The best seat in the house is the view from the couch

Alright, back to the real posts. Let's get serious about football. I realize that I started to talk football in the last post, but by the end of it I was pretty tired and out of witty euphemisms (hope that's spelled right).

I've also been contacted by my loyal reader and told that I need to back up thoughts with facts. So I'll do my best here. I'm also going to talk a little fantasy, but mostly gambling. You see, this weekend I return to Las Vegas for the 2nd time in 4 months, so my mind is full of dollar signs and point spreads right now.

For the record, I was 8-3-2 with the spread last week (I'm not counting the Pit/SEA game because I made a pick based on a coaching move that didn't happen. Won't make that mistake again). I'd say that's a pretty good record for my first week of handicapping "on the record". So, away we go... (Home team in caps, as always)

Falcons vs. GIANTS (-10.5): No, that 10.5 isn't a misprint. The Vick-less Falcons really are that bad. That being said, my general rule is never give more than 5.5, because 1 TD throws it all off. And I know that using my logic, giving more than 2.5 is a problem because 1 FG throws it off, but it's my plan and I hate math, so let's leave it at 5.5. So I guess what I'm saying here is that the Falcons really are that bad, but c'mon, 10.5 points? You gotta think that if the Giants get up by more than that (and I'm sure they will at some point) that they will kinda back off alittle so as not to run up the score, and the Falcons will probably get a garbage score late in the game. Take Atlanta and the points.

Seahawks (-3.5) vs. REDSKINS: I'd like to think that Steve Spurrier has enough left in his book of magic to pull this one out, but did anyone see his face during last's week's schelacking against Dallas? And do we give Patrick Ramsey the NFL Tough Guy award right now? Do you think he had any say in whether or not he'd get to start this week, or did he just show up and look at the depth chart, then run to get extra pads. Anyway, the Seahawks take this one. Shaun Alexander should have a nice game too, I mean, the 'Skins D made Troy Hambrick a fantasy stud last week. And I'm quite proud of myself for nailing the 'Skins blowing an important kick last week. Brought a smile to my face, even though I don't really like the Cowboys.

Cardinals vs. STEELERS (-7.5): Once again, a spread over 6. Amazing as it is, the Cards are on a winning streak, albeit only 2 games. But has anyone noticed that the Steelers are quietly in last place in the AFC North? Yes, that's the same division as the Bengals. I don't think any coach is on the hot seat as much as Bill Cowher, not Spurrier, not Bill Callahan, not Marty Schottenheimer (but he's close). And give credit to Arizona coach Dave McGinnis for letting Marcel Shipp show his talent. The boy can flat out run. Watching him in the red uni's reminds me of Forrest Gump at Alabama... Um, just take the Cards.

Bears vs. LIONS (-2): Well, that certainly was an impressive showing vs. the Raiders last week, wasn't it? Sure glad I called that one right (sounding my own horn.... and we're done.) Let's see if the Lions can stop a team with an actual running game, not Charlie "He's still playing?" Garner. Is anyone else as inconsistent as him? Shaun Alexander has that whole "Any given Sunday, I could run for 200 and 5TDs or 20 an 3 fumbles" vibe, but Garner doesn't even offer that much hope. So what I'm trying to say is look for A-Train to have a nice day as the Bears take this one.

Texans vs. BENGALS (-5): Phew, glad it's not -6. The Bengals actually look pretty good right now, though that stumble against the Cards wasn't too fun to watch. I'd like to get a line on Bengals total wins vs. Corey Dillon trade demands though, might make some nice money there. Personally, I'll take the Bengals. Cincy isn't exactly the most inviting city this time of year, weather-wise. So figure a team from Texas isn't going to be ready for it, especially a Texas team playing home games in a dome. That, and David Carr might not be back in time. I can't tell you how many times I cursed Tony Banks last week, and how many times I absolutely exploded at Steve Smith. Ass.

Dolphins vs. TITANS (-5): Wow. Game of the Week! Seriously, what a game this is going to be. I'm not even sure how to handicap this one. Personally, I don't think either team will have a 5 point lead at any time during the first 3 quarters, but it's the 4th that matters and I've learned NEVER to bet against future League MVP's (read: Steve McNair). Take Tennessee, but don't watch the game, it's going to go back and forth all day and the stress will kill you.

