Saturday, December 06, 2003

I've been putting this column off all week just so I could watch the chess game between The Yankees and Red Sox unfold. It's been quite fun to watch up here in Boston, simply because this is the first time in recent memory that The Boss has been the one having to make reactionary moves to bolster his roster. So let's break down where we're at right now:

Curt Schilling to the Red Sox. This is the move that started it all. Schilling was the best pitcher available this offseason, unless of course Roger Clemens changed his mind. And even then... Anyway, "Wunderkind" Theo Epstein pulled off a huge deal to get this to happen, and it didn't cost the Sox that much. They gave up Casey Fossum and marginal prospects. It was essentially a salary dump for the D-Backs, and the Sox took advantage.

Fun side note here: last year I was screaming at my television when I heard that the Sox declined to move Fossum and Shea Hillenbrand in order to get either Bartolo Colon, Javier Vasquez, or Kevin Millwood. Now, a year later, they essentially traded both to the D-Backs to get Byun-Hyun Kim AND Curt Schilling. Wow, I guess the big picture / long term thing really is more important.

Javier Vasquez to the Yankees: I realize that the Yanks signed Gary Sheffield and Tom Gordon first, but that wasn't really a reactionary move as much as it was a move that happend to take place after the Schilling deal. Gordon is just one more bullpen arm. Not a new closer. Sheffield had said all off-season that he wanted to go to New York, so it wasn't really a surprise when he ended up there. Javier Vasquez was. I expected the Yanks to go after Colon or Millwood more, or put more energy into Andy Pettite before going after an outsider, especially on that required a trade rather than just a free agent. The Yanks had to give up one of their best OBP guys in Nick Johnson, which will force them to play Jason Giambi at first base more. Trust me, he's not that good defensively. Vasquez was a great addition, but not at that price. THIS was a reactionary move; Steinbrenner needed another arm to throw at Boston.

Paul Quantrill to the Yankees. Kinda came in under the radar between Sheffield and Vasquez, but this could be a huge addition for the Bombers. The Yankees still have one of the most dominating closers in the game. Problem last year was that they didn't have anyone to get him the ball. The starters were old and couldn't go 7-8 innings consistently anymore, and the middle relief was just plain bad. Mariano Rivera still got his 40 saves, but how many times did he have to throw more than 1 inning? Quantrill threw 77.1 innings over 89 games last year. That's obscene for a middle relief guy. He's a solid pitcher that knows how to pitch in the AL (Former card carrying member of Red Sox Nation). He had 44 K's to 15 walks. Not bad for a guy who usually faced only 1 or 2 batters a game. And that 1.75 ERA wasn't too shabby either. He's going to see alot of work in the Bronx, because....

Winner so far: Boston. No doubt. And I'm not playing favorites here, one Curt Schilling outweighs one Javier Vasquez. The Yankees major need this offseason is starting pitching. Even with Vasquez, their rotation goes a little like: Mike Mussina (solid), Vasquez (very good), Jose Contreras (struggled as a starter), Jeff Weaver (yikes!), Jon Lieber (hasn't pitched in 2 years after elbow surgery). Not going to get it done. If they can get Pettite back, then maybe they'll stay ahead of the Sox, who now have the 2 best pitchers, inning for inning, in the AL.

Predictions: Here's where I see the other big free agents going (all subject to change if the A-Rod deal goes down).

Kevin Millwood: Atlanta, NY(AL), Seattle, NY(NL), Boston. All of them need more pitching, all of them have money to spend.

Greg Maddux: Atlanta, San Diego, Boston. I don't think Maddux would come to Boston, but it'd be fun to throw out a rotation of Pedro, Schilling, Maddux. The Sox, with that rotation and their offense, would be like the greatest roto team of all time.

Andy Pettite: NY(AL), Houston, Boston, Texas. Boston is only a player for any of these guys if the A-Rod deal doesn't happen. Texas is only a player if it does happen.

Keith Foulke: Oakland, Boston. Not much interest outside of these two. He's a solid reliever, but he does occasionally have a bump in the road for about a week or so.

