Ah, BlackJack…
“There’s one!”
Yes friends, I had exactly one BlackJack in my first dive into the competitive tournament style of gameplay last night. And yet, I still had fun.
Let me break this down for you. Foxwoods’ BlackJack tournaments are run with 25 hands per round. There is a minimum of $100 per round, maximum of $2500. All bets are in increments of $100, except insurance. Everyone is given $5000 in chips to start.
In the first 14 hands, I lost none. That’s right, none. I had either 2 or 3 pushes, I can’t remember. And I still finished dead last at my table with about $3500 in chips (the table winner had over $19k, by comparison).
“How could this happen?” you may find yourself wondering… Well, it is actually very simple. I got overconfident after winning my first five hands (with nothing less than an 18 in front of me, mind you), so I started playing strategy WAAAAAAY too early. By that, I mean that since everyone else had to catch up to me, I figured I’d make them do just that. They kept betting $2500 to catch up, I bet $100 to play safe. And you know what happened? The dealer kept breaking. I couldn’t have felt more like Mike Martz if I’d taken a knee with all of my chips and started jogging off to the buffet…
Normally, a dealer who consistently breaks is a godsend. But when I’ve got 20’s sitting in front of me in a tournament, I’d prefer to see her make a 19 and bust out at least a couple of the other players. Needless to say, I found myself a bit behind by hand 15, when I made my first max bet of the night, and promptly lost my first hand (doubled an 11 against a 5, got an Ace, so naturally the dealer drew to a 19…)
After all was said and done, I learned a lot about the world of competitive BlackJack tournaments, and I’ll be a lot more ready next time around (in a month. I expect to win that one).
Oh, one last note from last night.
So I decided to go play for real after I got bumped out and got some food. Sat at a nice $15 with a couple of interesting kids. I say kids because for once, I think I was the oldest player at a table (at 22.5 years old, no less). Anyway, I’m playing $25 a hand for about ten hands, not doing well (probably down about $150 at this point). Played everything right, but the dealer kept drawing to make hands. Finally, he’s got a six up and I’ve got 2 sixes in front of my $25 chip. To my left are two kids who obviously don’t believe in basic strategy, because one just hit a 12 against the six (and got a 9, the bastard!), and the other has been staying on 14, 15, and 16 ever since I showed up, regardless of the dealer’s up card.
I decide to split my sixes, which is the “correct” play (of course, the “correct” play is only correct when you play it out over 1000 hands; then percentages take over and you win more than you lose…). Another $25 up, and two new hands. First hand, got the five. Double for another $25, got my 10. Second hand, a four on top of the six. Double it up for another $25; got the 10.
“Beautiful!” I’m looking at two gorgeous hands with $100 on the table, about to make my great comeback.
Dealer flips the hole card under the six to show a two. Not bad, since the ten gives him 18 and me two wins. Hell, even an Ace gives him 20 and I win and push. But no, he has to go and draw a three for the next card. 11 total, and now I’m sweating. Then he saves us all (momentarily) and pulls an Ace for a 12 and a miracle bust… until the nine comes down next.
Instead of winning $100 I lose $50, and the night was never the same. I caught a couple of nice mini-runs, but they all puttered out. So I made $300 on Monday night, and gave back all $300 of it and then some on Tuesday. Ah BlackJack…
This past weekend I held my annual “D-B-Q”; a barbecue for as many of my friends as want to attend. First off, thanks to all of you who made it - I had a great time and I hope you all did too.
This year, Vinny made the suggestion that I write a column about the New York Mets (pffff) and how they’re finally making a run… at .500. Sorry Vin, .500 is not a number I’m too impressed with, even if it’s the Mets. Make a run at .600, then we’ll talk.
However, there is a National League team making a little run of their own, right to the top of the NL Central, and it’s surprised the hell out of everyone, even me. Again, back to my “Predictions” column on April 8th, I wrote that “Cincinnati is actually not far away”. Guess objects in the rear view really ARE closer than they appear.
