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Week 8 Rants & Ranks

Listen guys, I could spend two hours and 10,000 words espousing the virtues of the 2007 Red Sox. I could go on and on about how the best team won, and how it's a dynasty, and blah blah blah. But I won't. I'll leave that to the rest of the Internet. Just know that A) I've had a smile on my face for three days straight, no matter what else arrises in my life, B) My buddy Tim now has a reason to go back to Vegas (not like he ever needs one), since he put $50 on the Sox at the Mirage Sportsbook (Ironically, the day of the Patriots' collapse in the AFC Title Game) to win it all back in January, and C) Although I neglected to put it in print back in March, I did post it at the beginning of the playoffs. As far as the Sox winning the series... Ahem - "Called It."

Let's move into the Rants & Ranks for Week 8.


1. New England (8-0): Sticking by what I wrote last week - the hype is completely out of control for this week's Pats/Colts matchup. Here's an astounding thought - if the Patriots can pull this win out and the Bills fall at home to the Bengals... The Pats will have a 6-game division lead with eight games to play. They could clinch in Week 11! How ridiculous is that?

2. Indianapolis (7-0): Listen - I have the utmost respect for these Colts. They are still the champions until someone knocks them out. But the only way they're winning this game is if A) The Patriots suffer a run of catastrophic injuries, B) The patriots get caught looking ahead to next week's bye, or C) The Patriots' plane crashes on the way into Indy. Which kind of falls under "A".

3. Dallas (6-1): Wow - that death-grip on the NFC East that they had a couple weeks ago suddenly isn't as strong. They're 1/2 game up on the idle Giants, and have to deal with an Eagles team coming off a very good road win.

4. Green Bay (6-1): I passed out Monday Night well before the 4th quarter even ended, let alone before that overtime win. So I wasn't nearly as shocked as I should have been when I found Greg Jennings floating around on waivers in one of my fantasy leagues. To whoever dropped him in the blogger's league... uh... thanks!

5. Detroit (5-2): Sure the Giants have a better record at 6-2, but they barely beat the 0-8 Dolphins last week. The Lions went into Soldier Field and decimated the Bears. That get's a big tip of the cap in my book.


Others receiving votes: Pittsburgh (The division will be locked up by week 10), NY Giants (6-2 is 6-2... even if it's an ugly #6), Jacksonville (big win with absolutely nothing from the offense).


5. Oakland (2-5): God I want to put the Bengals or Niners here, but I still can't bring myself to do it. The Raiders are worse, but not by much.

4. NY Jets (1-7): Ladies and Gentlemen, welcome to the Kellen Clemens era. Let's see if he can go 4-4 to finish the season - that oughtta solidify the starter's job for him in '08.

3. Atlanta (1-6): Byron Leftwich is walking without crutches, and could be back under center in two weeks. Is that a good thing or a bad thing?

2. Miami (0-8): I'll give Miami credit - with the exception of the Patriots' juggernaut, they've kept just about every score close, or at least close enough to make gamblers some money. They still havne't won, but at least they're competetive.

1. St. Louis (0-8): SJax is back out, the offensive line couldn't stop a High School pass rush, and the defense has given up the second most amount of points in the league (just ahead of Miami). Is it fair to say that they're on the clock right now?


Others receiving votes: Bengals (Guh...), 49ers (Just awful all around right now), Vikings (how much do they offer for the Rams #1 overall pick to get a real QB? Their 1st, 3rd and 4th?)

That's it for now. Could be big news in the life of Big D coming up soon, but for now, I'm just planning to be back here Friday afternoon/night with the Week 9 picks.

Labels: 2007, NFL, Playoffs here we come, Rants and Ranks, Recap

posted by Big D @ 9:54 AM 2 comments

2007 NFL Picks - Week 8

Way to completely slack off there D. I've ignored everything not related to work, sleep, and the World Series since about Sunday night/Monday morning. That includes this blog, and my weekly rants/ranks post that was supposed to be written and put up here Tuesday. Oops. For the record, let's get that out of the way right now, in abridged form:


1. New England (7-0). Duh.
2. Indianapolis (7-0). Duh 2.0
3. Dallas (6-1). Best in the NFC.
4. Green Bay (5-1). A close second, but they need to run better.
5. Ney York Giants (5-2). Can't argue a 5-game winning streak.


5. Atlanta (1-6). At least they kept it close.
4. San Francisco (2-4). Alex Smith returns. Should give them 2 more wins this year.
3. NY Jets (1-6). They've been close in most games. Just not close enough.
2. St. Louis (0-7). Starting QB & RB return Sunday. Rams' fans rejoice by raising expectations to 2 wins in '07.
1. Miami (0-7). No such luck in Miami. Starting QB & RB done for year. #1 WR traded away. #1 overall draft pick soon to follow.

And, after that little diversion, let's take a shot at the Week 8 lines. 7-6-1 in Week 7 (Holy crap - a winning week?) to raise the overall numbers up a tick to 42-52-9. As always, home teams in CAPS, and lines from Bodog.com (via ESPN's Daily Line), and accurate as of 10:30am.

