The best seat in the house is the view from the couch

2006 MLB Trade Deadline Thoughts

(Before I break into my thoughts and predictions regarding some of the biggest names on the MLB Trade Rumor Wire, I need to vent. Please, bear with me. I know you’ve all heard this before, but here it is again. Skip to the dotted line if you don’t want to hear anymore about poker.)

In honor of my not being a part of the 2006 WSOP Main Event (or any events, for that matter), I have been playing a lot of poker recently, and most of it online. I know – stupid, stupid D. You know better. Don’t play angry. Don’t play tired. Don’t play drunk (although I am starting to believe that many online players ignore this last rule.) Two weeks ago, I played in two tournaments at Foxwoods. I cashed in one (18^th out of about 200) and fell just short in the other (24^th out of 100 – top 20 paid). Basically broke even for the day. With all the hands I’ve been playing, I’ve seen some unbelievable plays, and I’ve seen some horrible plays. But what I witnessed (and unfortunately fell victim to late yesterday afternoon) might qualify as the single worst play I’ve ever seen anyone make in a poker game anywhere at any time. Yes – even worse than the guy who bluffed at me when I had quad aces, then caught his straight flush. Sorry for the tangent. Back to the story…

This weekend, there was a plan to return to Foxwoods with a bunch of friends, basically as a way to kill time indoors on a 95+ degree weekend. Sparing the gory details, the plan crumbled when multiple members of the group were offered tickets to the Red Sox game (more on that later), leaving me with a decision – 1) drive to Foxwoods and play all day, 2) piss away the day doing nothing and go to Boston at night to play in a home game there, or 3) just play online while watching the Red Sox and hope for the best.

Now, for as much as I have spit upon the world of online poker, there really is a pretty decent system you can follow to win, at least a little bit, on a pretty consistent basis. It’s grinding, yes, but it works in the long run. My style of play lends itself nicely to a 6-handed cash game structure, low limits, where I can open raise most pots with just about any two cards. I’ve used this formula in the past with some success – basically I try to pick up the $3 blinds in every pot, and when I do get action, I have become very good at reading other players and betting them off of hands. If I can’t bet them off their cards, then I fold – no great loss.

Yesterday, I was running pretty well on two $1-2NL tables on PartyPoker. In just over an hour I was up about $250 combined, and two hours in, I was still up about $220. I decided to close one table because the players that I had reads on had left, and the new people were so ridiculously tight that the only time I got action I knew I was beat. I decided to just focus on one table and hope for the best.

The max buy-in on these tables is $200. I had bought in for the max at the table, and had a stack of about $385 in front of me. Unfortunately, on back-to-back hands, I flopped top 2 pairs only to have my opponent (the same guy both times) turn a set the first time and a better two pairs the second time. Lost about $200.

I had built myself back up above the $350 mark when I got 7-8 suited diamonds in the big blind. There was a raise from $2 to $6 and two callers, so I decided to see a flop. It hit 6c-9-3s, giving me an open-ended straight draw and two decent cards to pair with only one bigger card on the board. The table checked around for a free turn. 5d. I hit the nut straight, and couldn’t have been happier.

I led out with a modest $6 bet into a $25 pot, trying to get a feel for what everyone else had. The original raiser immediately went to $12, and I put him on a set, probably slowplaying the 6’s, but maybe the 5’s. The next player called the $12 (I read him to two big cards, maybe with a draw) and the fourth player folded.

Now here’s where that drunken player theory comes into play. At this point in the hand, there had been a pre-flop raise and three calls. Remember – only 6 handed, so 2/3 of the players at the table were in the hand. There had been a bet and immediate raise on the turn, meaning at least one person probably had a solid hand. I then re-raised from $12 to $30, trying to tell people I had made a hand. The original raiser immediately pushed all-in for about $125 on top of my $30.

So count the action on the turn here, all starting with a $6 bet into a $25 pot. Bet ($6, $31 in the pot), raise ($12 and $43), call ($12 and $55), re-raise ($30 and $85), re-re-raise all-in ($125 and $210). Even with all of the betting and raising between myself and the original pre-flop raiser, the third player still called the $155 bet (putting the pot at about $365), and I immediately moved all-in for another $180ish on top of the $155, although the third player only had about $120. The pot now stood at just about $530, with two players all-in.