Paul Wilson and Danny Graves have both resurrected their careers at exactly the right times (congrats to anyone who grabbed then early in fantasy leagues. Hey, while you’re out, could you pick me up a couple of lottery tickets?), and Junior is looking more and more like the Junior that the Reds vastly overpaid for.
Let me tell you all something. I’ve been an avid fan of Ken Griffey Jr. since 1990, when he broke in and I got to go to a Sox game and watch him clobber a ball to right field with absolutely the sweetest left-handed swing I’ve ever seen. For years in Little League I modeled my swing after his. In 1995, I went to a Sox game against the Mariners on a field trip from school and happened to sit three rows behind the kid that caught a Junior home-run – Jr.’s 200th career shot.
Let’s not all forget that this guy was once considered to be the only threat to Hank Aaron’s career record. That Jr. was often called the only player who had a legit shot at making the “All-Century Team” for both the 20th AND 21st centuries. And after a myriad of leg and shoulder injuries, it looks like he’s finally made it all the way back.
With Jr. in the lineup and swinging for the fences (he’s got 492 career dingers now after last night…), the Reds actually have a chance to stay in first for awhile. Or at least until Mark Prior and Kerry Wood get healthy.
QUOTE OF THE WEEK
“What exactly is a reverse curve anyway? Isn’t that just a straight line?” – Dom (surprisingly, this WASN’T a quote from my mom…)
RANDOM THOUGHT OF THE WEEK
Why is it that you can only split aces once, but tens up to three times? If you get 21 in two cards either way, it still counts as only 21, not BlackJack. It’s not like the house would lose money here… Yeah, I’m still sore about last night.
IN PREPERATION FOR NEXT WEEK
I really hope some major story comes out of the world of pro sports next week, so I’m not left with nothing to write about but the NHL (No Hope for the League) and NBA (Nothing But Arrogance/A$$holes/Adulterers – your choice) playoffs. God these have been bad.
Today I had planned to finally voice my disappointment about the way the Bruins’ ended their season, as well as the general state of the NHL. But then a funny thing happened last night at about 9:30…
Usually, when a team is absolutely dominated by a great pitching performance, as the Atlanta Braves were dominated by Ben Sheets’ 18K game against them on Sunday, that team finds a way to bounce back in its next game. So what did Atlanta do Tuesday? They became the victims of only the 17th Perfect Game in MLB history, by one of the best pitchers of his generation, Randy Johnson.
Let me throw some numbers at you that are absolutely staggering:
Johnson had only one three-ball count all night, to Johnny Estrada, the Braves’ rookie catcher. Johnson becomes only the fifth Major Leaguer to throw no-hitters in each league, joining Hideo Nomo, Jim Bunning, and a couple of guys named Cy Young and Nolan Ryan. Pretty decent company - (Bunning and Young also had a no-hitter in one league and a Perfect Game in the other). He is the ONLY person to have a 20 – strikeout game AND a no-hitter, as well as the only person to have a 20K game and a Perfect Game.
In the game last night, he threw 117 pitches, 87 for strikes, and the very last one was clocked at 98mph. Not bad for a guy pushing 41. Oh, that’s right, he just became the oldest person to throw a no hitter, passing that Young guy by almost four full years. And his 13K performance last night is second all-time in a Perfect Game to only Sandy Koufax (who was a pretty damned good lefty in his own right).
Johnson only had eight two-ball counts all night too. Not bad considering he faced 27 batters. But perhaps two of the most amazing stats to come out of this whole thing are these. He got twenty-eight swings and misses. That is an obscenely high number in today’s major leagues, where OBP and the ability to lay off the close ones are quickly rising above batting average as the primary stats. The other unreal number is this: of the 31 foul balls all night (strikingly low), 13 of them came via the bat of Johnny Estrada in his three at-bats.
Johnson’s 14 years between no-hitters also ranks as the longest such drought (if you can really call it a drought) in Major League history, but it also gives him the distinct honor of being, again, the ONLY person ever to throw the first no-no in the history of TWO different franchises (Mariners -1990 and D-Backs). And for an off-the-beaten-path stat, last night became the sixth earliest Perfect Game in a season (May 18th), narrowly missing David Wells’ gem back in 1998 – by one day (May 17th, 1998)
So have I missed anything? Oh, well now perhaps you can all see why I picked Johnson and Clemens to fight for the NL Cy Young award this year. Here’s a great stat: In only 3 pitchers in the NL right now, there are a combined 16 Cy Young Awards (Johnson – 5, Clemens – 6, Greg Maddux – 5). Staggering.