RAMS (+3) over Browns: I think that if the coaches say Steven Jackson is playing this game, then he's obviously as close to 100% as he's going to get. They wouldn't risk him in a lost season otherwise. I can see him shredding that Cleveland D for a big game.

DOLPHINS (+10) over Giants: I just don't know how oddsmakers can look at this game, look at the traevl to London, the jet lag, all the unknown factors, and still make it a 10-point line. I know Miami's bad, but they can't possibly be that bad, can they?

Eagles (-1) over VIKINGS: Donovan McNabb is due for a huge game. Think something along the lines of the Detroit debacle a few weeks back - Minnesota's pass defense is actually worse than the Lions... and everybody else for that matter. They rank 32 of 32 teams.

Colts (-7) over PANTHERS: Peyton Manning has never beaten the Panthers. Ever. Hard to believe, I know. Of course, there was a time when Manning had never beaten the Belichick/Brady Patriots either. Speaking of which...

PATRIOTS (-17) over Redskins: By the time the Pats travel to Indy next week (on my birthday, no less!) the hype for this game will have taken on Bill Brasky proportions. "I once saw Tom Brady and Peyton Manning combine for 247 touchdown passes... in the first quarter! Hand to God... To Brady & Manning!"

BEARS (-5) over Lions: I don't know about any of you, but I'm riding Brian Griese's right shoulder as long as it will hold up. Considering he's got the Lions in Chicago this week, I'm feeling pretty good about my decision. Could the Bears somehow sneak back into Wild Card contention?

Steelers (-4) over BENGALS: With all the hype around the bengals' team chemistry (or lack thereof), they're either primed to step up big and crush a division opponent, or roll over and give the critics more fodder. Either way, the Steelers are still pissed about blowing that game in Denver last Sunday, and I can't blame them. That was a bad loss.

Raiders (+7.5) over TITANS: The Raiders just keep every game close, and the Titans might be without Vince Young again. Think they can kick 10 field goals this week? That might be what it takes. (By the way - for all the hype about Minnesota, New England, Baltimore & Chicago's defenses... Tennessee has the best rushing defense in the league right now. Too bad they can't stay off the field with that offense)

BUCS (-3.5) over Jaguars: Bodog has actually pulled this line, but every other major site has it a -3.5 for TB. With the Jaguars QB situation as bad as it is right now, the Bucs' defense should be able to stack the line and force Jacksonville to beat them through the air. Anyone who saw the Jax/Indy game last week knows that with the current crop of backup QB's in Jacksonville, that's just not a winning proposition.

Bills (+3) over JETS: Unless Clemens starts. Then I'll consider taking the Jets here. It's too bad - Pennington just never fully healed from those shoulder injuries. Not that he had the greatest arm before he got hurt, but still...

CHARGERS (-10) over Texans: Sentimental pick. If it's in San Diego, it's not even close. If it's somewhere else (Arizona, LA, or even... Vegas?) it's much close than people think.

49ERS (+3) over Saints: With Alex Smith back and Frank Gore healthy, the Niners should be able to do at least some damage on offense through the porous New Orleans defense. The only question left is whether the Niners defense can keep the Saints' offense in check long enough to keep this game close.

Packers (+3) over BRONCOS: This is my measuring stick for AFC/NFC matchups this year. The Broncos are coming off a huge home win over the Steelers last week, while the Packers are coming off a bye. The Packers are a top-2 team inthe NFC, while the Broncos are, at best, 8th in the AFC. Let's see how this plays out before decalring the AFC completley superior to the NFC in every way.

RECAP: RAMS / DOLPHINS / Eagles / Colts / PATRIOTS / BEARS / Steelers / Raiders / BUCS / Bills / CHARGERS / 49ERS / Packers

That's it. Back to the real world.

Lata.

Labels: 2007, Gambling, It's all about the Benjamins, NFL, NFL Picks, Picks

posted by Big D @ 10:34 AM 1 comments

2007 ALCS Wrap-Up

That's the only way it could have ended. Honestly. Nothing is a more perfect ending for this 2007 Red Sox team. The only way these Red Sox know how to win is slamming into a wall at 100 miles per hour, going full out for an "ohmygodhowthehelldidhedothatIdon'tcarewe'regoingtotheWorldFreakingSeries!" type of play, forcing willing themselves to comeback against any type of odds. Down 3-0 in ’04? No problem. 3-1 in ’07? Pfff… been there, done that.

Listen to the loosest player on the team (if that’s even quantifiable with this group of guys), Manny Ramirez in the post-game interview. They never worried about being behind, all they did was play three one-game series.

I can’t believe I didn’t live-blog this game. Mostly because I was too nervous – in my short life as a Red Sox fan, I’ve dealt with both 1986 & 2003. Now I have ’04 & ’07 under my belt too – maybe I can watch the playoffs without a defibrillator handy in the future.

A couple other notes before I go pass out for the night, in the form of text messages sent and received since Game 6:

From my buddy Ronnie, with Eric Gagne heading into the 9^th inning of Game 6 with the Red Sox leading 12-2: “Gee, I’ve never been nervous about a 10-run lead in the 9^th before…”

From me to just about everybody in my contacts list towards the end of Game 7: “Dustin Pedroia could murder a school bus full of elementary school kids and kittens in Boston tonight and he’d still get away with it.”

