The best seat in the house is the view from the couch

Back from Sin City, and what have I learned? Hmmm......

• Always hit on 12 with a 2 showing. Not quite sure why, but it seems to work.
• The trend is your friend. Learned that little tidbit from a roulette dealer who tried to understand why I kept betting against the color streak on the board. Told her it was an old system a friend of mine used to employ. Didn't work.
• Free drinks are godly, but not when you're trying to add up the cards in front of you in blackjack. Learned that the hard way after hitting on 13 with a 4 in front of the dealer. Got a 9 and was pretty happy, until I realized I didn't have 12 to start with and I had just lost $40. Damn lack of math skills.
• Pacific Standard Time (PST) is the greatest invention ever. I love to wake up at 9:45AM and realize that football about to start. Which leads me to...

The most important thing I learned while vacationing in Las Vegas...

• If you write a weekly column and use that space to predict football winners, you should probably put money on all of the games, not just a few. I lost every bet I made this week. Oops.

With that being said, I didn't do very well at all last week, especially in games I put money on. I went 5-8-1 last week. Damn those half points in OT. But at least I picked the two biggest surprises right, Chargers and Falcons. Last week, I actually laid dollars on the Colts, Ravens and Cardinals. Ugh. For the season, or at least the last 2 weeks, which is when I started picking games, I'm 13-11-3. Hey, I'm ahead, and in gambling, as long as you don't lose, you've won. Read that again, it'll make more sense the second time, especially when you see that all important 3 in my overall record.

So, how do we stand for this week's games? To be honest, I've only gotten to look at the games and spreads a little, so I'm not sure how accurate I'll be. Lets put it this way, I'm not actually betting this week. Not for lack of confidence, but because I'm out of money. Also, before we start, is anyone actually reading this? More importantly, is anyone actually using my advice in their own sporting lives? Just wondering if this matters to anyone but me. I know a few of you read this every week, because we've talked about it. But for the rest of you... is there anybody out there?

OK, OK. To the picks. This is a tough week, a lot of big point spreads. Let's see how my rule holds up...

Texans (+7) over BILLS: Houston really isn't as bad as everyone thinks that a second-year franchise should be. Buffalo really is as bad as everyone says they are. Throw in Drew Bledsoe and his "I still get to keep that Super Bowl ring" expression everytime he gets helped up off the turf, and I can't see the Bills covering here. Just not happening. Plus, Domanick Davis against this rushing defense? C'mon people, this really isn't rocket science.

EAGLES (-3.5) over Giants: I met a real nice Giants fan (I know, oxymoron) in Vegas at a table I was playing. He said something to me that just makes sense. The Giants just don't look right this year. Any team that can storm into Minnesota and beat one of the 2 remaining undefeated teams, then lose to ATLANTA?!? And a Vick-less ATLANTA?!?!? The Giants have absolutely no identity this year. They're not the hard-nosed smashmouth team of the 80's and early 90's. Their coach looks like he's going to implode any day. Their offense is led by a QB who just a few years ago had "lost the desire to play football", and now they have to go into Philly, the city with the toughest fans, hands down. This game is for NFC East supremacy, and the Giants don't have it this year. Theyll make a run at the wild-card, but not the division. Plus, Donovan will break out of his slump.

Cardinals (+6.5) over BROWNS: Yeah, I know the rule. And I'm sticking to it, even though it was only 2-2 last week. The Cardinals are suddenly not the worst team in football, that honor goes to Oakland. The Browns run defense couldn't stop Steven Hawking at this point, let alone Marcel Shipp. I realize Priest didn't exactly have stellar "Priest-like" numbers last week against Cleveland (92 rushing, 66 Receiving, 2 TD, and that's NOT-stellar...), but this is still the same Cleveland defense that let Jamal Lewis break the single-game rushing recotrd AFTER HE TOLD THEM HE WAS GOING TO DO IT! Butch Davis has to be feeling a little pressure here. On the other hand, Dave McGinnis has 3 wins for the Cardinals, and since no one would have been surprised if they were winless this year, that's pretty impressive. Look for them to get #4 this week.

BENGALS (+7) over Chiefs: Two things come into play here. 1) The 6 pt. rule. 2) The Bengals are a decent team. They're not making a playoff run anytime soon, but they're decent. I don't think that they'll win the game, but I certainly think they can cover that 7 points. Although, I thought the same thing about the Browns against the Chiefs last week... oops. The Chiefs are the real deal. Don Shula, Larry Czonka, and the rest of the '72 'Phins are going to have that champagne on ice for awhile. I truly think that the Chiefs will go undefeated until AT LEAST the Broncos game, and maybe the whole year. Speaking about Coach Shula, I have the distinct honor of attending a dinner with him and Mike Ditka in about two weeks. I know, it's pretty damned cool. And you're probably wondering how I get that opportunity... well, you'll just have to wait for the stories, and pictures. Oh, back to the game. Chiefs win, Bengals cover the points.