Tough luck for Jason Schmidt. His gem last night went virtually unnoticed unless you had him in a fantasy league. What’s that? You didn’t hear about his game? Not surprising. Let me catch you up on his line:
CG, H, BB, 13K – 144 pitches, 92 strikes.
Boy, did he get the short end of the stick last night or what? Mike Hampton, the pitcher opposing Johnson, also threw one of his best games ever (CG, 8H, 3BB, 2ER, 5K – 107 pitches with 71 strikes), but nothing could top the Big Unit’s Big Night.
When you get the time, click here to check out a cool little formula provided by those nice math geeks over at ESPN.com for figuring out a pitchers “game score”. Interestingly enough, the top three game scores in the National League this year have happened over the past three days (Johnson – 100, Schmidt, 97, Ben Sheets on Sunday – 94). And the only pitchers to have more that one of the top ten game scores in either league? Johnson, and Carlos Zambrano.
So, I guess this officially ends all of the “This guy is too old” talk, for all three of the pitchers involved in the discussion (Johnson, Maddux and Clemens). The next big topic then, logically has to be “Where will Arizona trade Randy Johnson?” Wait, trade?! He just threw a perfect game, and now he’s going to be traded? Well, truth be told, there’s been a lot of talk about Johnson in pinstripes before the season ends to finally give New York a left-handed starter, or of reuniting him with Curt Schilling up here in Boston to prove to Pedro that if he doesn’t shut up that the Sox can survive without him. But I don’t see it happening in either scenario, and here’s why:
New York – The Yankees, although they have enough money to purchase anyone they want, can’t just buy-out a contract from another team. And since their farm system is essentially devoid of anything even resembling major-league talent, Arizona is not likely to deal Johnson for a couple of has-been’s and never-will-be’s just because New York wants them to.
Boston – There was quite a hot rumor, even before last night, about Boston sending Byung Hyun Kim back to Arizona with Bronson Arroyo to add Randy Johnson, essentially making Derek Lowe the #5 starter (?!?!) on this team. First of all, seeing a guy who has more wins than everyone else in the AL other that Roy Halladay over the last three years (Lowe) move to #5 is just wrong. But it wouldn’t make financial sense for Boston either, since Johnson is a free agent after next year, and he is almost 41. It would essentially tie up $30M + in two pitchers (Johnson and Schilling) who will both be north of 39 by next season, not to mention what Pedro will command. But wouldn’t it be great to say that the Red Sox essentially would get Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson for Shea Hillenbrand, Casey Fossum, Bronson Arroyo, and career minor-leaguer Jorge de la Rosa? Wow.
After all of this, I think Randy will stay put, unless the Yankees can move Contreras for prospects, then turn those prospects around for Johnson. But don’t hold your breath. New York’s pitching is coming around, so I think they’d deal away those has-been’s and never-will-be’s for Carlos Beltran.
Of course, they can always sign Alfonso Soriano in the off-season as a free agent. Wouldn’t that make for a potent infield (Giambi, Soriano, Jeter & A-Rod… holy s$#@!)
In other news…
Like I just mentioned, Carlos Beltran is the marquis name being floated around as trade bait early in the year, but there are a couple of other notable names that could get moved as the year progresses. Teams looking for pitching will most likely be able to get players like BK Kim, Matt Mantei, and Jose Mesa, while starters Freddy Garcia and Matt Morris are looking more and more like they’ll be available based on how their teams are playing. St. Louis is by no means done, but with Houston and Chicago battling for supremacy, I don’t see the Cardinals making a big-time run this year, meaning that free-agent to be Morris could be playing on a real contender by year’s end.