And my buddy Jay’s response: “Ha – I think you just called the Cleveland Indians a bunch of elementary school kids”

Good point by you.

I need sleep. Back tomorrow or Tuesday.

Lata.

Labels: 2007, ALCS, MLB, Red Sox, World Series

posted by Big D @ 11:58 PM 0 comments

2007 NFL Picks - Week Seven

Well, at least Week 6 was better than Week 5. Of course, that’s kind of like saying that Pol Pot was a better person than Hitler.

Yes, I just referenced two genocidal maniacs in a post about NFL gambling. Judging by the recent readership numbers, I doubt I’ll be pissing off too many people.

I managed to pull out a 4-7-2 week of picks last week, following up my stellar 2-11-1 in Week Five. I’m in rough shape with the overall record (35-46-8), but still managed to pull out some nice, safe teasers last week to limit the damage.

I think I’ll stick to the “safe” bets from now on. They tend to give me fewer heart palpitations.

Here we go for Week Seven. Home teams in CAPS, and lines from bodog.com and accurate as of 5:30pm Friday.

REDSKINS (-8.5) over Cardinals: Tim Rattay, on the road, against a swarming defense. And yet, I have no confidence in the Redskins to cover this line. We’ll start off and call this a nice safe teaser – Redskins down to (-2.5)

SAINTS (-8) over Falcons: Boy did the Saints look good against the Seahawks last week or what? They had a dominating offense and held Seattle in check on the defensive side of the ball. If I had my choice, I’d tease them to (-2) and head to the bank.

BILLS (+3) over Ravens: I hate starting off with three straight home teams (don’t worry – it won’t be four), but I’ve got a feeling that two strong defenses should keep the scoring down in this one. I can see a 10-9 final score possible. Of course, I can see a 42-41 score as well. It’s the NFL – who the hell knows?

Patriots (-17) over DOLPHINS: I can’t remember a time that I’ve ever felt confident about giving 17+ points. As bad as Miami has looked this season, I’d feel a lot better about teasing this one – either way – for six points. This could get ugly, one way or the other.

GIANTS (-9) over 49ers: Two straight patsies for the Giants should help to solidify Tom Coughlin’s job security. At least for now. And a nice blowout home win could do wonders to push the teams’ confidence over the top and give them the push they need for the playoffs.

Bucs (+2.5) over LIONS: I have absolutely no faith in the Lions’ defense right now. More importantly, I believe this Bucs team might be the NFC Dark Horse to push the Cowboys and Packers for the right to lose to the Patriots in the Super Bowl. They’ve got a stable QB, a solid defense, and might finally have some semblance of a running game.

Titans @ Texans: No site is offering a line for this game right now, pending the outcome of Vince Young’s injury. If he’s playing, don’t think there’s anyway the Titans lose – he’s got too much incentive to play well in Houston. If it’s Kerry Collins, I can’t imagine a situation where the Texans lose the game. In other words – screw the line here, bet the money line.

Chiefs (+3) over RAIDERS: Anybody else notice how JaMarcus Russell seems to have fallen off the face of the Earth? Is he still holding out? The Raiders did sign him, right? Yet nobody is clamoring for him to get into the lineup. Interesting…

Jets (+6.5) over BENGALS: In what should be an offensive shootout, I’m taking the points. Even if the team I’m supporting is sending out a QB with a weaker arm than mine. Maybe they’ll just run the ball a lot – either way, Cincy’s defense can’t stop anybody.

COWBOYS (-10) over Vikings: Look out for Tony Romo – not only did he get embarrassed the past two weeks, but the Vikings have the second worst pass defense in the NFL and just allowed 381 yards and 3 TDs to Brian Griese and the Bears. The Cowboys will have to use the pass to setup the run – the Vikes don’t let anyone run the ball.

EAGLES (-6) over Bears: Must-win game for both teams. The Eagles are getting back some key parts of their secondary this week, meaning it could be another long week for the Bears’ offense.

SEAHAWKS (-8.5) over Rams: If the Seahawks can’t cover this line, I don’t see any situation under which I back them again this season. They’d have to be 20-point dogs to San Fran or St. Louis for me to even consider it. Yes, I’m still bitter that Seattle not only didn’t cover the (-6) at New Orleans last week, but didn’t even win outright; thereby blowing up a perfect teaser.

Steelers (-4) over BRONCOS: When was the last time the Broncos were a home underdog, and there wasn’t a single peep out of the Denver area to complain about it? Man the Rockies really have taken over that city. Oh by the way – Denver is without Javon Walker and probably Champ Bailey – in other words, hit the Steelers hard until that line jumps.

Colts (-3.5) over JAGUARS: The only reason I’m taking Indy here is that they are moderately healthy after coming off a bye week. Jacksonville has taken pride the past few seasons in hosting prime-time games against big time opponents and absolutely shutting them down. This could be one hell of a great game to watch, no matter who you’re rooting for (or betting on, as it were).