Bet, raise, call, re-raise, re-re-raise all-in, call, re-re-re-raise all-in… and he still called for his last $120. $650 in the pot – by far, the biggest hand I’d been involved in all-day, and the pot that once I took it down, would be my last hand of the day.

The cards were flipped over (no matter what showed, I had the best possible hand at the time, and was at worst tied with one of the other two people). The original bettor had trip-5’s, exactly as I’d read him. After the repeated calls, I figured the third player must’ve had an over pair (I actually though he was slowplaying Aces).

Nope. He held A-J of clubs – nothing but a flush draw, for all of his money.

And if you don’t already know that the 10c hit the river, giving him the winner, obviously you haven’t been following my luck with online poker.

It turned out to be a 5-outter on the river, since the original bettor had the 5c, and two other players said they had folded clubs (one player had folded 2 of them).

The thing is, I wasn’t mad that he caught the card (I mean, I was, obviously, but, well, you get the idea). I wasn’t mad that he called my secondary all-in push, since he was already more than committed to the hand. What burned me was that he could make the call of the first all-in for $155 after a bet, raise, call, re-raise, for one-and-a-half times what was in the pot. I just couldn’t (and still can’t) imagine what he thought he could beat, or what he thought we held to be betting the way we were. Even if he put one of us on a stone cold bluff, we probably had at least a pair or a bigger ace and had him beat.

That’s the biggest problem with online poker that I’ve found at lower limits. People are willing to chase with ridiculously low chances of catching a winner. Even if all of the clubs were still in play, he had at best about a 17-20% chance of catching his card, maybe less considering there were two other people in the hand. If he thought the best hand he was up against was a single pair - and I just can’t fathom any way that thought could be going through his head – he might have thought that an ace or jack would win the pot as well. But he was still willing to dump $280 into the pot with what he had to know was the worst hand of the three still in play.

I’d love to say that at a table filled with 5 or 9 other players like him, I should be able to clean up and make an easy living, but I honestly don’t know at this point if I could. Like I said – my recent strategy has been to take a lot of small pots and steal away medium pots when I don’t have the best of it, while trying to avoid major losses when I’ve got marginal hands. But when I’ve got the nuts heading to the river, and the only player who can do major damage to me is clearly chasing a draw or hoping an overpair holds up, I’m sorry – I’m going to play that hand.

I won’t even mention the two small tournaments I played in an attempt to cool down, or how my KK got cracked to a Q-10 bluff (when some jackass pushed all-in preflop and then flopped two tens…) Nope. Won’t say a word about it.

I need to save money now anyway, mostly because football season is starting and I’ve been looking forward to picking the games for months now. Also, because I finally bought myself a nice new toy (assuming Buy.com ever actually ships it), and will be paying it off for the next twelve months. So maybe this was a good thing – one final left cross to the jaw to remind me why online poker just isn’t worth it.

I guess it really is true what the pros say – it’s a damn hard way to make an easy living.

Onto baseball. The trade deadline is tomorrow, so I thought I’d sit down and break down my thoughts on the biggest names on the market. I’ll also have a closing thought completely unrelated to the trade deadline, but then again, when was the last time anything I wrote was cohesive from start to finish?

n Carlos Lee has obviously already moved, which really surprised me. But if you look at what the Brewers did with that move (and others), they actually look to have improved for the long haul. They obviously weren’t going to be able to sign Lee to a long-term deal after the year, so by adding a bunch of complementary pieces to their roster, they have strengthened themselves for the next few years. It might not be enough to unseat the Cardinals, but it should be enough to make them buyers next year rather than sellers.

n Bobby Abreu, Pay Burrell, Cory Lidle and Jon Lieber all are being shopped around, and I’m sure the Phillies would like to move as many of them as possible. I don’t think we’ll see anything like the New York rumor from last week, which had Abreu, Burrell, Lidle and David Bell (now a Brewer) going to the Yankees for A-Rod, Melky Cabrera, Robinson Cano and a couple prospects. But it wouldn’t surprise me to see at least two of these names move before the deadline. I think Abreu and Lieber have the most interest, and both have been rumored to the Red Sox, Yankees and Angels, so there might be a major package deal in the works. Personally, I think Abreu ends up in pinstripes by Monday morning, just because the Yankees need a right fielder both now and for the next few seasons after Gary Sheffield is shown the exit. (EDIT): After writing this entire thing, I turned on the TV and saw that Bobby Abreu and Cory Lidle were traded to the Yankees pending Abreu waiving his no-trade clause for a handful of lower level prospects. This deal couldn’t be better for New York, and that annoys me to no end. I’ve been sitting Abreu in fantasy leagues, waiting for him to end up on an AL contender. He’s going to be an absolute monster in Yankee Stadium. On a side note – check out Buster Olney’s predicted Yankee lineup now. That’s downright disgusting – any lineup that has A-Rod batting 6^th is just obscene.