Interestingly enough, staying with St. Louis, if they get a long-term deal done with Edgar Renteria, the entire population of Red Sox Nation will be watching in anticipation. The feeling around here has always been that if Nomar walks, Theo and the Trio would get Renteria by coming over the top of any St. Louis offer. But if Renteria signs during the season, the next viable alternatives would either be Montreal’s Orlando Cabrera (who is having a horrible year to date) or making a run at Soriano and moving Pokey Reese to short permanently.
Surprises and pleasantries…
How are the Marlins not getting more ink? This is a team playing in a tough division, and they’re absolutely dominating everyone they face that’s not wearing an Atlanta uniform! The Marlins have to be the best surprise in baseball this year. Detroit is a pretty close second though…
As for the worst surprise, gotta be Kansas City. Back on April 8th, I mentioned that I gave serious thought to predicting the Tigers to finish ahead of the Royals, so I’m not completely stunned by this turn of events. But still, a 12-24 start from a team that made a serious run at the playoffs for the first time in a decade last season is a major step backwards.
Even with Randy’s Perfection, Roger Clemens (who’s official new nickname is “Iceland”, because his “Twilight” has lasted eight years now) has got to be the NL starting pitcher when the announcements are made. Anything less would be a travesty, and Jack McKeon is enough of a baseball guy to know this. It’s a script right out of a Disney film – 41-year old power pitcher comes out of retirement (brief as it was) to pitch for his hometown team, taking a severe pay-cut because he was doing it for the love of the game, and pitches so well that he is named the starting pitcher in the All-Star Game, which just happens to be in his new home ballpark, in his hometown. C’mon, any self-respecting Hollywood pitchman would shoot that down as too unbelievable. Sometimes reality is the strangest fiction…
Other “Sports”…
First, from the world of competitive BlackJack… Yes, I will be playing in a BlackJack tournament next week at lovely old Foxwoods. Wish me luck. First place is $5000. That would make for a nice little down payment on the new car I desperately need. Played just for fun and practice this past weekend in CT, turned $140 into a little over $1100 before giving back $300. Finished at plus-$660. Not bad for 4 hours work…
The NBA playoffs just never end… The first round matchups began on April 17th, and the second round still isn’t done - 33 DAYS LATER!! I don’t have anywhere near a long enough attention span to follow this crap. Wake me up when the Lakers win the title, again…
As for hockey, it’ll be a fitting end to the NHL as we know it to have a Calgary / Tampa Bay finals series. And you thought the ratings for the NBA playoffs were low? Let’s just hope that the player’s union and the ownership can get together and get this collective bargaining agreement worked out…
It is officially golf season again, which means that on courses all over New England over the next five months you can walk around and hear the serene, tranquil sounds of me, swearing like a drunken sailor at my clubs, my bag, my tees, everything I can think of. I’ve played three rounds so far this year, each one better than the last. That’s not to say any of them were good. But they’re getting better. Might break 90 before it’s all said and done…
Finally, football. I know that it’s kinda the dead season for football news, so I’ll make this short and sweet. Kerry Collins should go to Jacksonville as a tutor for Byron Leftwich. Not as a tutor on how to play; the kid’s already got that figured out. Collins should go show Leftwich what NOT to do off-the-field... As for Tim Couch, he’s going to end up as a backup anyway, so why not go to Green Bay and back up one of the best ever to play the game? He’ll get paid to stand around the sidelines and maybe even get a few pointers on his game from Brett Favre; I think that’s a pretty decent deal... Finally, Kurt Warner is going to get cut by July, so there’s two places he can end up. First, to New York as a mentor for Eli Manning. We all know Manning will get booed out of the building after his first home interception, and by the second, the New York papers will be calling for him to be benched or sent to Europe. Or, Warner could possibly latch on in Miami, since they’re relying on, gasp, A. J. Feeley? That is of course, assuming that Miami doesn’t reverse course and give Jay Fiedler, a guy with over 10,000 yards and almost a 60% completion rating over his career, an opportunity to be the #1…
Until next time…
Well, quite a bit has happened since last I sat down and wrote a bit, so let’s try to cover as much as possible before I either get bored or lose feeling in my fingers…
THE NFL DRAFT
Even with all of the trades and the speculation, I somehow had 2 picks dead on (3 if you count Eli Manning ending up in NY). And although I hate all of the columns that give out draft grades before the draft picks have ever stepped onto a field, I will tell you this: There were three clear winners, and three clear losers.