Colts (-6.5) vs. JAGUARS: OK, I have to break my own rule. Take Indy. Yeah, 6.5 is a lot to give, but c'mon, it's the Jags. Plus, I just traded for Marvin Harrison in a fantasy league, so look for Peyton Manning to throw 16 TD's, all to receivers not named Harrison. Seriously though, The Colts' offense is just too damned good for a team like Jacksonville to stop, and Indy's defense is finally looking like a Tony Dungy coached team. I wouldn't be surprised to see a shutout here. The Jags are too young and inexperienced.

Browns vs. CHIEFS (-10): Just too much. Classic trap game. The Chiefs are probably still riding high off their last game, 2 weeks ago in a laugher over Buffalo (28-5 at the half? Are you kidding me?!) But next week they get the Bengals, who could cause problems spreading the field then stuffing Corey Dillon down the defensive line's collective throat. As for the Browns, this week's QB-du-jour is Kelly Holcomb. Maybe they could sign Danny Wuerffel just to get one more rider on the carousel. Personally, I say start Couch on the road and Holcomb at home. Couch's home record is lousy over the last 2 years, ever since the home crowd started booing him and cheering his injuries. I wouldn't want to play in front of that, and I would kill for a shot with an NFL team. Still, 10 points is too much. Browns cover.

Vikings (-6) vs. CHARGERS: Ugh. I hate to say this, but the Chargers are going to cover this spread, and I think they're going to win outright. The Vikings have lost 2 straight, their owner is pissed, their QB just remembered that he's contractually obligated to turn the ball over 4 times a game, minumum, and now they're playing a team with nothing to lose? The Chargers aren't going to the playoffs, why not just play for pride from here on out? The Vikings are pressing to hold onto their lead in the NFC North. Chargers "shock the world", just like every other underdog for the last 5 years. Take the points.

Bills vs. COWBOYS (-4): Ever look at a game and just think "Wow, I can't tell what the hell is gonna happen here"? Well, here's my dilema. The Cowboys have the best 3-man receiveing corps in football. The Bills have the 3rd best passing defense in the NFL, the Cowboys are #1. Guess which 2 QB's I have on my fantasy team. The Bills can always just rely heavily on Travis Henry, he's a good enough back to provide the passing game some relief. And Bledsoe is a much better QB than Carter. But I think that Dallas will cover this game. The Bills are coming off the bye, and I'd be willing to bet that they still can't find a way to stop Bill Parcells and his band of merry men. Plus, who knows how to stop Bledsoe better than the man that drafted him #1 overall 10 years ago?

Jets (-3.5) vs. RAIDERS: RE-MATCH! Yeah, well, almost. Last time they met there was a little more on the line than fighting for last place in their respective divisions. Neither of these teams really has to worry about the playoffs, so I think that both of them play with heart and for pride. Of course, the Jets will be fielding better quality players at the skill positions (Pennington and Martin vs. Garner and, gulp!, Rick Mirer?!) Look for a rejuvenated Jets team now that Pennington has had a little more time to learn the offense. Jets win and cover.

Ravens vs. RAMS (-7): Could you lower that number just a little? Like 1.5 points or so? I really want to take the Rams here, Faulk's back, they're back at home, and Torry Holt is a monster this year - 978 yds. and 9 TDs after only 8 games? Wow. But the Ravens are playing damn well this year, and once again they're relying on a big, strong RB and their rock-solid defense to get them through, only this year it is Jamal Lewis instead of Priest Holmes back in 2000. This game will be a real test for them and their young secondary, but I think they'll pass. Take Baltimore and the points.

Eagles vs. PACKERS (-4.5): No love for the Eagles, even after a 4 game winning streak? C'mon people, the Pack aren't that good, and the Lambeau mystique was melted away last year by Superman in the playoffs. Brett Favre still has a broken thumb, although he ddn't look too shabby against the Vikings, what a cannon that man has. I don't think the Pack will cover here, especially if the Vikings lose and they realize that they can't lose ground in the NFC North. Look for whatever runningback starts for Philly to have a good game, the Pack's run defense looked pretty shakey versus Minnesota.

So, to recap: Falcons / Seahawks / Cardinals / Bears / BENGALS / TITANS / Colts / Browns / CHARGERS / COWBOYS / Jets / Ravens / Eagles

But for now, it's Vegas baby, Vegas.

posted by Big D @ 12:00 AM