RECAP: REDSKINS / SAINTS / BILLS / Patriots / GIANTS / Bucs / Titans / Chiefs / Jets / COWBOYS / EAGLES / SEAHAWKS / Steelers / Colts

And, if anybody is interested, the safe teasers are as follows:

REDSKINS down to (-2.5)

Steelers down to (+2)

COWBOYS down to (-4)

Patriots down to (-11) or DOLPHINS up to (+23)

GIANTS down to (-3)

OK, I’m tired. Have a nice weekend, and let’s see if we can have at least a .500 week. I’m not greedy – that’s all I ask for.

Lata.

Labels: 2007, Gambling, It's all about the Benjamins, NFL, NFL Picks, Picks

posted by Big D @ 5:50 PM 0 comments

Week 6 Rants & Ranks

I covered a lot of the outside topics in yesterday's quick morning post, so let's jump right into the ranks...



1. New England (6-0): They're on another planet right now. There's the Patriots... and then everybody else.
2. Indianapolis (5-0): The "Best of the Rest", as it were. That mega-clash on November 4th just got even bigger, now that New England just knocked off the 3rd head of the 3-headed undefeated beast. They've got a good test this week at the Jaguars, then a winnable game at Carolina. Then Armageddon.

2a. Colorado Rockies (21-1): Sorry, needs to be mentioned. I'll agree with Mark Schlereth (who is one of the ESPN NFL analysts I actually enjoy... he and Jaws) and say that the only team that has a chance to knock off either of the two teams atop this list is the Rockies, who seemingly forgot how to lose. Shame they're going to have to wait a week to play another game. Lot of time to sit around and reflect on what they've just accomplished... and get complacent.

3. Pittsburgh (4-1): Fresh off the bye week, they've got only one "loseable" game between now and December 9th @ New England - November 5th against Baltimore. What a weekend that's going to be: Pats @ Colts, Ravens @ Steelers, Dallas @ Philly. Yikes. I might not leave my house for two straight days.
4. Dallas (5-1): Not to say that they were exposed as frauds - they actually had a lead in the second half, something no other Patriots' opponent had done so far this year - it's just that the level of competition was so far above what they could handle that they looked bad in the process. They're still atop the NFC East (though only by one game after the Giants' renaissance), and they still have the best team in the NFC.
5. Jacksonville (4-1): I'll admit - I had no faith in them when they dumped Byron Leftwich. But they've performed well for the first 5 games of the year, almost doubling their opponents' scoring (100-58). And if they can hang tough or even beat the Colts in Jacksonville next week, I'll be very impressed.

Others receiving votes: Green Bay (need to show a better offense to be considered a threat), Tampa Bay (consistent offense, swarming defense... good formula), Kansas City (that's not a misprint... somehow they're atop the AFC West. For now).

Labels: 2007, Best Ever?, I'm awful at this, NFL, Rants and Ranks, Your team is a sham

posted by Big D @ 7:16 AM 0 comments

This deserves it's own post...

After watching the beatdown yesterday that the Patriots handed to the Cowboys, I couldn't help but write something this morning. Let's start with... wow. I mean, wow. Aren't the Cowboys supposed to be one of the "elite" teams in the NFL? And what ever happened to the conventional thinking of "if you can stop the run, you should win the game"?

The Patriots ran for 75 total yards and one TD... and passed for 388 and five TDs en route to a 21-point blowout. If they're not the best team in the NFL in the past ten years, I don't know who is. They're on par with the last 49ers team to win the Super Bowl (1994/95), and the Broncos of '97 - Elway's first title team. Actually, not "on par". They're better. They're dominant on both sides of the ball - even in the defense allowed 21 points to the Cowboys offense (and 6 to the defense on the Brady fumble return).

They're now the highest scoring team in the league with 230, and have only allowed 92-total points through six games (no other team without a bye yet has allowed fewer than 100 - Baltimore).

I seriously can't wait for the last two big games - 11/4 at the Colts and 12/9 home for the Steelers. Armageddon in the RCA Dome, and if they're still undefeated by December, that Steelers game will be mayhem.

A couple other notes:

-- For those of you in the world who love to hate on the long line of Notre Dame QB busts, put a big smile on your faces. Is it just me, or is the Browns' QB situation eerily similar to the Chargers back in '04? Unproven starters looking like huge busts (Derek Anderson / Drew Brees), so the team makes a big draft-day trade to get their "QB of the future" (Phil Rivers / Brady Quinn). QBotF holds out for most of camp, forcing team to go with old formerly unproven starters, only to have a pretty decent run of big wins over bad teams, and steal a couple wins from mid-to-high level teams.

The ’04 Chargers came from relative obscurity to finish 12-4, make a serious playoff push and scare the living hell out of a lot of other teams in the NFL. The only thing that kept them from advancing probably to the AFC title game was Marty Schottenheimer & Nate Kaeding. Now, fear not AFC North fans, I'm not saying the Browns are making a playoff run this season, but it will be interesting to see how they handle the future QB situation with Derek Anderson's renaissance. Brady Quinn might not see the field without an injury to Anderson in '07.

-- With the first pick, in the 2008 draft, the Miami dolphins select… And if it’s the Rams, they damn well better trade the pick before their fans start calling for a new QB/RB/WR combo.

-- Tim Rattay vs. Vinny Testaverde in the desert. And people wonder why the NFC is considered an inferior conference?