WINNERS:
Detroit – No doubt about it. They took advantage of Cleveland’s love affair with Kellen Winslow Jr. and it paid off in the form of Roy Williams and an extra second round pick, then used some shrewd maneuvering with Kansas City to get back into the first round and fill in a hole at RB with Kevin Jones. Now, Joey Harrington gets put on the hot seat this season; he’s got no excuses for not getting it done. Not with the offensive talent that Matt Millen has assembled around him.
New England – Vince Wilfork at 21 and Marquise Hill (Who was supposed to be a first-rounder) with the LAST pick in the second round? Somehow they ignored all of the trade rumors, they overcame the Ty Law situation, and they still filled just about every hole they had. Bonus note: look out for P.K. Sam, the Pats’ fifth round pick. He’s built, he’s fast, and he played big-time college ball at FSU, so he’s ready.
San Diego – They got the guy they wanted, and they got a boatload of picks in the process. The Giants could have just as easily waited a day or two and driven the asking price down, and here’s why. Manning was prepared to sit out a year if need be. The Chargers didn’t have any leverage in the negotiations with New York other than having the player that the Giants wanted. So if New York waited it out, they could have probably gotten Manning for Rivers, and a first and fifth next year, or maybe even a SECOND and fifth. San Diego couldn’t afford to let Manning sit all year, they HAD to move him. New York just got impatient, and they paid for it.
LOSERS:
Dallas - They needed a running back, and they could have gotten the best one available if they’d just said no to Buffalo. Unfortunately, they decided to deal their first-round pick for a second rounder and an extra #1 next year, and it burned them. Julius Jones will be a serviceable RB in the NFL, but by all accounts, Stephen Jackson is the real deal, and Dallas essentially took a pass.
Cleveland - Kellen Winslow Jr. is certainly worth the extra second round pick, but more than likely, Detroit would have taken Roy Williams over Winslow anyway. Cleveland probably gave up too much for Winslow. Of course, if he develops into a 12-year Pro-Bowler and makes the HOF, I’ll shut up.
Kansas City – They have no true receivers for Trent Green to throw too, and Priest Holmes, superhuman as he may be, can’t carry this team forever. This was probably one of the best drafts in history in terms of WR’s available, and KC took a pass on getting one in the first round. I think they were looking toward the future and hoping that the Bills will be bad enough to earn a high #1 next year, so that KC could deal up and get Mike Williams. But still, that’s an awful big if…
IN THE MIDDLE
New York Giants – Like I said before, they overpaid. But let’s look at what they got. They got a guy who played at a mediocre football school and now has the unbelievable pressure of being the #1 overall pick playing in the biggest media market in the world and unseating the incumbent QB who only three years ago led the team to the Super Bowl, all while trying to live up to his family’s legacy and watching his big brother be the highest paid player in the game. Yeah, good luck with that.
THE NHL / NBA PLAYOFFS
Huh? These are STILL going on? I could’ve sworn they ended a week or so ago…
To be completely honest, I’ve tried to follow the playoffs, especially since even though the Boston teams put up less than stellar showings (more on the Bruins another day), I still had one team in each sport that I followed that was still alive, the Avalanche and the Lakers. No, I’m not a hypocrite by being a Celtics fan but still following the Lakers. I’ve followed Shaq since he came into the league.
Anyway, I lost interest in both playoffs after they dragged on for almost 4 weeks now, and each has at least 2 rounds left. How is it possible that the NBA playoffs still have a FIRST-ROUND game tonight?!? Unreal.
As for how I think it’ll all shake out…
NBA – Pistons over the Spurs in 6
NHL – Avs over Flyers in 7, then the NHL will close down for 2 years.