n Greg Maddux will only be moved to one of three places – Milwaukee, Los Angeles or San Diego. He has been a National League pitcher his entire career, and I don’t think he’s about to switch leagues in what will probably be his final season. I don’t think Milwaukee is going to be adding anymore, even though the NL Wild Card isn’t out of reach yet with Cincinnati struggling lately. Los Angeles is slipping fast, and one more pitcher could put them right back into the NL West hunt, but they don’t figure to be any type of factor come October. The Padres, however, could be intriguing. Maddux would like to pitch for a contender on the West Coast, and the Padres certainly look to be the NL West favorites. One more solid arm could be the difference in a trip to the NLCS and yet another first round exit. In the end, I think Maddux is a Cub or a Padre by Monday, and nothing else.

n Miguel Tejada has only one suitor at this point (although I can’t imagine that other teams like Boston, Toronto or Chicago wouldn’t be interested in a guy like that) in the Angels. Everything points to the Orioles rebuilding, again, after this season. Javy Lopez is the only other major contract on the roster, and once his deal is up, they can focus on growing their young players and supplying the rest of the major leagues with up and coming talent. As for Tejada, it seems like his name gets brought up every season at this time, and he stays put every year. Look for more of the same this year, unless the Orioles get an offer that includes at least one major-league ready pitcher and one each of top notch pitching and position prospects. The only teams that have that to offer are the Angels, Twins and Red Sox. Boston isn’t parting with most of their young pitchers (though a deal involving Manny DelCarmen, pitching prospect Edgar Martinez and outfielder David Murphy, and a full absorption of Tejada’s contract would get a deal done). The Twins have the pieces for a deal, but don’t want Tejada’s contract after this season. If they added him, they’d probably look to move him at year’s end, which would be a waste if they didn’t make the postseason. That leaves the Angels, who have the talent Baltimore is looking for. They can add the contract without flinching too much, and they could move Tejada or incumbent Orlando Cabrera from shortstop to second base. But like I said, I doubt Tejada moves.

n Alfonso Soriano is not going to be traded. Yep, you heard that right. Detroit is hitting well enough right now, and has a virtual stranglehold on the AL Central (though I have no idea how that happened). Chicago is fading, but they are not willing to mortgage the future in Brandon McCarthy, and they have enough goodwill built up from last year’s run to keep the fans satisfied. The Angels have been hot as of late and are swinging the bats very well, and will probably focus on Abreu or Burrell with extended contracts rather than renting Soriano and giving him the chance to walk in the offseason. It would be nice to see Minnesota go for broke and try to take the Wild Card by picking up one more bat, but they’ve got a good thing going with their youth movement, and I don’t see them taking on such a large salary. That leaves only Seattle and Boston as American League teams that could take on Soriano and his salary. Boston already has an all-star left fielder and second baseman, so unless Soriano is willing to play right (and as a Sox fan, I would stab myself in the eyes before watching that atrocity), he’s not going to Fenway. As for Seattle, they are only 3 games back in the AL West, but I don’t think they have the pitching to compete. If they could pick up Soriano and a pitcher, they might be contenders. But I don’t think one bat is going to make a difference for them. With virtually no National League suitors outside of the California teams, it is looking more and more like Jim Bowden priced himself out of the market. Now he needs to find a way to sign Soriano, and cheap.