-- I’m not feeling so good about the Diamondbacks in the World Series right now. And even worse about the Sox’ chances of winning it all – considering the Wild Card’s recent history in both leagues. Although I am making plans to be in Jacobs' Field for game five of the ALCS - regardless of the situation. I'll have pictures & hopefully a story (if not a live blog from the park).

Back tomorrow with Rants & Ranks.

Lata.

Labels: 2007, Best Ever?, Domination, NFL, Patriots, random, Wow

posted by Big D @ 8:41 AM 0 comments

2007 NFL Picks - Week Six

Since I've written three times since last week's disatrous post on the Week 5 NFL picks, I'll keep this short and sweet. I'm much worse at this than I thought. Or at least, I was last week. 2-11-1 is completely inexcuseable. That debacle dropped me to well below .500 on the year at 31-39-6 (.408). I've got a lot of work to do to get to my goal of a .600 winning percentage for the season.

As always, Home teams are in CAPS, all lines from Bodoglife.com, and they are accurate as of, well, right about now. Mostly because I spent last night on the computer until 2AM, then suddenly remembered I'd forgotten to post this. Oops.

Bengals (-3) over CHIEFS: I would have felt a lot more comfortable about this pick before I watched the Bengals/Patriots Monday Night game. This is their first time on the field since that game, and I'm not sure if they're any better with the time off.

JAGUARS (-7) over Texans: Easy Teaser Game #1. Houston is falling off fast since their lightning fast start, and the Jags are quietly putting together a relatively good year. Right now, the AFC South could feasibly be sending 3 of 4 teams to the playoffs.

BROWNS (-4) over Dolphins: How fast did this Dolphins team lose it? I can't imagine any scenario under which I'd willingly put money on them, pretty much for the rest of the season. Maybe when they play the Jets or Bills. Maybe.

BEARS (-5) over Vikings: Tough week for Ced Benson. Good week for Brian Griese. Minnesota doesn't let anyone run the ball on them (ranked 1st in rushing defense), but they let everyone pass on them (ranked 30th in pass defense). This should be a nice safe game for the Bears' defense, but I'm still making it Teaser Game #2 just in case.

Eagles (-3.5) over JETS: You know you're getting zero respect when you're hosting a 1-3 team, in one of the most hostile home stadiums in the NFL, and you're still getting three and a half points. Is it Clemens time yet for the Jets? Wake me up when it is.

Rams (+10) over RAVENS: I just don't like that Ravens offense giving up 10-points to anyone, even a team as depleted as the Rams. Id feel better about a (-4) Teaser, but for purposes of a straight spread pick, 10 is too much.

Titans (+3) over BUCS: Tennessee has been relatively healthy thus far into the season, and while they're still struggling on offense, at least they have all their weapons. Plus they have a surprisingly good defense. The Bucs have that nastiness back on defense, but the offense seems to have vanished.

Redskins (+3) over PACKERS: Absolute coin flip. The Pack is giving the -3 only because they're the home team. Otherwise, it's a toss-up. I'm taking the team riding a big win, and that has recently had a bye week to get healthy over the team looking forward to a bye and that can't seem to run the ball.

CARDINALS (-4.5) over Panthers: Please, please, please God let Vinny Testaverde start this game. Just for the sheer comedy alone. Besides, throwing to Steve Smith would be like having a shorter, louder (if that's possible) Keyshawn Johnson.

Patriots @ COWBOYS: Ya know what? Let's come back to this one...

Raiders (+10) over CHARGERS: I don't care about that 41-3 blowout last week - that was just a team blowing off a lot of anger. This Raiders team is sneaky good, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them pull this one out, if not at least cover. Also this is Teaser Game #3.

SEAHAWKS (-7) over Saints: Not sure when the Saints will get win #1, but it ain't gonna be this week.

FALCONS (+3.5) over Giants: Nothing more than a gut feeling, but I think the Falcons could have a big day on offense. They just need their defense to hold up even a little bit.

Now... as for that "other" game...

Patriots (-6) over COWBOYS: First of all, I am wildly disappointed that this is only a 6-point line. I understand that the home team generally gets a field goal in the point spread. But even at Pats (-9), I'd be confident about this. The Cowboys nearly threw away a game to the Bills - THE BILLS! - of all teams. Their coach willingly gave the Patriots bulletin board material (and then immediately backtracked - too late Wade!), and their defense has more holes than a Labyrinth board game. If you don't think the Pats find a way to win this game by at least two scores, you're kidding yourself. And if you're still not confident enough, then tease them to a "Pick-Em" and be happy with the win.

RECAP: Bengals / JAGUARS / BROWNS / BEARS / Eagles / Rams / Titans / Redskins / CARDINALS / Raiders / SEAHAWKS / FALCONS / Patriots

Also, for the record, this will be the first week where I have no monetary interest in any of the games. Bills to pay and all. So expect my picks to go about 11-2 on the week.

Lata.

Labels: 2007, Gambling, It's all about the Benjamins, NFL, NFL Picks, Picks

posted by Big D @ 12:18 PM 0 comments

2007 NFL Season - Week 5 Recap

My mind is moderately fried right now, so let's get right into this:

Labels: 2007, NFL, Playoffs here we come, Rants and Ranks, Recap

posted by Big D @ 4:03 PM 0 comments

Quick MLB Update

Quick MLB update before the Week 5 NFL Rants & Ranks. I know you're all desperate for that. It's coming in a couple hours - I need to get out of this damned shirt and tie first and relax (i.e. drink...) a little.