Bartolo Colon: Chicago(AL), NY(AL), Boston, Seattle. He's not an NL type pitcher. Hell, I could outrun him. Which brings me to...

David Wells: NY(AL), Chicago(AL), Boston, Oakland. Same reasons as above, but Oakland might like his numbers in Billy Beane's system. Besides, they just gave up Ted Lilly, so they need another #4 lefty.

Vlad Guerrero: Montreal, Atlanta, Seattle, NY(AL), Chicago(NL). Can you imagine having Ichiro, Mike Cameron, and Vlad in the same outfield? Ouch. That's like having a permanent "No Doubles" outfield. I think he either stays in Montreal or goes to another NL team. Wrigley would be a nice fit, on the Waveland side of the field.

Miguel Tejada: Oakland, NY(NL), Atlanta, San Diego, Chicago (AL/NL). Wow, this guy picked a real bad year to have a down season. He probably won't get nearly what he's worth, which is why he might stay in Oakland if the price goes down enough. But every other team on this list either need a SS or has one that can move to 2B. Seriously, can you imagine the Cubs starting Alex Gonzalez after what happened in the NLCS?

Javy Lopez: Baltimore, Altlanta. No one else seems interested in the guy. Amazing. He has a career year, and there's only two takers?

Ivan Rodriguez: Florida. Same deal. Pudge is probably the best overall catcher EVER (look at the numbers), and yet in a free agent year, after leading his team to the World Series title, he only has one team interested?

I don't think that the Sox or Yankees is done yet for the offseason, but the question is still the same: Who gets the best of what's around?

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FOOTBALL!

Had a sollid 11-5 weeks last week to help the old overall record inch back over .500 to 38-34-3. And I realized why I haven't had a push in 3 weeks now. I've been using the Pigskin Pick-'Em game on ESPN.com to get my lines, and all of their lies have half points so that there are no pushes. Yes, I realize I'm a tool.

TITANS (-2.5) over Colts: So let me get this straight, Jeff Fisher brings in a gimpy Steve McNair to play a game against a last place team that is considered a must win. Steve McNair and the Titans do not win this "must win" game, and now McNair is still pretty gimpy in a ABSOLUTE MUST WIN. I'll still take the Titans until Peyton Manning proves he can win a big game. Heh heh heh, four downs from the 1 baby.....

Bears (+7.5) over PACKERS: The Bears (gulp) are only 2 games out of first in this division. Hell, the Lions aren't even eliminated yet. The two North divisions, AFC and NFC, are the two worst in football. No question. And 7.5 is way to many points to give to a team that is playing inspired ball right now. I can't even make fun of Kordell, no matter how much I want to.

SAINTS (-1.5) over Bucs: The Bucs aren't officially eliminated yet either, but I think it's pretty safe to say that they're done. They're playing just to finish out the season and collect their paychecks. It's kind of sad watching them stumble through the year. I mean, Jacksonville?!? Not an easy loss to swallow. The Saints, meanwhile, are actually playing well and making a quiet push for the wild card. And, of course, I traded Deuce MacAllister off of my fantasy team midway through his 100+ rushing yards per game streak. DAMNIT!

Seahawks (+1.5) over VIKINGS: The Vikings are just looking for ways to lose games, and the Seqhawks should be happy to oblige. Granted, the Browns aren't exactly Super Bowl contenders, so it's a game they were expected to dominate. But the Vikings could certainly see the Rams in the playoffs, and if last week is an indicator of how that game could play out, ugh.

Texans (+5.5) over JAGUARS: Yes, I know that the Jags beat the Bucs last week. So have 6 other teams. The Texans, on the other hand, look like serious playoff contenders, next year. They're 5-7, which is pretty good for a 2nd year expansion team. But they've got two gimpy QB's, which can explain the spread. Even so, Domanick Davis should be able to tear apart the Jags D-Line.