Rams (-6.5) over BEARS: Damnit. There's always one game every week that makes me throw out my 6 point rule. If it wasn't the Bears, this wouldn't be it. But c'mon! The Rams over the BEARS?!? This really isn't hard to call. The Rams offense, weak as it was last Sunday, could still roll this Bears team without Bulger OR Faulk. Just throw the ball to Tory Holt and Ike Bruce ALL DAY LONG. The Bears defense is middle of the pack against the run, and a little better against the pass. But numbers aren't always everything. True, they don't allow a lot of yards overall, but they allow big plays all day long, and as we all know, one big play can turn momentum on it's heels. Take the Rams, leave the points.

PANTHERS (-6.5) over Redskins: This is another tough one to call. If Steve Spurrier has fun with his offense, the Skins might surprise a lot of people. But He doesn't have the talent to just go wild all the time. Patrick Ramsey, though untouched last week (yes, you read that right), might not make it the whole season if they don't consistently stop the rush and establish a running game. Trung Candidate/Rock Cartwright/Ladell Betts are not going to get it done. Which brings me to the story of the game, "The One That Got Away: The Stephen Davis Story". Wow. That was just a colos-ss-sal mistake by Spurrier and owner Dan Snyder (note the extra S's). Stephen Davis is going to absolutely torch the Skins any way he can. If they shut down the run, he'll catch passes. If they stop him coming out of the backfield, he'll return kicks. If they stuff him on special teams, he'll play safety. No matter what it takes, he'll do his best to kill them. Screw the rule, Panthers cover.

TITANS (-10.5) over Jaguars: Wow, sometimes the gambling gods really do like me. 10.5 points?! I know the Titans are the best team in the NFL right now (their defense can and eventualyl will stop the Chiefs) Defenses will be the key to this game. These two teams are in the bottom 10 in passing yda allowed (Titans #31, Jags #23), but they are two of the best against teh run (TEN - #1, JAX - #6). So since both teams should be able to pass at will, who needs their running game more...? Titans win big. Plus, remember my philosophy about not betting against future NFL MVP's, especially not at home? Yeah, thought so.

Ravens (+5.5) over DOLPHINS: Last Sunday's games were absolutely travesties for these two teams. The Ravens aren't going to beat ANYONE turning the ball over 428 times a game. At least I knew the Dolphins weren't going to get it done against the Titans. So why take the Ravens here? Two words: BRIAN GRIESE. To anyone who might be in southern Florida that doesn't already know this, he sucks. Absolutely, unequivocally, sucks. Ray Lewis should rack up about 3 sacks, and maybe even a pick. The Dolphins defense, like the Titans and Jags, is great against the run (#2) and lousy against the (#26). The Ravens (as if this surprised anyone) are #2 against the pass and #8 against the run. Ricky WIlliams has not looked good the last few weeks, and even though the Ravens are relying on a new starter (Anthony Williams?), I still think the Ravens will at least cover, if not win outright.

Falcons (+8.5) over SAINTS: Let's not get carried away here folks. The Saints aren't suddenly Super Bowl contenders just because they get to play the Falcons again. Atlanta looked good last week against the G'ints, and they've gott feel rejuvenated with news of Mike Vick practicing this week. They'll take the points and so would I. Here's the scary thing. The Falcons aren't eliminated yet. Just suppose that they keep getting these 7 points or bigger in spreads. They can surprise a lot of people. Right now, Atlanta is 2-7, division leader Carolina is 7-2. Even though they look good, Carolina could certainly tank the rest of the season (remember last year). The Bucs don't have it, period. New Orleans, well, they're New Orleans. If the Falcons can hold on this week and beat the Saints, they tie the Bucs in division record, and they get even closer to the top. If Vick is back next week or two, they're got a legit shot. Right now, they're 5 back with 7 to play. It's a long shot, but still...

Jets (+6.5) over COLTS: Wow. Four weeks ago I had Indy in the Bowl, taking out KC and Tennessee on the way. Now...? They can play D anymore. What teh hell happened against, uh, THE JAGUARS? The last time the won by more than 1 score was 3 weeks ago, against teh Texans. And they still allowed 21 in that game. They've allowed 21, 17, and 28 in their last three games against Houston (win), Miami (win), and Jacksonville (loss). Now those aren't exactly offensive powerhouses this year, are they? That being said, the Jets are, gulp, good? Again, let's not go nuts, they are 3-6. But they're only 2 games out of the wild card to Denver. All that being said, I took the Colts -6.5 last week, and they burned me. Not again.