-- Although no one will believe it, I actually posted in my Blogger's Fantasy League my postseason picks early last week: First round - D-Backs in 4, Phillies in 5 (oops), Red Sox in 5, Indians in 5. I gave the Cubs, Angels & Yankees far too much credit.

-- For the record, I have the World Series as Red Sox over D'backs, and have had that as my pick ever since about late June.

-- I could not be happier and more pissed about the Sox drawing the Indians for the ALCS. From a pure baseball perspective, I would have much rather faced the Yankees and their Gawd-Awful pitching staff. Chien-Ming Wang & Andy Pettite are not nearly as scary as CC Sabathia & Fausto Carmona. But from a fan perspective, the fact that games 3 & 4 are in Cleveland is fantastic, since I only live 2 hours away now. Of course, I can't go to either game because of previous committments, but if there's a Game 5 (which I think there will be - Sox in 6), I am absolutely going to find a way there.

And finally, the "Joe Torre Watch" in New York. There's pretty good debate going in the comments section today on Shanoff's Blog about many things, not the least of which is the Joe Torre situation. At the risk of duplicating someone else's comments (I'm far too lazy to sort through all 100+ so far), here's my take:

1) If Torre's fired, do not be surprised if the following happens:
-- A-Rod opts out to go play for either Lou Pinella (as a shortstop again) or the Angels to put some pop back into the lineup behind Vlad. The Red Sox will probably make a push, but mostly to drive up the price for someone else. They will probably stick with Mike Lowell for 2 more years at 1/10th the overall contract cost of A-Rod. Or they could push for Mark Teixeira and move Youkilis back to third.
-- Jorge Posada leaves for another team. Let's face it - if another team (again, Anaheim jumps to mind, among others) offers him more money, but the Yankees keep the only manager he's ever known, he's staying in pinstripes. But if Torre's gone, he's got to take that last big contract, doesn't he?
-- Mo Rivera gets lowballed, but stays in NY. This is just a hunch - if Torre's gone, the baseball ops people can justify Mo walking because of the young arms they have ready to go. If Torre stays, he's going to demand the veteran arm in the back of the bullpen.

2) As for the question of how best to spend $25M a year if/when A-Rod walks, first let's remember that Texas is kicking in about $6m of that. So the Yankees are "only" saving about $19m. Obviously, that money is best spent on the best player in the game, but why not spend it on, say, Dontrelle Willis or Johan Santana in a year? Or even this year, if they make a push to trade for them?

Back later with the weekly NFL Ranks.
Lata.

Labels: MLB, Playoffs, Rumors, Yankees Red Sox and Everybody Else

posted by Big D @ 2:39 PM 0 comments

Mea Culpa!

As Brian said in the comments from Friday's post... Thank God for the Giants.

Everyone, I'm sorry. I take full responsibility for my less than stellar picks last week. no matter what happens tonight, I cannot have more than 3 correct picks against the spread for the week. In fact, heading into the Monday night game, I'm 2-10-1 for the week; by far, the worst week in my three-plus-year history of picking against the spread. I think my previous worst was a 5-win week back in '04.

Somehow, I stand to actually make money if the Cowboys cover (-4.5) tonight against the Bills - Thank God for the Giants... and sweetheart teasers.

I'll be back tomorrow night with the weekly Rants & Ranks.

Lata.

Labels: 2007, Gambling, I'm awful at this, idiot, NFL, NFL Picks

posted by Big D @ 9:54 AM 0 comments

2007 NFL Picks - Week Five

Real quickly, before the picks, a review of the AL preview I posted back in April. As I wrote in the comments of that post, I'll usually settle for getting the records corerct within 5 games. I think I nailed that pretty well on half the league. In some cases, I was pretty damned close (if not exactly right). In other cases (ahem... the White Sox to win the AL Central with 95 wins... whoops!) I wasn't quite as accurate. Also, thanks to Brian for compiling a definitive ranking of previews from our Blogger's Fantasy Baseball League. I didn't finish first, but I'm still pretty proud of how close I was – two teams exact, one team off by one game, three more off by only two….

Red Sox Predicted: 96-66 Actual finish: 96-66

Angels Predicted: 94-68 Actual finish: 94-68

Yankees Predicted: 93-69 Actual finish: 94-68

Tigers Predicted: 90-72 Actual finish: 88-64

Royals Predicted: 71-91 Actual finish: 69-93

D-Rays Predicted: 68-94 Actual finish: 66-96

We won't discuss the White Sox (missed by 23 games and five places in the division standings), A's (24), Twins (22), Mariners (12), Rangers (9) or Indians (only off by 8, but I had them 4th in the Central). So next year when you're considering an Over/Under bet on season wins (as I was when I was in Vegas in January), maybe take a look over here and see if it helps your decision. Or hurts. Either way, really.