Redskins (+2.5) over GIANTS: Here is this weeks battel of Coaches Playing For Their Resumes. Jim Fassel is gone the day after the season ends. Steve Spurrier is on an extremely short leash, and might just quit to go back to college and win more titles. And considering that there will probably be a few inches of snow on the turk at The Meadowlands, expect running to be big. If Tiki can't hold onto a dry ball, what makes anyone think he'll have a better grip on a wet or frozen one?

EAGLES (-5.5) over Cowboys: Philly has been amazing after being embarrased early this season. I realize that Coach of the Year is really betweek Belichick, Vermiel, Parcells and Lewis, but can't we throw in Andy Reid? Donovan McNabb hasn't been outstanding this year, they've had a RB by committee, and they still lead their division? Wow. Dallas will get the wild card, but not the division and not this game.

Raiders (+5.5) over STEELERS: I must be the stupidest sports fan in whole damned country, but I think the Raiders have one more win in them. It's going to be ugly, both on the field and on the sidelines. But 5.5 is a lot of points, and the Steelers aren't that good of a team.

Chargers (+2.5) over LIONS: The Chargers are already eliminated. The Lions probably will be if they lose this game. Therefore, the Lions are playing for their lives, and the Chargers are playing for pride. The game is in Detriot, but it's indoors. If it were outside, I'd take the Lions -30. But indoors the weather isn't a factor, which give the Chargers a huge advantage. Plus one of the best young RB's in the game. I thank San Diego takes this one outright.

RAVENS (-3.5) over Bengals: So I'm not sold on the Cincy bandwagon yet. They're doing what everyone else in the past five years except the Bucs has done. Take a mediocre defense, a little offensive firepower, and a last place schedule and voila, they're suddenly a playoff contender. Nope. I'll admit, the Bengals look good, and more importantly they look like they're having fun. But the Ravens D should be able to handle Kitna and the Krew.

49ERS (-9.5) over Cardinals: If it wasn't the Cardinals, that 9.5 would be obscene. But since it is Arizona... 'Nuff Said.

Chiefs (+1.5) over BRONCOS: Listen people, it's cold in Kansas City in the winter too! The Mile-High cold weather shouldnt' make a difference in this game. The Mile-High air might, but everyone breathes the same air. The Cheifs are still the best team in football (11-1, hello?!). They shouldn't be an underdog until they play either New England or Tennessee in the AFC Title game. Which brings me to...

PATRIOTS (-3.5) over Dolphins: There's going to be between 6 and 12 inches of snow on the ground for this game. Maybe we should go get a snow plow... In all seriousness, it's December, which means the Dolphins are required to wither and fall. Not a knock on their physical abilities, but their mental. It's like how it took the Bucs 20+ years to win a game in sub-40 degree temperatures, the Dolphins are starting to believe that they can't win in December.

Jets (+2.5) over BILLS: Another game where weather would be a factor if both teams weren't used to it. The Bills just look bad, even after stomping the Giants last week. In fact, I had a lot of fun writing that paragraph about the Bills/Giants last week, simply because I have a lot of Giants' fan friends. Anyway, the Jets look very good. If Penington doesn't break his wrist in the Preseason, they're probably right on top of the AFC East with the Pats. Too bad.

Carolina (-1.5) over ATLANTA: This is the only Sunday game where the home team isn't the favorite. Stunning. I almost picked up Mike Vick for this game in my fantasy league then I decided to take Jake Delhomme against an abyssmal Falcons secondary. Let's hope I was right. The last thing I want to see is Vick running for 100 and throwing for 250.

Rams (-4.5) over BROWNS: Well, at least the Browns are consistent now, consistently bad. I actually met a guy from my hometown in Massachusetts that is a Browns season ticket holder. Told me he and the family drive out to Cleveland for every home game. Something tells me he might have sold most of his tix this season.

Finally, I'm going to start doing something a little different at teh end of every column. I'm going to tell you what is in my CD player for the week. Every week I write a column with a diferent album or mixed singles playing, and I'm sure that the music probably affects my mood and my writing.

This week: Linkin Park "ReAnimation".


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