Chargers (+8) over BRONCOS: Flutie!, Flutie!, Flutie!... actually, more appropriately, Kanell, Kanell, Kanell... 'Nuff said.

BUCS (-4) over Packers: For as bad as the Bucs looked the first time against Carolina, they looked 10x better this go 'round. And still lost. Yet somehow, I don't think that it'll be too hard for them to cover against the Packers. In fact, I'm making this my "Game of the week". Yeah, um, whatever that means. All kidding aside, Ahman Green has got to protect the football better, or else he's going to have a short career, no matter how many yards he racks up. I don't care if this guy runs for 3000 yds in a season, if he has 2+ fumbles a game, the yards just don't matter. Bucs win, Brad Johnson, the single most underrated QB now that Stev McNair is the MVP, will have a good game, as usual. Anybody else realize that this guy has 2300+ yds, 18 TDs and only 9 INTs? Didn't think so.

Lions (+10.5) over SEAHAWKS: I just really don't know how Seattle is still tied for first in their division. They can't run consistently. Matt Hasselbeck has a rating of 85.1, which is actually pretty impressive considering he has virtually no receiving corps - leading receiver is Darrell Jackson with 34 catches for 604 yds? These guys need Koren Robinson to break out of this season-long slump in the worst way. They're not going to cover against a Lions team coached by a man trying to prove he still has it. The Seahaws need help, fast. They need a consistent Shaun Alexander, they need a more efficient Matt Hasselbeck, but they need some receivers. Why did they let Joey Galloway go again?

Vikings (-5) over RAIDERS: 11 Weeks ago this looked like a laugher. Still does, just the other way around. The Raiders are short one reigning NFL MVP, and are also one year older. The Vikings defense is looking like a seive at this point, after 3 straight losses allowing 29, 30, and 42 points to the Giants, Packers and CHARGERS? Wow. Well, don't worry, not even a Rick Mirer Noter Dame Hail Mary could pull the Raiders through this one, and you have no idea how happy it makes me to say that. I do feel bad for Jerry Rice and Tim Brown, but hey, it had to end sometime.

PATRIOTS (-4.5) over Cowboys: As a very wise man once said, "When Vegas gives a 4.5 point spread, they have no idea what going to happen either." So here's what I see happening. Bill Parcells and Bill Belichick match wits for three and a half quarters to a 13-13 tie, with both TDs coming on defense or special teams. Then, midway through the fourth, Belichick decides to bring in Drew Bledsoe, fresh off his latest 4 INT 16 Sack performance against the Texans, and has him stand on the Cowboys sideline. Parcells' blond hair dye finally seeps into his brain, and for some reason he pulls Carter for Bledsoe. Drew promptly gets nailed and coughs up the ball, leading to a Patriots possesion and yet another 4th quarter game-winnig drive for Tom Brady in relief of Drew Bledsoe, Pats win 20-13. OK, so maybe it doesn't happen that way, but the Pats win and cover. No way Parcells goes 3-0 against former teams, not in Prime Time, in Foxboro, against fans that love and hate him all at once.

49ERS (-4) over Steelers: Would someone please remind Bill Cowher that Jerome Bettis is roughly 127 years old and needs a cane to get around his house in the offseason? It's just not funny anymore. The Steelers are 3-6 (which stunningly puts them in a tie for 3rd in their division, 2 games back. I love realignment and "parity"). Amos Zeroue needs to start. Jerome Bettis is a great back who has had a great run, but it's time. Tommy Maddox is a mediocre quarterback who had almost as improbable a run as Kurt Warner, but it's time. Play out the season, draft a real QB, get some offensive line help and some secondary help. Until then, take your medicine and play the hand you're dealt. You have one of the best receiving trios in the game, in the top three with Dallas (Glenn/Galloway/Bryant) and St. Louis (Holt/Bruce/anyone else). Just throw jump balls if you have to, your guys will get it. Especially against the Niners secondary. But we all know Bill Cowher is going to try to stuff Bettis downthe Niners throats, and for that reason, Niners win big and cover. I'll even call a score: 28-16.

So, a recap: Texans / EAGLES / Cardinals / BENGALS / Rams / PANTHERS / TITANS / Ravens / Falcons / Jets / Chargers / BUCS / Lions / Vikings / PATS / 49ERS

posted by Big D @ 12:00 AM