Onto the Week Five picks. Had some better results in Week Four, enough to push me over .500 (woo hoo!), albeit barely. 8-6 last week to move to 29-28-5 for the season. hey, a winning week is a winning week, even if the Steelers cost me a lot of money (not necessarily on the bet, but on the projected winnings - 6 team parlay paying about 48-1 that only missed by the Steelers winning by a TD or more)

As always, home teams in CAPS, and the lines are from Bodog.com (via ESPN.com's Daily Line) and accurate as of about 10:30 this morning.

Cardinals (-3.5) over RAMS: Well, since I’m convinced that the Rams are currently the worst team in the NFL, and considering that they are voluntarily starting Gus Frerotte this week, this seems like the logical pick. Even if it means that I have to trust the Cardinals. Here’s my dilemma – I have Matt Leinart in my “money” fantasy league. St. Louis is pretty much the worst passing defense in the league. But the Cardinals can’t settle on a QB. Is it worth the risk to start Leinart over my other choice – Jason Campbell?

PATRIOTS (-17) over Browns: I still hate giving up more than 2 TD’s in any game, but with this incarnation of the Patriots, I’m not nearly as worried about it. Of course, the whole “former coordinator against his old team” might apply here as well – we saw how well that worked out for the Steelers last week. Gonna be nice having Rodney Harrison back on the field as well – look for him to take someone’s head off early, just to “get back in the rhythm”.

SAINTS (-3.5) over Panthers: I hate this pick. I have no faith in either team to win this game. Basically, I’m picking the home team coming off a bye over the road team with the backup starting QB, even if that backup QB was once-upon-a-time the #1 overall pick in the draft.

GIANTS (-4) over Jets: I could make a lame joke about “picking the ‘home’ team”, but the truth is that I’ve got no idea what to make of the Jets thus far into the season. Maybe it’s a massive karmic boomerang from Mangini’s stoolie episode a month ago. Maybe they just overachieved last season and are reverting to form this week. Fact remains, the Jets have 1 win (over winless Miami), and have been outscored 103-72 in four games. The Giants haven’t exactly been world-beaters, but they’re coming off a good division win, and haven’t looked too bad in 3 of their 4 games this season.

Seahawks (+6.5) over STEELERS: Just because I’m still pissed at Pittsburgh. And because the Seahawks haven’t had a real opponent to shine against yet, and believe me – they still remember the Super Bowl.

Lions (+3.5) over REDSKINS: For the record, I’m starting Jason Campbell over Leinart. I’m sure you were all were waiting with baited breath for that information. The Lions look a lot like last year’s Saints – no one will take them seriously until about Week 14, when they’re sitting at around 9-3 and making plans for a home playoff game. Thanksgiving; Lions against the Packers for the lead in the division… who would’ve believed that during the offseason?

TEXANS (-6) over Dolphins: Boy the Dolphins got bad in a hurry. Not that they were Super Bowl contenders when the season started, but I don’t think anyone thought they’d be this bad. Guess the best option now is to play for the draft and hope to get a big-time piece to rebuild around for ’08. Problem is, should it be a QB, WR, or someone under the age of 30 to start taking over on defense?

TITANS (-8.5) over Falcons: Yes, Atlanta got their first win of the season last week. Congratulations. Savor the moment, but don’t get too used to it – it probably isn’t going to happen more than two or three more times this season. And it certainly ain’t happening this week.

CHIEFS (+2) over Jaguars: I can’t believe I’m making this pick. Three weeks ago, I was convinced that the Chiefs were the worst team in the league, and that the Jaguars were only slightly overrated. Now? I’m willing to concede that if the Chiefs’ offense can produce anything, the defense might be better than previously thought. Plus, I’ve got zero faith in the Jags’ ability to either move the ball on offense or stop the run on defense.

Bucs (+10) over COLTS: Too bad Cadillac is out for the year – this would be one of those renaissance weeks for him, and just good enough to convince fantasy owners that they didn’t waste a pick. The Bucs’ defense is almost back to their dominant days, and the offense is moving the ball effectively. What better team to pick apart the Colts’ “Tampa 2” defense than Tampa Bay? Besides, it’s going to be fun to see the contrasting coaching faces between Tony Dungy & Jon Gruden.

BRONCOS (-1) over Chargers: How many more weeks before the Chargers’ brass starts calling Marty Schottenheimer, trying to pitch the “we were just kidding about the whole ‘you’re fired’ thing”? Five? Three?

Ravens (-3.5) over 49ERS: Ladies and Gentlemen, your “All-Overrated Game” for 2007! Both teams had high expectations. Both teams look to have lost their starting QB for awhile. Both teams currently stink. At least I only picked one of them to win their division, while I had the other just slightly above .500

PACKERS (-3.5) over Bears: Lambeau Field, on the national Sunday Night Football game. Packers 4-0, Bears 1-3 (and crumbling fast). Sorry, I’m taking the Pack.

Cowboys (-11) over BILLS: Aaron Schatz from Football Outsiders just said on a radio interview that this Dallas team is the 4^th best team on their DVOA rankings since they began tracking teams in 1996. (For the record, the ’07 Patriots are #1 and the ’07 Colts are #12). Basically, we’re seeing something pretty damned impressive in terms of domination by a handful of teams. The only thing that scares the hell out of me here is the “trap game” factor – Dallas hosts New England next week, and somehow it’s not a Prime Time game. Tragic.

