Pre-Draft Thoughts

Before I get into a quick breakdown of the NFL draft, I need to vent. Brace yourselves.

I understand that many of you see the word “poker” in these posts and simply close the window, or else skim the contents of the post looking for something more interesting to you. I’m going to recommend that you actually read this one, and then you’ll know why I tried to give up online poker months ago…

So you all know by now that I won my entry into the WSOP from www.ParadisePoker.com a week and a half ago. I like Paradise - the competition is usually a lot better than the fish on PartyPoker, and they offer a variety of styles of play.

Anyway, in addition to the $10,000 WSOP entry fee and a $600 entry to the Paradise Masters II event in a month, I was given $1400 to use to get to Las Vegas for the WSOP. When I tried to cash out the $1400 in my account, I was forced to leave $50 behind until my original deposit cleared. In a day, I had turned that $50 into another $500, but as usual, I did not cash out. Oops.

Last night, I began with the last $125 in my account. I usually play at $50 or $100 1-on-1 “Heads Up Tournaments”, but after getting continually outdrawn by people who obviously subscribed to the “Any 2 cards” theory, I decided to move to a $1-$2 No Limit 5-person table. Great move.

Ten minutes into the table, I already had a read on the other four players. The player to my left was unbelievably loose, and the player to my right was ridiculously tight. I liked my position. I quickly picked up almost $100 after flopping 2 pairs and slowplaying the hyper-aggressive guy to my left. Five minutes later, I got crushed.

There are certain hands that make me think that Online Poker, in general, has been hacked. I would like to believe that the “random number generator” is hack-proof, but since the name “Random Number Generator” is an oxymoron, then I can see how it could be hacked by some crazy Scandinavian kids with nothing better to do than sit online and figure out the patterns. Anyway, this was one of those hands…

I had Ac-Ad in the Big Blind ($2). Hyper-Aggressive Guy (HAG from now on) raised the bet to $6. Two people called, and I re-raised to $20. HAG called, so did one other guy.

The flop hit 5d-As-8d. I checked my trips. HAG bet out $15, and the other guy folded. I put him on either an Ace with a moderate kicker, or a flush draw. I even gave some thought to A-5 or A-8, but I was still ahead in the hand. I called.

The turn came down Ah. Quad Aces for D... Now I knew he was on a draw, or at best 5’s or 8’s full. Little bells and whistles were going off in my head, but since I’m practicing for the WSOP, I had to practice keeping a stone face. I checked. He bet $30. I raised to $75, he called. The river was the six of diamonds. I bet him all-in for about $100, and he immediately called. The computer turned over my Quad Aces, and I had a mile-wide grin on my face, as I was certain that I had just picked up $200 on one hand…

Until the computer turned over his 4-7 of diamonds. His Straight Flush beat my Quad Aces. This moron had called down major raises, out of position with 4-7 of diamonds A) Before the flop, B) After the flop hit him with nothing more than a couple of draws, and C) After the turn put 2 Aces on the board. My pre-flop and post-turn raise had to signal that I had at least trips Aces. Until that six hit the board, he had nothing. NOTHING.

Normally, I would say that getting outdrawn is part of the game, but this is a bit much. Worse still - it wasn’t a bad beat jackpot table (Paradise doesn't offer them), so I got nothing. On a Bad Beat table, I probably would have gotten about $10,000 for this debacle. But on this table, all I got was a swift kick in the nuts and two new cards towards the next hand.

The worst part of the hand was that, after his miracle card (the only card in the deck that would win the hand for him), he had the audacity to taunt me, saying things like “Knew I had you all the way”, and “Play the player, not the cards”. Are you kidding? Give me Quad Aces and I’ll play any player for any stakes, anytime.

I left the hand with about $30, which I managed to nurse back up over $90 about twenty minutes later after getting tripled-up with three of a kind off the flop that played out to a full house on the turn. I finally left the table and tried to cool down.

I coughed up that $90 at a different $1-$2NL table about two hours later, again with AA, after a guy with 9s-10s (who raised, re-raised, and finally called me all-in before the flop for $90) won with the board playing out 9-10-A-9-9. Ridiculous.

Before playing last night, I had planned to play a $200+$40 freeze-out in Boston this weekend. After the two horrendous hands last night, I stared at the $0.00 in my Paradise Account, and decided it would be wiser to save the money and actually pay for the WSOP trip to Vegas.