n As for other players likely to get mentioned in the next 24+ hours…

o The Pirates group of flotsam and jetsam will probably pique a little interest around the majors, but not if the asking price is too high (Like Freddy Sanchez for Jeff Suppan in 2003. I’m still reeling over that one.) Most likely to move in the group – Roberto Hernandez and Jeromy Burnitz

o The Braves have fallen to 6.5 games back in the NL Wild Card, and might look to move players quickly. John Smoltz, Tim Hudson, Bob Wickman, and maybe even Andruw Jones could get shipped quickly. Smoltz would be the obvious choice, and there would be no shortage of teams who would jump at the chance to acquire him. Hudson has struggled mightily since going to Atlanta, and they might just cut bait now. Andruw Jones’ deal runs out next year, and I’m actually surprised he hasn’t been mentioned more. He’s still only 29 years old as opposed to Abreu at 32 and Soriano at 30, and he’s a better overall player than either. Don’t be surprised if his name gets brought up a lot in the next day and a half…

o Tampa Bay looks to be holding onto Julio Lugo, squashing all the reports of him ending up in either Toronto or Boston. Carl Crawford and Rocco Baldelli are both signed and off the market, and Scott Kazmir should never, ever be involved in another deadline deal.

o The Marlins are actually pretty competitive this season, meaning that their only tradable commodities – Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera – are staying put. They might make a serious charge at the NL Wild Card in the next few weeks, just because they don’t know any better. And we all know how dangerous the Marlins are when they win a Wild Card berth, since they’re two-for-two so far.

o Kansas City has no one left to move. People just aren’t buying the Reggie Sanders and Doug Mientkewitcz’ of the world anymore.

And a final thought. After watching the Red Sox game yesterday afternoon, I’m amending my list of Most Clutch Boston Athletes Ever. I’m actually changing around the top 3. Larry Bird moves to #1. David Ortiz slides into the 2-hole, and Adam Vinateri will tumble to #3, mostly because I’m still pissed at him for signing with Indy.

When you’re able to produce once or twice when the game is on the line, you’re good. When you’re able to do it five or six times, you’re clutch.

But when you’re able to do it virtually every time you get the opportunity, with thousands and thousands of fans in the building on their feet, expecting you to do it, well, you’re the most clutch athlete I’ve ever seen. Bird was the best at it – he was absolutely peerless. But David Ortiz has cemented his status on that list. I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again – he’s like a comic book character. Anyone watching yesterday’s game that didn’t know he was going to come through with at least a base hit, if not a home-run, well you just haven’t been watching enough baseball.

I will be working on the NFL Preview/Predictions post for the next couple of weeks, so I don’t know how much I’ll be posting until then. I do want to put up a post regarding the early Mirage lines for Divisional, Conference and Super Bowl champions, giving some advice and explaining myself along the way.

Until then, as always,

Lata.

posted by Big D @ 6:18 PM 0 comments

You know, I'm starting to come around on this whole Manny Ramirez situation.

For the longest time, I was right in the middle of the pack with all of the nay-sayers, claiming that Manny was an overpaid, underperforming, waste of space and payroll on the Red Sox' roster. I jumped right into the fray when he would inevitably take time off to visit a sick relative (I think the guy has 13 grandmothers, all of whom seem to get sick every year right around the All-Star Break). His lack of effort in the field and on the basepaths has been infuriating for years, even if there's no arguing with his offensive stats.

Now? I've had an epiphany. I have seen the light on Manny Ramirez, and it has shone on a whole new definition of what I should be looking at.

The guy is just having fun.

Let that sink in for a second. If you or I could be paid $20M a year to go out, play a game, and enjoy life, wouldn't you try to have as much fun with it as possible? I know I would.

I'd be joking with teammates, opponents, umpires, fans, reporters, the grounds crew - basically anyone within earshot. I'd try hard to do what I was paid to, but I could be forgiven if maybe I didn't run at full speed on that lazy fly ball to the warning track. Or if I didn't charge the ground ball through the left side that was coming right at me anyway - hey, if the runner tried to go to second, I know I've got a good enough arm; maybe I'd even get praised for a good defensive play.

I think that's how I'm going to approach the Manny Ramirez situation for the next couple of years. He is always described as "child-like", or "man-child". He laughs in the dugout, he invents wacky handshakes, he goes into the outfield with a water bottle or an MP3 player. He just seems "unfazable".

We always hear people (usually they're the "pseudo-fans") yelling that "It's just a game", or "why are these guys so intense?" Manny actually subscribes to this philosophy, and he gets killed for it.

Well no more. Go have fun. Enjoy a nice day in the ballpark. Need a day off? Sure, take it - just stay healthy for the stretch run, and lead your team to another playoff appearance. I'm OK with everything from April to September, as long as you show up in October.