RECAP: Cardinals / PATRIOTS / SAINTS / GIANTS / Seahawks / Lions / TEXANS / TITANS / CHIEFS/ Bucs / BRONCOS / Ravens / PACKERS / Cowboys

See you again next week folks.

Lata.

Labels: Gambling, It's all about the Benjamins, NFL, NFL Picks, Picks, Tags: 2007

posted by Big D @ 1:44 PM 1 comments

2007 NFL Season - Week 4 Recap

This week's Rants & Ranks. I'm too tired of being at work at 6AM to think of any better introduction.


1) New England (4-0): Just so we're clear - until they lose, or at least beat a team by less than 20 points, they're not getting moved from the top of anyone's rankings, much less a die-hard Pats' fan like me. They've got the best offense. They've got the best defense. That leaves special teams, and let's face it - ST is more or less a crapshoot from week to week. The only thing that scares me is the eerie correlation to the beginning of the 2002 season... The Patriots started 3-0 and outscored their first three opponents 105-59 (including giving up 38 points Week three to the Jets), then promptly proceeded to lose four straight and miss the playoffs after finishing 9-7. Personally, I blame that season on a Super Bowl hangover and Tara Reid.
2) Dallas (4-0): Another week, another offensive clinic. Although they sliced up the Bears en route to this 4-0 start, Chicago doesn't exactly have the defensive cache they did last year. After this week @ Buffalo, the Cowboys have New England, Minnesota, then three straight division games (two on the road) after the bye. If they come out of that stretch 3-2, they're really good. 4-1... they're scary good.
3) Indianapolis (4-0): That's the surgical precision we've been waiting to see from Indy's offense. And they managed to do it against a supposedly good Broncos' team, which is all the more impressive. Not a bad way to reaffirm to the league that, until proven otherwise, you are in fact still the champions.
4) Green Bay (4-0): I think, at this point, I can admit I was pretty wrong about the entire NFC North. Nothing's set in stone yet, but since the Pack would have to finish the year 2-10 to prove me right, I don't feel too bad about admitting my mistake. Could we see GB/Dallas, Indy/NE in the Conference Title Games? It'd be fun to watch, I'll tell you that. Would be great to see GB/NE in the Super Bowl as well, if for no other reason than it would make for great TV 11 years after Brett Favre and the Packers embarrassed New England in the Superdome.
5) Tampa Bay (3-1): Only Jacksonville has allowed fewer points this season (44-34). The difference is, the Bucs have scored 81 to the Jags' 46. Oh, and Jacksonville's also already had their bye week. Among other teams through four games, Pittsburgh (47) and New England (48) are next closest in points allowed. I might have been wrong about the NFC South too. Pretty much, I was wrong about any division that has a Cardinal direction other than East in its name...

Others Receiving Votes: Pittsburgh (bad loss), Detroit (don't trust the defense), Seattle (playing possum)


5) San Diego (1-3): Oh boy are the Chargers in trouble. After the opening week win over the Bears (a game that was a lot closer than the final 14-3 score), they've been beaten down in three successive weeks by New England (understandable), Green Bay (surprising at the time) and now Kansas City (wholly inexcusable). Can't you just see Marty Schottenheimer, Wade Philips and Cam Cameron meeting up after the season, having a frosty beverage, and all just bursting into laughter? Well, maybe not Cam...
4) Chicago (1-3): I'm actually struggling to remember who Chicago beat this season. San Diego... hmm... nope. Dallas? Not even close. Detroit? Not after allowing 34 fourth quarter points... Oh yes, the juggernaut that is the Kansas City Chiefs. And even that one was close for awhile, only broken open by Devin Hester's insane abilities when fielding a kick of any kind.
3) New Orleans (0-3): They didn't win, they didn't lose, they don't move. Maybe the bye week gave them enough time to figure out what the hell was wrong in the first three weeks of the season, because nothing else seems to have woken them up yet.
2) Miami (0-4): They're not too far ahead of their competition for the last spot on this list. It seems like Trent Green was not the answer to solve all the QB woes (shocking though that may be...), and the defense seems to have calcified before our very eyes. Luckily, they've got a few winnable games coming up with Cleveland, Buffalo and the Giants in the next five weeks.
1) St Louis (0-4): I know I said that losing a starting running back wasn't such a big deal in the NFL anymore. I think I may have misspoken. Losing a starting running back when he posted the 5th-best all time yards from scrimmage the previous season is kind of a big deal. Not to mention, the Rams may have lost their starting QB, and their offensive line is in shambles (which may account for the other two losses). They don't have a winnable stretch until weeks 8-10, against Cleveland, The Bye Week, and New Orleans. They should be favored against The Bye Week, but at this point, who knows?

Others receiving votes: Cincinnati (full scale revolt in 3...2...1...), Minnesota (do they even have a quarterback?), Philadelphia (can they play Detroit every week?) NY Jets (Lost to Buffalo... 'nuff said)

See you Friday-ish for the picks.
Lata.

Labels: 2007, NFL, Playoffs here we come, Rants and Ranks, Recap

posted by Big D @ 7:24 AM 0 comments