (glad I’m in the right state for that) and said that the Astros would miss the playoffs entirely (Though I curiously kept the Phillies and Padres as division winners… Oops). That prediction – about the Astros – might end up being true. But they are playing some inspired ball right now, and there can be no doubt that canning Jimy Williams was, indeed, the correct move by management.

Since firing Williams, the Astros have gone 45-36 after starting the season 44-44, including the current 15-game home winning streak, and last night completed a sweep of the best team in baseball, the St. Louis Cardinals to make them 20-7 in September. There’s no doubt in my mind that if they make it into the playoffs (they have a ½ game wild card lead this morning) that they will be a force. They finish the year with three home games against lowly Colorado, and they just might have a shot to cap off the most improbable playoff run since, well since Florida came out of nowhere to take the wild card last year.

Oh, speaking of the Cardinals, why aren’t they getting more respect around Major League Baseball? They’re 103-55 – four games ahead of That Team for the best record in baseball. And they’ve been coasting for a couple of weeks since clinching the NL Central (even with the sweep, they’ve got a 14.5 game lead over Houston… 14.5!) Yet every analyst says they’re not going anywhere because their pitching is suspect. Let me tell you something. They’ve scored 834 runs, tops in the NL. They have four different 15-game winners on their staff, and a fifth starter at 11. They’ve got one of the better closers in the game in Jason Isringhausen and his 46 saves (glad I drafted him in my fantasy draft this year – 8^th round. He’s been a lifesaver, even if I’m doomed to a 7^th place finish). Hell, if people want to call all of that smoke and mirrors, I say let them. Then the Cardinals, and their obscene 2-6 lineup of Renteria, Rolen, Pujols, Edmonds, and Larry Walker, might even be an underdog. I’ll tell you what – you take your team like San Francisco, LA, Houston, or Chicago, (Atlanta might have a shot), and each of their (comparatively) anemic offenses. I’ll take the Cardinals powerhouse and their above averages starters, and let’s see who comes out on top. I’d wager 9 times out of 10 (or 3 out of 5, or 4 out of 7, whatever is needed), it would be the Birds.

Finally, wrapping up the baseball talk, Les Expos. Oh, sorry, I guess now they’re officially The Expos. Or The Senators. Or The Generals. Or The Yet to be Named Team that Resides in Washington D.C. This whole situation has been ridiculous from Day One. The people of Montreal deserved better. It’s not that they don’t enjoy baseball up there, they just don’t enjoy being blatantly insulted by MLB. Seriously, who’s gonna pay good money to sit in a stadium watching what amounts to one or two recognizable stars and a bunch of minor-leaguers? MLB wouldn’t even let them have September call-ups in the past few years so as to avoid paying more salaries. That’s ludicrous. This team has been wasting away for years now, and suddenly they’re just going to pack up and move to a city that has already had two different chances with baseball teams, both of which moved away, and that supposed to make everything better? I’ll believe it when I see it, which, at the pace MLB has take with this whole fiasco, should be sometime around March, 2008.

So now we come to football. Last week I DOMINATED the spreads, going an astounding 11-2-1 to bring my season record to 28-16-2. Damnit! I wish I had enough money to put something into this. Hope some of you have made money off of my picks. Feel free to donate to the “D wants to play too” fund… I also went 12-2 in my office pool (no spreads) to pull me within one game of first place. Not that any of you really care.

PACKERS (-7) over Giants: Yes, that was one hell of a fun game to watch last week between Peyton and Brett. This week will be just like old times (1999) with Warner torching the Packers secondary, and Favre lighting up the Giants. The difference here – Green Bay actually has a running game to go with their vertical attack. Warner will have a nice day, but the Pack gets the win.

Eagles (-9.5) over BEARS: There aren’t too many teams I’d give 9.5 with, but these Eagles, versus these Bears… now that’s a matchup I like. Ever since stunning Green Bay, Chicago has looked like a pop Warner team. They played Minnesota close (well, close enough to beat the spread), but they were never really in the game. With Urlacher missing up the middle again, expect Brian Westbrook to shoulder a big load. With Rex Grossman out for the year, don’t be surprised if this is a shutout.