NEWS
I would like to take this time to address Pat Tillman, but I don’t really feel like there’s anything I can say that hasn’t already been said. There’s no way I can do justice to what his life meant to the country, let alone the NFL. What I can do is to ask you to click here to see the kind of people Pat Tillman lost his life defending. I certainly don’t agree with the column, but the irony of the situation is that people like Pat Tillman are the people that gave this jackass the right to criticize people like Pat Tillman.
MLB
There are so many surprises thus far into the season, I’m not really sure where to begin. So I’m not even going to touch the surprises, I’m going to focus on the one thing so far that’s not a surprise: Pedro is bitching about his contract YET AGAIN.
So everyone who is reading this, you all know me pretty well… brace yourselves, because I’m about to say something I never thought I would.
It’s time to dump Pedro.
And I don’t even care if he ends up in The Stadium.
Let him bitch and moan about his contract. Let him use the desperation “I’m being disrespected” clause. Let him go to free agency. Then let him see just how much the other 29 teams in the league respect him.
I’m tired of his complaining, I’m tired of his prima dona act, but most importantly, I’m tired of overpaying for a mediocre pitcher. Pedro today is not Pedro of 1999. He’s not going to blow guys away with an overpowering fastball. He can’t disguise his dominating changeup because the fastball doesn’t scare people anymore. He’s not locating, he’s dropped 3-5 mph off his velocity, he’s done. And unfortunately, everyone knows it but him.
Greg Maddux has been a very successful pitcher long past his prime because he’s smart enough and adept enough to realize that he doesn’t have any “kill” pitch anymore. But he’s got the brainpower to know how to pitch, not just throw. Pedro doesn’t have that, and he never will, because he has the machismo, the bravado, and the balls to think he can dominate just because he’s Pedro.
Once upon a time, Pedro Martinez was the best in the game, and was being compared to the best of all time. Now? He’s not even the ace of his own team’s staff, no matter what everyone in the front office says. Too bad he still thinks he can get the money of the best in the game. Hell, Roger Clemens, who is 5-0 and looks absolutely unhitable, is only making somewhere around $6M a year (I say “only” with a little chuckle).
By the time Pedro’s contract expires in October, he will have made around $100M in his time with the Red Sox. How much more does he really need? More importantly, how much does he really think he can get? Theo and the Trio are notorious already for not overpaying players, and for finding value where others thought there was none (Hello David Ortiz and Bill Mueller).
Pedro will hit the free agent market running after the season, and he will say he’s willing to take a “pay-cut”, by which he means he’ll lower his salary from the current $17.5M this year to maybe $14M-$15M, which is still a joke.
Back in 2000, when A-Rod and Manny signed the asinine contracts that threatened to shut down baseball altogether, I remember thinking that when Pedro became a free agent he’d command AT LEAST $20M a year, maybe ever the $25M that A-Rod got. Now? I’ll be surprised if he gets $12M.
That is, of course, unless the Empire decides to step in...
MOM’S CRAZY COMMENT OF THE WEEK
OK, this is about to become a running weekly theme, since my mother just keeps coming up with new material for me…
There are actually two this week, so here goes.
First, last week while I was watching SportsCenter:
Mom: “What the hell is Zach Day? Is that ANOTHER holiday?”
Me: “Uh, no ma. He’s a pitcher for the Expos…”
Don’t know why, that just made me laugh for awhile. Then she told me a story about something that had happened to her awhile ago as a preface to something she did last week.
A few years back, she used to work nights at a local hospital, and would always go to the same convenience store every night for a coffee and a newspaper. There was a clerk behind the counter who had been on crutches for as long as she could remember, and she wondered why he didn’t seem to be getting any better. Finally, she decided to ask one night…
Mom: “So, how’s your leg?”
Clerk: (Without missing a beat) “Still missing”
She’d never noticed that he was on crutches because he only had one leg. She never went back.
So this week, she was working with someone on a project, and he needed to go and type up a letter. Her response was to tell him “You’d better type it fast”. She forgot he only had 3 fingers on each hand. But, even better, when he got back she still hadn’t realized her mistake, and told him “Wow, that was fast. I can’t type that fast, I only go one finger at a time…”
Oops. Hope he doesn’t read this… J