I logged off, and began researching today’s post…

Random Thoughts Regarding the NFL Draft…

n Aaron Rodgers might be falling, fast. And I mean FALLING. It’s like he just jumped off a skyscraper with cement shoes on. There’s talk that the man who was the #1 pick (by default) just a week ago might not go before the top 20 now. What; did the kid’s arm fall off and no one’s reporting it?

n I guess this ends the debate I posed Monday – “Bigger First-Round bust: Ryan Leaf or Aaron Rodgers”…

n I just don’t think Carnell Williams will be that good of a running back. That doesn’t mean that the Bears or Bucs won’t blow their first round selection on him, but I believe that Ronnie Brown is the better of the two Auburn backs, and that Cedric Benson is better than either of them. I can see Dallas trading up from the #11 slot to grab Benson (Maybe with Cleveland at #4 or Tennessee at #6).

n All the talk yesterday was about Washington’s decision to swap picks with Denver in order to have two first-rounders. Personally, the move makes no sense. If the ‘Skins are than intent on grabbing Jason Campbell (QB from Auburn) in the First Round, then they should have waited until Saturday. There’s no guarantee that Campbell will still be available at #25. Wait until about five minutes before Green Bay makes their pick at #24, then go for it. Don’t forget - the Packers need a young QB too, because Brett Favre can’t play forever…

n Minnesota has 2 picks in the top twenty. Something tells me they move the #7 and a second or third round choice to Miami for the #2. In fact, Minnesota could address two needs by sending Miami both first rounders and a third rounder for the #2 overall and Patrick Surtain. Then use the pick on Braylen Edwards or Mike Williams. That would give them their big #1 receiver, and probably the best defensive backfield in football.

n I think there’s a good shot that Terrell Owens is acting as a mouthpiece for the player’s union as a pre-emptive strike towards the upcoming CBA. I don’t think this generation of players is happy about the “no guaranteed contracts” thing with the Owners. The Salary Cap they can probably live with. But the no guaranteed contracts, well… You wonder why Mike Vick didn’t look ecstatic when he had a press conference about his record-setting new deal? Because the last three years or so will probably never happen. Either that, or his little “rash” was flaring up again…

n The New York Giants better hope Eli Manning pans out, and fast. They are short a few picks because of him…

n Here’s the beauty of that Manning/Rivers trade last year. San Diego made a solid run last season, and if not for Marty Schottenheimer’s brain freeze, they probably would have beat the Steelers and made it to New England for the AFC Title Game. Now they have two first-round picks, including a top 15, and still two franchise QB's. On the flipside of the argument, the Giants gave up last year’s #1 and #3, and this year’s #1 and #5. Tough to build a young team when you’re giving up four picks for one player. Reminds me of Mike Ditka and the Saints and their infatuation with Ricky Williams – how’d that work out?

n The Jets traded out of the first round with Oakland, in return getting a mediocre tight end, a second round pick (#47 overall, via Houston for Philip Buchanon) and two 6^th-rounders. This deal, above anything else I’ve read, proves to me how lackluster this draft is at the top, and how deep it is in the later rounds. This might turn out to be a very good deal for the Jets, and you can’t imagine how hard it is to type those words…

n I’m stunned that no one has signed Ty Law yet.

n I wonder if Pittsburgh, a team that has been very, very quiet so far during all of the pre-draft melee, will make a move to get atop the board and get the replacement for Plaxico Burress at WR. Maybe not into the top five from #30, but top 15 for Oklahoma’s Mark Clayton (who will be a steal if he goes after #15)?

n What are the odds Baltimore ignores offense, yet again, and grabs yet another defensive star? 3-2? Even money?

n The Pats have the last pick in the first round. Again. Ahhh, the price of success… Actually, this is a pretty funny mock draft on NFL.com… “With the 32^nd pick in the draft, the New England Patriots select some guy no one has ever heard of, who will become an instant star…”

Well, I’m over my self-imposed 1500 word limit, so I’m stopping this here. I’ll try to work on a post-draft analysis for Monday, but no promises. My weekend will be spent hanging new walls for my mother and listening to the draft on a TV three rooms away, so there’s a decent chance I only get to see one or two of the picks live and then watch the recap later in the day on SportsCenter.

Fun times these will not be…

posted by Big D @ 9:30 AM