Redskins (-3.5) over BROWNS: I’m not quite ready to jump off of my “Redskins to the playoffs” bandwagon yet, but I think the “Redskins to the Super Bowl” wagon just blew a tire. They looked flat as hell against Dallas, and Bill Parcells proved that he still owns Joe Gibbs. Anyway, bad as they looked last week, Cleveland is Cleveland, and they’re not winning again anytime soon.

Patriots (-6) over BILLS: Last week I asked if the Chiefs were the best winless team in football. They provided me with a resounding NO after losing to Houston, so the honor now falls to Buffalo. With a stifling defense already in place (they’ve allowed only 26 points in 2 games, second only to Jacksonville), all Buffalo needs is an actual offense to really make surge. Unfortunately for them, they play against an equally stifling defense this week that actually has an offense to boot. The O/U is 35, and I think that’s just about right.

Raiders (-2.5) over TEXANS: The Raiders looked awful solid last week against a decrepit Tampa Bay team, and Houston, although they played well against the Chiefs, they played well against the Chiefs. Oakland’s new starter, Kerry Collins, might just light it up this week and give Giants fans yet another reason to hate him.

Colts (-4) over JAGUARS: I really want to take Jacksonville in this game. I know how powerful Indy is, but I also know how dominant Jacksonville has been lately. They’re following the same formula from the past few Super Bowl champs – build a crushing defense the year after finishing last, then take a creampuff schedule and ride momentum into the playoffs. Seems to be working so far. Who would’ve picked this matchup to be for the AFC South lead? Well, besides me that is…

Bengals (+3.5) over STEELERS: Finally, an underdog! I’m actually not too sure about this one either, since both teams have beaten Miami, but they haven’t done much else. Pittsburgh has the better record, but I think it’s a lot of nothing. Cincinnati is Cincinnati, but I still think they have enough to win this one. Palmer just has to make sure he gets the ball in the air and to Chad Johnson as much as he can, since the Steelers’ secondary is just about as bad as it gets. I say just about, because there’s still San Fran and Green Bay…

PANTHERS (-3.5) over Falcons: Yep, another favorite. The Panthers had an entire week to scheme around stopping Mike Vick, and I believe they’ll be able to. Hell, ARIZONA was able to last week, what makes anyone think Carolina can’t?

Saints (-3.5) over CARDINALS: Speaking of ‘Zona… For as bad as their offense looked, the defense actually looked reasonably decent. I know, that’s not exactly a ringing endorsement, but someone had to have been impressed – this is the lowest I’ve seen a line involving the Cardinals in almost three years!

Jets (-6) over DOLPHINS: Ugh. Really, what more needs to be said? If Miami’s lucky, another hurricane will flip the team bus on the way to the stadium, so at least they’ll have an excuse for looking so bad on the field. The Jets should win this in a cakewalk. I say should only because Miami must be getting pretty tired of losing at this point, and maybe they’ll take it out on New York (I can only hope…)

Broncos (-3.5) over BUCS: Tampa just looks bad, and with all the noise coming from Warren Sapp, Keyshawn Johnson, and now John Lynch, maybe there’s something to it… Speaking of Lynch, the fine he received for leveling Dante Hall on what was clearly a clean hit is a joke. Hall had both feet on the ground, and was juggling the ball. Lynch hit him shoulder to chest, not helmet to helmet, and Hall was not defenseless. That was just a bad call by the league office.

Rams (-4) over NINERS: So, the Niners got shutout for the first time in how long? Well, don’t start counting a new streak yet – it won’t be the last time this season. The Rams need to bounce back quickly from giving away that game last week, and the Niners are just looking to score points – any points. This won’t even be close.

RAVENS (-5.5) over Chiefs: This game might actually be closer than it should, but the Ravens will pull it out. Great defense always beats a great offense, and especially when that “Great” offense has no legit wide receivers. Might see Jamal Lewis break his own single-game rushing record this week, and we’ll definitely see why the Chiefs are about to start 0-4.

Recap: PACKERS / Eagles / Redskins / Pats / Raiders / Colts / Bengals / PANTHERS / Saints / Jets / Titans / Broncos / Rams / RAVENS

Only three home teams and only one underdog this week. Hmmmm… maybe I should re-evaluate that. Nah.

posted by Big D @ 12:00 AM