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More random thoughts from around the big leagues:

n So long Willie Harris. When your only job on a baseball team is to be a competent pinch runner, and you get picked off of first base (looking like you fell asleep, no less) as the go-ahead run in the 9th inning, you no longer serve a purpose. Earlier this year, he was thrown out to end the game trying to steal second, when he admitted to ignoring the "hold" sign. He's not even that fast - he's about equivalent to Adam Stern, and Stern hits better and can actually play the field.

n One last Manny note - if he knew ahead of time that he wasn't going to play in the All-Star Game, he could have at least shown up in Pittsburgh to smile for the cameras and collect his trophy for most votes. Boston to Pittsburgh isn't a long flight, and he could have hopped back on a plane to New York for the rest of the Break pretty easily.

n How long do you think it took the Nationals to accept the trade from Cincinnati yesterday? Like, 15 seconds? I'm absolutely at a loss for words for what the Reds were trying to accomplish with this 8-player deal. They dealt away two young, good players (Kearns & Lopez) who are under small-money contracts for a couple of years and got back a journeyman infielder (Clayton) and a couple of bullpen guys? If nothing else, I think Jim Bowden just passed his audition for the National's new owners. Now he's just got to unload Soriano and maybe Guillen and Livan for some decent prospects and he'll be a shoe-in to stay on.

n For the record, I think this is going to be a very active trading deadline, but not necessarily full of big-name talent. There are so many teams still in the running for a Division or Wild Card title (especially in the abominable National League), there are going to be many more buyers than sellers. That could lead to some ridiculous moves, along the line of Derek Lowe & Jason Varitek for Heathcliff Slocumb (which may no longer be the worst trade in history... more on that in a second). Here's a quick breakdown of what I think will happen:

o Soriano moves. Mets, Yankees, Giants and Cardinals are all possibilities.

o Smoltz stays. His contract is too team-friendly to ship him out unless he demands a move to a contender.

o Abreu moves. He is a prime candidate for a "Change of scenery" break-out in the final two months of the year. Yankees and Red Sox seem like the most obvious choices, but the Giants seem interested, and the Dodgers might emerge here too.

o Maddux moves. The Cubs have no reason to keep him, and he could really help out a National League contender (though not in the American League). The Padres & Dodgers seem likely. Even more, the Cubs might just blow it up and ship Kerry Wood, Juan Pierre, and maybe even Mark Prior by the deadline, if they can get back enough talent to rebuild around Zambrano & Aramis Ramirez.

o Carlos Lee stays. The Brewers are too close to contending, and the Cardinals run of dominance is about to run out. By 2007 or '08, Milwaukee will be a serious contender for not just the Division, but also the NL Pennant.

-- About the “Worst MLB Trades Ever” discussion. For the past 10 years, we’ve just assumed that the Slocumb for Lowe & Varitek deal would never be topped. And for as bad as the Kearns/Lopez for Clayton and some middle relief stiffs might end up for the Reds, it’s probably not even top 10. But there is now a new contender for the top spot in this infamous category. In 2003, the San Francisco Giants, trying to reach the postseason and needing help at the catcher’s position, acquired A.J. Pierzynski from the Minnesota Twins, and all it cost them was a handful of prospects and relievers – three guys, two of whom you have probably heard of. Boof Bonser, Joe Nathan and Francisco Liriano. Shrewd GM work there, Brian Sabean…

Quick programming note for you here. I had planned to do a 1st half retrospective (A.K.A. How many mistakes did I make in my MLB Preview post). I scrapped the idea basically because I forgot to write it before the All-Star Break ended, and now that everyone else on the Internet has written one, I think mine would just feel forced and copy-cattish. However, I am beginning to work on the 2006 NFL Preview/Predictions. I'll probably post a couple of times before it's ready, but I don't plan to put it up before the second pre-season game. I've learned my lesson about making picks before the pre-season ends (See: 2004, when I posted the pick of Atlanta to finish 10-6 and push the Panthers in the NFC South, three days before Mike Vick broke his leg. Oops.)

Personally, I can't wait for the start of the football season. After officially declaring an end to my online poker career (for at least 2 months), I am salivating at the opportunity to once again pick 60% winners and nail down some solid parlays.

That's it - it's time to move to Vegas.

posted by Big D @ 12:08 PM 0 comments